This Saturday we have two cracking 3m+ chases to get stuck into.
We have the Betbright Chase (handicap) from Kempton (formerly Racing Post Chase) which I will preview for my Daily Punt column. I hope to get the link up to those stats/trends tomorrow.
For now, we have the Eider Chase, and there are a few eye-catching stats which should help in our quest…
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2.50 Newcastle: Eider Chase
15 Renewals since 1997
222 runners, 52 placed horses
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CHECKLIST
TRENDS
Previous Place
- Nothing too significant
- 10/15 Top 4 LTO
- 10/136, 24 places…67% winners…61% runners…46% places
- Fell: 1/4, 1 place
- PU: 2/25, 4 places
- 10/15 Top 4 LTO
Horse Age
- 15/15 aged 11 or under
- 11yo: 1/29, 6 places…7% winners…13% runners…12% places
- 12yo+ : 0/21, 4 places
Days Since Run
- Nothing too significant
- 1-15 days: 5/42, 8 places
- 16-30: 7/74, 18 places
- 31-60: 2/82, 21 places
- 61-90: 1/14, 4 places
- 91+ : 0/7, 0 places
Horse Weight
- Nothing too significant
- 10-00 or less (inc jockey claims): 1/62, 13 places…7% winners…28% runners…25% places
Horse Official Rating
- OR 120 or less: 1/91, 17 places…7% winners…41% runners…33% places
Season Runs
- Nothing significant
Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over
- 15/15 won over 24.5f or further previously
- 0/40, 9 places had not
Position In Market
- Nothing too significant
- 10/15 Top 3 in market
- 10/53, 23 places…67% winners…24% runners…4% places
- 10/15 Top 3 in market
Odds
- 50/1+ : 0/16, 0 places
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OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Origin of Horse
- GB: 2/75, 15 places
- IRE: 11/119, 30 places
- FR: 2/23, 7 places
Headgear
- CP: 1/22, 4 places
- Blink: 2/30, 9 places
- Visor: 0/8, 0 places
Weight (excl J-Claim)
- 11-12: 3/12, 4 places
- 10-10 or less: 2/119, 23 places…13% winners…54% runners…44% places
- 10-11 or more: 13/102,29 places…87% winners…46% runners…56% places
Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –
- Top 5 in weights: 13/83,28 places…87% winners…37% runners…54% places
- 6 or lower: 2/139, 24 places…13% winners…63% runners…46% places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H (Horse) -Run (90 days)
- 0: 0/10, 1 places
H – Run (career)
- 23+ : 2/67, 14 places…13% winners…30% winners…27% places
H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)
- 14+ handicap wins: 2/78, 15 places…13% winners…35% runners…29% places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
- 17+ chases: 1/55, 8 places…7% winners…25% runners…15% places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
- 12+ handicap chase runs: 0/63, 9 places
H- Run (track)
- 15/15 had 0 or 1 run only at track
- 2+ : 0/61, 7 places
H- Run (Track-NH Code)
- 15/15 had NEVER Run over fences here
- 1+ : 0/88, 12 places…40% runners…23% places
H-Run (Last Win)
- 9/15 had won at least one of last 2 starts
- 9/85, 22 places…60% winners…38% runners…42% places
H-Run (Last Placing)
- Had NOT placed on at least one of last 4 starts: 0/26, 2 places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (Career)
- 0: 0/16, 4 places
- 8+ : 0/15, 1 place
H-Win (NH Race Type).
- 0: 0/24, 5 places
H-Win (Track)
- 15/15 no wins at track
- 1+ : 0/53, 7 places
Miscellaneous 2
Best in Three Runs
- 13/15 had won at least once in previous 3 runs
- 13/152, 40 places…87% winners…68% runners…77% places
Distance Move
- Up 1.5f or further from last run: 0/28, 2 places
Highest Class Win
- Yet to win above C4: 0/25, 3 places
H-Places (NH Race type)
- 10+ places in chase races (inc wins): 0/29, 3 places
Jockey Claims
- 1lb: 0/1, 1 place
- 3lbs: 0/26, 5 places
- 5lbs: 1/25, 8 places
- 7lbs: 0/9, 1 place
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR)-last run – NH Race Type
- Hurdle: 2/19, 3 places
(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst
- G2: 3/9, 3 places
- G3: 2/18, 7 places
(LR) Track
- Carlisle: 2/7, 2 places
- Catt: 2/17, 5 places
- Gowran: 2/5, 3 places
- 1 win each: Kelso/Chepstow/Ayr/Punch/Chelt/Exet/Donc
- Newcastle: 0/17, 3 places
- Warwick: 0/16, 3 places
- Wetherby: 0/14/2 places
Trainers (of interest)
- No trainer has won this more than once to date.
- D Pipe: 1/3, 1 place
- V Williams: 1/6, 2 places
- Mrs Sue Smith: 0/12, 0 places
- Hobbs: 0/5, 4 places
- Jonjo: 0/8, 3 places
- NTD: 0/5, 2 places
- T George: 0/5, 0 places
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THE WINNING PROFILE?
- 11 or fewer handicap chase runs
- Never run at track over fences, no more than 1 run here in total
- Up 1m1.5f or more from last run a negative
- 9 or fewer places (inc wins) in all chases
- Top 5 in weights a big positive (exc jockey claims)
- Placed on at least one of last 4 starts
- Won over 24.5f before is a positive (although placed runners for those not have done this means not a stat to be dogmatic about)
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Shortlist?
Using that profile as a guide (ignoring final bullet for now, and top 5 in weights) we have…
TO FOLLOW (too many to go through at moment and I don’t really bet AP)
Doesn’t stop you of course!
4 Responses
Looking forward to your selection Josh as hoping to make the long journey up North from Surrey to enjoy a good days racing and meeting up with a few southern exiles and a few beers of course… A nice winner of the big race would of course ice the cake !!!!
I will try my best Kevin – some strong stats pointers which always helps! That is a long trek!
lets hope the frost covers work for you….fingers crossed!
great race with a great tradition and desperately sad what they (ARC) are doing to the Course there.
Looked thru the stats/trends and in particular the course hoodoo and near the top of the weights and Ballyculla stands out. Through one thing or the or the other this whittles down pretty quick. Do previous winners count as a negative ‘cos if they don’t then that’s the only other horse who comes out well. (Milborough)