(Just to say, as below, the Cheltenham Guide Offer for the ‘Donations Club’ will be withdrawn at 12 PM on Thursday, 25/02/16)
Eider Stats/Trends have also been posted up for info. Just click ‘blog’, above, second post down. There are some good ones which should help us all.
No 3m+ chases tomorrow, so no Tips
5.15 Sedge – Seventeen Black – (12/1<)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.15 Hunt – Tommy The Rascal – lines up again here. We backed him at big prices LTO where he was backed, and then withdrawn. Sadly no big price here, but this is a shocker of a race. This is his handicap debut (trainer 2/4 with such types in last year), he is stepping up in trip, gets better ground and has some headgear. He is doing plenty of things differently. If you owned this horse I think you would be disappointed if you couldnt go close in this company – to be blunt.
I hate losing – not sure if you noticed, but I really don’t like it -or more to the point, every race that I analyse I think I should be finding the winner (not necessarily backing the winner mind,this game is about value)
So, there are a few bits to take out of today’s race. I have also dived back into the dream team of Tom George/Paddy Brennan. You will have to indulge me, but then in part you donate for my restless pursuit of perfection 🙂
- Firstly no problems with the selection. The only regret is probably being a bit too enthusiastic with the extra point – given I had a few niggles, as there were with all horses. I thought he traveled well but just didnt pick up. A combo of poor yard form and/or still feeling that last race. He is better than that. We will get our money back on him somewhere, but Russell’s horses should be treated with caution at the moment.
- Well done to Chris – who strongly fancied Grandad’s Horse as a value bet and wasnt wrong. Actually, if Night In Milan had not fallen, he may have backed the winner- as he may have softened up the winner for most of the way – or forced him to go quicker. He ran better than I thought he would. Likewise Andy liked Baileys C at a big price – he was a decent EW bet, albeit I still dont think he quite stays this trip – but, again, he ran better than I thought he would. You lot are a switched on bunch, and I always encourage comments for just this reason – and I like to be challenged in comments- it makes me think harder.
- Grandad’s Horse is worth following as he clearly does like spring ground – despite having decent enough form on soft. He ran a great race and has more wins in him. Another veteran’s chase maybe, or a drop into a C3. Likewise Baileys C – I think he is best over 2m5f or so – but may well find a weaker 3m race he can win – I am not dogmatic as to his stamina questions.
- Godsmejudge – i have had a good chat with Ben Aitken on twitter about this one (he fancied Grandad’s Horse too) and we have decided he should be aimed at the Highland National, Perth – he will get good ground and his best chance of winning again will surely be over a marathon trip – he needs to drop a few more pounds to get into that one. One for the future maybe! Are you reading Mr Dennis!
- Finally – Saint Are – I always reflect on winners, at a price, that I did not go with. There were a few reasons why I was put off and have no problem with that. The weight, the rating (in sense it looked like he may have proved he couldn’t win from OR 141+), the break and whether this was a prep for National. Indeed George said he would come on for the race. Anyway, well done to the horse, a great performance, leading all the way. He showed some class and guts there, against two better treated rivals. Is he still improving?!?
Onto Tom George and Paddy Brennan… I had to go back into HRB after another winner for the team. (this angle wouldnt have found him mind, long term the older horses,aged 8+, are not worth backing systematically – you have to pick them carefully)
I can go into more detail in next week’s diary post (albeit I will be moving back up North on Monday/Tuesday) but for now, the following angle is worth adding into the portfolio and one I will add into the ‘Other’ category straight away…
- Tom George Trained/Paddy Brennan Riding
- Handicap Chases
- Horse Aged 4-7 Only
RunsWINS In All Chases: 0 or 1 ONLY
- Class 1-4 Only
TO NOTE: The Cheltenham Guide, as part of the Donations Club Offer, will be withdrawn at Midday on Thursday, 25/02/16. So, if you want to join ‘The Club’, best do it now, so that you can get your guide thrown in 🙂 (there will be other complimentary guides in the future also)
You Can Join My Weekly/Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (and get your complimentary Cheltenham Guide)
PLEASE NOTE: WHEN JOINING THE DONATIONS CLUB YOU SHOULD RECEIVE AN EMAIL ASKING YOU TO JOIN MY LIST, AT WHICH POINT YOU SHOULD GET SENT THE WELCOME EMAIL, WITH GUIDE, STRAIGHT AWAY. IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING, PLEASE DO EMAIL ME AND I WILL SORT IT OUT. THERE CAN BE PROBLEMS WITH MY SYSTEM AND CERTAIN EMAIL ADDRESSES. Thanks, and apologies in advance. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org – or just hit reply to any of the emails I have sent you.
ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…
Here you go Josh, I can’t stop backing winners, I would be happy to contribute… 🙂