Members Report: 25/02/16 (COMPLETE)

(Just to say, as below, the Cheltenham Guide Offer for the ‘Donations Club’ will be withdrawn at 12 PM on Thursday, 25/02/16) 


Eider Stats/Trends have also been posted up for info. Just click ‘blog’, above, second post down. There are some good ones which should help us all. 



No 3m+ chases tomorrow, so no Tips



Jumps Handicappers

5.15 Sedge – Seventeen Black – (12/1<) 



2.15 Hunt – Tommy The Rascal –  lines up again here. We backed him at big prices LTO where he was backed, and then withdrawn. Sadly no big price here, but this is a shocker of a race. This is his handicap debut (trainer 2/4 with such types in last year), he is stepping up in trip, gets better ground and has some headgear. He is doing plenty of things differently. If you owned this horse I think you would be disappointed if you couldnt go close in this company – to be blunt. 


Quick re-cap

I hate losing – not sure if you noticed, but I really don’t like it -or more to the point, every race that I analyse I think I should be finding the winner (not necessarily backing the winner mind,this game is about value) 

So, there are a few bits to take out of today’s race. I have also dived back into the dream team of Tom George/Paddy Brennan. You will have to indulge me, but then in part you donate for my restless pursuit of perfection 🙂 

  • Firstly no problems with the selection. The only regret is probably being a bit too enthusiastic with the extra point – given I had a few niggles, as there were with all horses. I thought he traveled well but just didnt pick up. A combo of poor yard form and/or still feeling that last race. He is better than that. We will get our money back on him somewhere, but Russell’s horses should be treated with caution at the moment. 
  • Well done to Chris – who strongly fancied Grandad’s Horse as a value bet and wasnt wrong. Actually, if Night In Milan had not fallen, he may have backed the winner- as he may have softened up the winner for most of the way – or forced him to go quicker. He ran better than I thought he would. Likewise Andy liked Baileys C at a big price – he was a decent EW bet, albeit I still dont think he quite stays this trip – but, again, he ran better than I thought he would. You lot are a switched on bunch, and I always encourage comments for just this reason – and I like to be challenged in comments- it makes me think harder. 
  • Grandad’s Horse is worth following as he clearly does like spring ground – despite having decent enough form on soft. He ran a great race and has more wins in him. Another veteran’s chase maybe, or a drop into a C3. Likewise Baileys C – I think he is best over 2m5f or so – but may well find a weaker 3m race he can win – I am not dogmatic as to his stamina questions. 
  • Godsmejudge – i have had a good chat with Ben Aitken on twitter about this one (he fancied Grandad’s Horse too) and we have decided he should be aimed at the Highland National, Perth – he will get good ground and his best chance of winning again will surely be over a marathon trip – he needs to drop a few more pounds to get into that one. One for the future maybe! Are you reading Mr Dennis! 
  • Finally – Saint Are – I always reflect on winners, at a price, that I did not go with. There were a few reasons why I was put off and have no problem with that. The weight, the rating (in sense it looked like he may have proved he couldn’t win from OR 141+), the break and whether this was a prep for National. Indeed George said he would come on for the race. Anyway, well done to the horse, a great performance, leading all the way. He showed some class and guts there, against two better treated rivals. Is he still improving?!?



Onto Tom George and Paddy Brennan… I had to go back into HRB after another winner for the team. (this angle wouldnt have found him mind, long term the older horses,aged 8+, are not worth backing systematically – you have to pick them carefully)

I can go into more detail in next week’s diary post (albeit I will be moving back up North on Monday/Tuesday) but for now, the following angle is worth adding into the portfolio and one I will add into the ‘Other’ category straight away…

  • Tom George Trained/Paddy Brennan Riding 
  • Handicap Chases 
  • Horse Aged 4-7 Only 
  • Horse Runs WINS In All Chases: 0 or 1 ONLY 
  • Class 1-4 Only 
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) MxOdd A/E  
ALL 163 50 30.67 97.83 82 50.31 60.02 126.33 77.51 47.07 51.00 1.46  
2016 2 1 50 2.5 1 50 125 2.49 124.33 0.03 9.00 3.03  
2015 33 10 30.3 25.39 14 42.42 76.94 33.76 102.31 4.64 26.00 1.39  
2014 35 13 37.14 36.5 18 51.43 104.29 43.17 123.34 12.48 21.00 1.83  
2013 27 6 22.22 3.7 10 37.04 13.7 4.19 15.53 -5.03 21.00 1.18  
2012 40 15 37.5 29.86 26 65 74.65 39.66 99.14 18.6 17.00 1.62  
2011 18 4 22.22 -2.12 9 50 -11.78 -1.29 -7.16 2.79 17.00 0.95  
2010 8 1 12.5 2 4 50 25 4.35 54.41 13.56 51.00 0.85  




TO NOTE: The Cheltenham Guide, as part of the Donations Club Offer, will be withdrawn at Midday on Thursday, 25/02/16. So, if you want to join ‘The Club’, best do it now, so that you can get your guide thrown in 🙂 (there will be other complimentary guides in the future also) 

You Can Join My Weekly/Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (and get your complimentary Cheltenham Guide)









Here you go Josh, I can’t stop backing winners, I would be happy to contribute… 🙂 

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE


Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. Thanks for the kind words, Josh, they are needed at the moment! Powerful micro you’ve given us, which I expect will reward us this spring.

  2. The Jonjo Dickie Johnson T & J Combo has one runner on Thursday, 5.05 Huntingdon with Top Priority at 10/1 present.

  3. I’ve been thinking lately that Buywise could win the Grand National. He’s the horse who doesn’t know when he’s beaten and the National could be the test to bring out the best in him

    Bookmark this – heard it here first, hahahah!!

