Saturday Big Race Trends + Stats

This Saturday we have two cracking 3m+ chases to get stuck into. 

We have the Betbright Chase (handicap) from Kempton (formerly Racing Post Chase) which I will preview for my Daily Punt column. I hope to get the link up to those stats/trends tomorrow. 

For now, we have the Eider Chase, and there are a few eye-catching stats which should help in our quest…

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2.50 Newcastle: Eider Chase

15 Renewals since 1997

222 runners, 52 placed horses

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CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • Nothing too significant
    • 10/15 Top 4 LTO
      • 10/136, 24 places…67% winners…61% runners…46% places
    • Fell: 1/4, 1 place
    • PU: 2/25, 4 places

Horse Age

  • 15/15 aged 11 or under
    • 11yo: 1/29, 6 places…7% winners…13% runners…12% places
    • 12yo+ : 0/21, 4 places

Days Since Run

  • Nothing too significant
    • 1-15 days: 5/42, 8 places
    • 16-30: 7/74, 18 places
    • 31-60: 2/82, 21 places
    • 61-90: 1/14, 4 places
    • 91+ : 0/7, 0 places

Horse Weight

  • Nothing too significant
    • 10-00 or less (inc jockey claims): 1/62, 13 places…7% winners…28% runners…25% places

Horse Official Rating

  • OR 120 or less: 1/91, 17 places…7% winners…41% runners…33% places

Season Runs

  • Nothing significant

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

  • 15/15 won over 24.5f or further previously
    • 0/40, 9 places had not

Position In Market

  • Nothing too significant
    • 10/15 Top 3 in market
      • 10/53, 23 places…67% winners…24% runners…4% places

Odds

  • 50/1+ : 0/16, 0 places

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 2/75, 15 places
  • IRE: 11/119, 30 places
  • FR: 2/23, 7 places

Headgear

  • CP: 1/22, 4 places
  • Blink: 2/30, 9 places
  • Visor: 0/8, 0 places

Weight (excl J-Claim)

  • 11-12: 3/12, 4 places
  • 10-10 or less: 2/119, 23 places…13% winners…54% runners…44% places
  • 10-11 or more: 13/102,29 places…87% winners…46% runners…56% places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Top 5 in weights: 13/83,28 places…87% winners…37% runners…54% places
  • 6 or lower: 2/139, 24 places…13% winners…63% runners…46% places

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

  • 0: 0/10, 1 places

H – Run (career)

  • 23+ : 2/67, 14 places…13% winners…30% winners…27% places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 14+ handicap wins: 2/78, 15 places…13% winners…35% runners…29% places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 17+ chases: 1/55, 8 places…7% winners…25% runners…15% places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 12+ handicap chase runs: 0/63, 9 places

H- Run (track)

  • 15/15 had 0 or 1 run only at track
    • 2+ : 0/61, 7 places

H- Run (Track-NH Code)

  • 15/15 had NEVER Run over fences here
    • 1+ : 0/88, 12 places…40% runners…23% places

H-Run (Last Win)

  • 9/15 had won at least one of last 2 starts
    • 9/85, 22 places…60% winners…38% runners…42% places

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • Had NOT placed on at least one of last 4 starts: 0/26, 2 places

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 0: 0/16, 4 places
  • 8+ : 0/15, 1 place

H-Win (NH Race Type).

  • 0: 0/24, 5 places

H-Win (Track)

  • 15/15 no wins at track
    • 1+ : 0/53, 7 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

  • 13/15 had won at least once in previous 3 runs
    • 13/152, 40 places…87% winners…68% runners…77% places

Distance Move

  • Up 1.5f or further from last run: 0/28, 2 places

Highest Class Win

  • Yet to win above C4: 0/25, 3 places

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 10+ places in chase races (inc wins): 0/29, 3 places

Jockey Claims

  • 1lb: 0/1, 1 place
  • 3lbs: 0/26, 5 places
  • 5lbs: 1/25, 8 places
  • 7lbs: 0/9, 1 place

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

  • Hurdle: 2/19, 3 places

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

  • G2: 3/9, 3 places
  • G3: 2/18, 7 places

 (LR) Track

  • Carlisle: 2/7, 2 places
  • Catt: 2/17, 5 places
  • Gowran: 2/5, 3 places
  • 1 win each: Kelso/Chepstow/Ayr/Punch/Chelt/Exet/Donc
  • Newcastle: 0/17, 3 places
  • Warwick: 0/16, 3 places
  • Wetherby: 0/14/2 places

Trainers (of interest)

  • No trainer has won this more than once to date.
  • D Pipe: 1/3, 1 place
  • V Williams: 1/6, 2 places
  • Mrs Sue Smith: 0/12, 0 places
  • Hobbs: 0/5, 4 places
  • Jonjo: 0/8, 3 places
  • NTD: 0/5, 2 places
  • T George: 0/5, 0 places

***

THE WINNING PROFILE?

  • 11 or fewer handicap chase runs
  • Never run at track over fences, no more than 1 run here in total
  • Up 1m1.5f or more from last run a negative
  • 9 or fewer places (inc wins) in all chases
  • Top 5 in weights a big positive (exc jockey claims)
  • Placed on at least one of last 4 starts
  • Won over 24.5f before is a positive (although placed runners for those not have done this means not a stat to be dogmatic about)

***

Shortlist?

Using that profile as a guide (ignoring final bullet for now, and top 5 in weights) we have…

TO FOLLOW (too many to go through at moment and I don’t really bet AP)

Doesn’t stop you of course!

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

4 Comments

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  • Looking forward to your selection Josh as hoping to make the long journey up North from Surrey to enjoy a good days racing and meeting up with a few southern exiles and a few beers of course… A nice winner of the big race would of course ice the cake !!!!

    Kevin 1 year ago Reply


    • I will try my best Kevin – some strong stats pointers which always helps! That is a long trek!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


    • lets hope the frost covers work for you….fingers crossed!

      great race with a great tradition and desperately sad what they (ARC) are doing to the Course there.

      Ian 1 year ago Reply


  • Looked thru the stats/trends and in particular the course hoodoo and near the top of the weights and Ballyculla stands out. Through one thing or the or the other this whittles down pretty quick. Do previous winners count as a negative ‘cos if they don’t then that’s the only other horse who comes out well. (Milborough)

    Andy 1 year ago Reply


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