Saturday Big Race Trends + Stats

This Saturday we have two cracking 3m+ chases to get stuck into. 

We have the Betbright Chase (handicap) from Kempton (formerly Racing Post Chase) which I will preview for my Daily Punt column. I hope to get the link up to those stats/trends tomorrow. 

For now, we have the Eider Chase, and there are a few eye-catching stats which should help in our quest…

***

2.50 Newcastle: Eider Chase

15 Renewals since 1997

222 runners, 52 placed horses

***

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

• Nothing too significant
  • 10/15 Top 4 LTO
    • 10/136, 24 places…67% winners…61% runners…46% places
  • Fell: 1/4, 1 place
  • PU: 2/25, 4 places

Horse Age

• 15/15 aged 11 or under
  • 11yo: 1/29, 6 places…7% winners…13% runners…12% places
  • 12yo+ : 0/21, 4 places

Days Since Run

• Nothing too significant
  • 1-15 days: 5/42, 8 places
  • 16-30: 7/74, 18 places
  • 31-60: 2/82, 21 places
  • 61-90: 1/14, 4 places
  • 91+ : 0/7, 0 places

Horse Weight

• Nothing too significant
  • 10-00 or less (inc jockey claims): 1/62, 13 places…7% winners…28% runners…25% places

Horse Official Rating

• OR 120 or less: 1/91, 17 places…7% winners…41% runners…33% places

Season Runs

• Nothing significant

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

• 15/15 won over 24.5f or further previously
  • 0/40, 9 places had not

Position In Market

• Nothing too significant
  • 10/15 Top 3 in market
    • 10/53, 23 places…67% winners…24% runners…4% places

Odds

• 50/1+ : 0/16, 0 places

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

• GB: 2/75, 15 places
• IRE: 11/119, 30 places
• FR: 2/23, 7 places

Headgear

• CP: 1/22, 4 places
• Blink: 2/30, 9 places
• Visor: 0/8, 0 places

Weight (excl J-Claim)

• 11-12: 3/12, 4 places
• 10-10 or less: 2/119, 23 places…13% winners…54% runners…44% places
• 10-11 or more: 13/102,29 places…87% winners…46% runners…56% places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

• Top 5 in weights: 13/83,28 places…87% winners…37% runners…54% places
• 6 or lower: 2/139, 24 places…13% winners…63% runners…46% places

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

• 0: 0/10, 1 places

H – Run (career)

• 23+ : 2/67, 14 places…13% winners…30% winners…27% places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

• 14+ handicap wins: 2/78, 15 places…13% winners…35% runners…29% places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

• 17+ chases: 1/55, 8 places…7% winners…25% runners…15% places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

• 12+ handicap chase runs: 0/63, 9 places

H- Run (track)

• 15/15 had 0 or 1 run only at track
  • 2+ : 0/61, 7 places

H- Run (Track-NH Code)

• 15/15 had NEVER Run over fences here
  • 1+ : 0/88, 12 places…40% runners…23% places

H-Run (Last Win)

• 9/15 had won at least one of last 2 starts
  • 9/85, 22 places…60% winners…38% runners…42% places

H-Run (Last Placing)

• Had NOT placed on at least one of last 4 starts: 0/26, 2 places

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

• 0: 0/16, 4 places
• 8+ : 0/15, 1 place

H-Win (NH Race Type).

• 0: 0/24, 5 places

H-Win (Track)

• 15/15 no wins at track
  • 1+ : 0/53, 7 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

• 13/15 had won at least once in previous 3 runs
  • 13/152, 40 places…87% winners…68% runners…77% places

Distance Move

• Up 1.5f or further from last run: 0/28, 2 places

Highest Class Win

• Yet to win above C4: 0/25, 3 places

H-Places (NH Race type)

• 10+ places in chase races (inc wins): 0/29, 3 places

Jockey Claims

• 1lb: 0/1, 1 place
• 3lbs: 0/26, 5 places
• 5lbs: 1/25, 8 places
• 7lbs: 0/9, 1 place

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

• Hurdle: 2/19, 3 places

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

• G2: 3/9, 3 places
• G3: 2/18, 7 places

 (LR) Track

• Carlisle: 2/7, 2 places
• Catt: 2/17, 5 places
• Gowran: 2/5, 3 places
• 1 win each: Kelso/Chepstow/Ayr/Punch/Chelt/Exet/Donc
• Newcastle: 0/17, 3 places
• Warwick: 0/16, 3 places
• Wetherby: 0/14/2 places

Trainers (of interest)

• No trainer has won this more than once to date.
• D Pipe: 1/3, 1 place
• V Williams: 1/6, 2 places
• Mrs Sue Smith: 0/12, 0 places
• Hobbs: 0/5, 4 places
• Jonjo: 0/8, 3 places
• NTD: 0/5, 2 places
• T George: 0/5, 0 places

***

THE WINNING PROFILE?

• 11 or fewer handicap chase runs
• Never run at track over fences, no more than 1 run here in total
• Up 1m1.5f or more from last run a negative
• 9 or fewer places (inc wins) in all chases
• Top 5 in weights a big positive (exc jockey claims)
• Placed on at least one of last 4 starts
• Won over 24.5f before is a positive (although placed runners for those not have done this means not a stat to be dogmatic about)

***

Shortlist?

Using that profile as a guide (ignoring final bullet for now, and top 5 in weights) we have…

TO FOLLOW (too many to go through at moment and I don’t really bet AP)

Doesn’t stop you of course!