    1. Not a bad shout Ali and he had crossed my mind! Mainly because of how he stayed LTO – Williams seeming to suggest he may have been running him over the wrong trip! Evan knows what is needed as well – forget horse that he had placed numerous times (cadre..cadeau something) Has he won a race over 3m yet? think he may have to to qualify? or in any case there is probably some previous win stat over x distance which is an indicator for this race. Maybe he has been a national horse all along! Wonder about his running style there though – cant be help up too far back in all races over these fences – and given some of his jumping, there may be problems!

  4. Nice bit of all weather action today, i’m having ago on two s.c williams horses 4:20 lingfield invade and 6:10 chelmsford welease bwian. The yard is going well so far this year in handicaps so might get lucky lol i’m also having a bet on athletic 3:45 lingfield, danny brock can get some big priced winners and places on lower grade aw races i wont hold my breath tho. Good luck with whatever you’re backing today 🙂

    1. Not totally sure if I have ever put the words ‘nice bit’ and ‘all-weather’ in same sentence before haha 🙂 Good luck! Invade is a qualifier for my Williams micro that was in my AW Guide, from early December. Has done well this winter.

  5. Hi Josh. In the Nicky Richards video you briefly touched on the record of Kenneth Slack in NH handicaps and said something like he could be of interest in Class 4/5 events. I notice that he has 3 quite well fancied runners at Sedgefield today; and he’s had 5 winners from 15 handicap runners there in the two years he’s been training (3 out of 4 in chases). I’ve done them all singly but it might make a nice combo bet as well.

    1. Hi Graham – yep, he looks like a small yard that the market has yet to bother with! Myabe that is changing. I havent dived into him in any depth yet, but his over handicap stats for now suggest that is a good enough guide. Good luck with those, I will be watching closely! (no doubt I have missed any value!)

      1. Cheers Graham for highlighting those – 2/3 will do and safe to say i would have forgotten about those stats had you not commented! I couldnt resist singles on them all in the end, for fun money. Glad I did. Hope you may have had a trixie or something – alas I did not! Not sure what that paid, all 3 around 3/1.

  6. Win draw or learn something! A wise man once said lol but I is glad u like to reflect, me just noticed something….

    First off, Saint Are, the only horse in the race yesterday previously entered for RSA chase albeit 2012, one hell of a consistent horse he’s ran good times the last 7 times he’s ran, is he improving? He might come on for the run a bit but I couldn’t give him any more than the 161 he got in last year’s National but while I was looking that up…..

    Did I tell u I fancied Mendip Express for the big one? He just moved to Hobbs’ yard & is set to carry same weight as Saint Are but just have a look at Oscar Times’ Becher Chase of 2014, ME beat SA 4l’s giving him a stone – fancy him a bit more now!

    « 1 Oscar Time (IRE) 25/1 13 10-12 Robert Waley-Cohen 136 129 145 154/p »
    b g Oscar (IRE) – Baywatch Star (IRE) (Supreme Leader)
    Mr S Waley-Cohen3

    Chased leaders, 2nd approaching 2 out, upsides last, soon led, held on gamely closing stages

    « 2 ¾ Mendip Express (IRE) 12/1 8 11-6 t Harry Fry 144 136 154 161/p »
    b/br g King’s Theatre (IRE) – Mulberry (IRE) (Denel)
    Mr W Biddick3

    Held up in rear, good headway 17th, 3rd 2 out, 2nd elbow, kept on towards finish (tchd 11/1)

    « 3 3 Saint Are (FR) 12/1 8 10-6 t Tom George 127 116 133 141 »
    b/br g Network (GER) – Fortanea (FR) (Video Rock)
    Denis O’Regan

    Chased leaders, outpaced and 7th 2 out, stayed on to take 3rd last 75yds

    1. Indeed – i pride myself on my reflective ability! (not that I always remember what I had reflected on previously!!)

      Good stuff again Andy – an interesting stable move that – he is another for Rooney’s is he? or do I have that wrong. They have some lovely chasing types spread around some bloody good chase trainers.

      Ah I remember Oscar Time, tipped on here 🙂 – you have to reminisce about the 33/1 winners, dont get many! I can picture MEs run actually and I dont think stamina will be a problem. I havent really looked at the race yet and need to do some trends/stats analysis – probably worth doing a big one 1997 onwards – and then last 8 years or so – feels like it is becoming a race for classier horses, certainly the quality keeps going up.

  7. I just took 95/s on betfair, already got 66/s & still readily available – I know what ur saying classier race etc but he 7/s for the Foxhunter, a place there & the 66/s bye bye… I got a mole in yard with ears to the ground to find out who Dickie 10 5 will be riding…

    1. Interesting thoughts Andy. He still needs to qualify for the Foxhunters apparently although that shouldn’t be a problem but needs to do it on Sunday at Fontwell. Would be interesting to know the stats on horses appearing in that and the National.

  8. Betbright Chase – Le Reve ticks plenty of boxes in the trends for me Josh
    Good recent form, “2nd in this last year, top five in the betting and high in the weights..
    6/1 at minute

    1. you may well be right there, yet to look (tomorrow afternoon’s task!) – he does have a clear profile as a horse, but depending on final no of runners etc, he should be fine. He ran really well LTO for us, and had a bit in hand there – jumped super as well. Have done full trends for Daily Punt, but cant publish link on blog until they have emailed them out! tomorrow hopefully.

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