Members Report: 09/02/16 (COMPLETE)

There is a mixture of all sorts below to flick through… 

 

Proud Gamble ran a fine race and at the prices was a decent bet as it turned out. He ran well in second and just struggled to pick up the leader who had a bit in reserve and pulled away again. He was maybe still  a tad green/babyish at times but also may have just got bogged down near the end. On slightly better ground he could be better again. He will win a weak chase or two, and I just hope he is a backable price! The winner was the main danger and I know some of you had savers on him and/or backed the selection EW. Well done if that was you.

I do enjoy it when readers make more money on a race than me – genuinely, I do! That is the point of my approach, to allow you to interpret and engage with a race in a way that suits you etc. 

MICRO SYSTEM ALERT…

One of you had a saver on that winner above because you remembered one of my micro angles I have shared in recent months…

  • James Reveley
  • Handicap Chases
  • 2m7f- 3m2f
  • Class 2-5
  • Oct-April (main NH season)
  • 20/1 or shorter
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E  
ALL 163 42 25.77 144.57 80 49.08 180.67 110.84 81.65 1.53  
2016 3 0 0 -3 1 33.33 -3 -100 -1.06 0  
2015 24 5 20.83 26.66 9 37.5 29.46 122.75 5.55 1.34  
2014 27 10 37.04 29.58 18 66.67 34.93 129.36 16.56 1.7  
2013 22 8 36.36 59.25 10 45.45 75.84 344.73 21.21 2.21  
2012 30 4 13.33 -2.5 14 46.67 0.41 1.37 16.27 0.99  
2011 36 11 30.56 32.58 21 58.33 40.26 111.82 19.41 1.65  
2010 21 4 19.05 2 7 33.33 2.78 13.23 3.71 1.32  

 

That young man has a bloody good clock in his head and is very good at getting horses jumping – both vital the further you go and no surprise he is the 3m+ chase king when it comes to piloting.

***

TIPS...no 3m+ chases tomorrow that I could see and as such no tips. Its all about discipline and specialisation this game – well, it has been so far this jumps season! 

***

I am off to Liverpool tomorrow flat hunting. I have been away from there for 18 months or so (having lived up there for 7 years aged 18-25) and well this Suffolk boy would quite like to get back! I have a 5 hour trainer ride and will try and find ways to pass the time. 

***

A NEW BLOG to get stuck into…One of you fine readers, David, a Yorkshire Chap I believe who has already sent through a few donations, has his own blog. It is very different from this and in general is an entertaining and enlightening read. He has a fine writing style that I rather enjoyed. I am sure he may say hello in the comments. 

READ HIS ‘MUG PUNTING’ BLOG HERE

I think some of you will find it an enjoyable and entertaining read. Enjoy. 

(literally no catches here!, its just a bloody good read!) 

***

Oh, some horses….

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Feb Trainers

2.55 Sedg – Bennys Well (any odds) UP

Jumps Handicappers

3.35 Market R – Spencer Lea (14/1<) WON 7/2> 9/4 (not sure if bigger evening before, I didnt look, but 7/2 widely available in morning) 

***

Cheltenham…

I have been busy pulling together my stats guide for the Handicaps and I would like to think I have found some gems. I have gone through all 10 handicaps with my ‘trends checklist’ that I know many of you are familiar with (have you not watched the video?!). I have also applied that list to all handicap chases, and all handicap hurdles (excluding the Novice handicap chase and the Fred Winter – more unexposed horses that may skew some of the general stats) The aim with these lists is to find some negatives that we can apply. 

So, looking at Handicap Hurdles, last 5 festivals. 

-Those that ran in a chase LTO are 0/44, 4 place. 

-raced at Ascot LTO – oh dear – 0/32, 2 places. 

-raced at Newbury LTO – dear oh dear – 0/72, 11 places

-Dropping in class from last run (a drop of 1 class can be a G3 to a Listed)…well, of those that raced in a UK/irish race LTO…0/95, 4 places. 

They are exiting stats, well for a stats nerd like me. And there are plenty more where they came from. 

So, you have that to look forward to later in the week. There will be a free report including the Coral Cup, and a selection of other stats, so even if you don’t buy the full version you should have plenty to get stuck into. 

***

THANKS AGAIN…to all of you who have donated. 15 of you have signed up to a monthly option already and many of you continue to chip in on a daily basis. Cheers. 

If you do sign up to a monthly option you get the Cheltenham Stats Pack for free!….

***

I will repeat yesterday’s Donations Message/email in case you missed it….

A NEW DAWN HAS ARRIVED….

I am of course talking about my new ‘Donations’ approach to the blog. I don’t know if many others do this but I am hoping it is a decent model moving forwards that will allow all of you to engage with the blog in a way that suits you – and what,if anything, you donate will depend very much on that engagement. 

Why Donations? 

Well, as you know I have been floating the idea of a monthly subscription model to help keep the blog going. This was for one main reason really…

I could not afford to keep the blog at its current level of activity without it making me any money. That is the blunt truth.

As I would hope is apparent, the blog and associated activity (research/free reports etc) takes up an awful lot of time. Now, that is not a complaint because I really enjoy it – hence why I spend so much time on it! But, if it failed to make me an income of sorts I would have to cut back. And well, I really don’t want to do that. If anything I want to make it even better. 

Linked to that of course is the fact that I think the ‘product’ is worth X amount per month. I am confident that those of you who have followed me/the blog for any amount of time would agree with that. Certainly that was indicated in my recent survey (which I am still to analyse and share – I will!) 

Now, once I decided to put the idea of subscriptions on the back-burner I tried to think of something I could introduce now. And hence the ‘Donations Club’ as I will term it, was born. 

Quite simply this relies on you all being honest with how you engage with the blog and the value/benefit (financial or not) that you place/derive from that engagement. If everyone is honest enough – from the 50p punters, to the £50 punters, to all those in between, and those that may just like reading the blog and/or using some of the systems research etc – then I would hope to consign any thoughts of subscriptions to the bin. But, time will tell. 

So far it would appear you are all an honest, engaged and generous bunch! 🙂 Those of you who are new to these pages obviously will want to take longer to come to a judgement – fair enough. 

How can you donate? 

Well, on each daily post there are some donation links that you can use on an ad hoc basis, when you please. This may be after you have backed a winner or made some money. Or come the end of the month when you look back and tot up how much you have made. (there will be months when we all lose mind!) Or you may start using a particular piece of research or think I am mad for giving away a particular report for free – and think that is is worth £7 or something for example. 

The choice is yours. The power is in your hands. And that is very exciting. It means that no on is excluded from the blog and that you are all free to engage with it in a way that suits you and at a time and date that suits you. 

Monthly Donations….

NEW… A handful of you have requested some monthly donations options. You are happy to make a more long term commitment and most of you have said that it will save you having to remember to donate every month! That sounded like a good idea to me and as such you can find these donation links below. 

*** Anyone who signs up to one of the links below will receive my Cheltenham Stats Guide for free. (worth £17+ VAT  -out Thursday hopefully) You will also be added into an email list that I will use to send you other exclusive reports from time to time, that I would normally charge for etc. That is just a thank you for anyone who makes that donations commitment. I know most of you will probably prefer to chip in on an an hoc basis, and that is brilliant, but the options are there if you wish.*** 

MONTHLY/WEEKLY DONATIONS OPTIONS…

£3 per WEEK: DONATE HERE>>

£12 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

£17 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

I would expect moving forward there will be a wide mix of types of donations, from those on an ad hoc basis to the monthly options above. 

All donations are greatly appreciated and I will never be able to thank you enough. 

This donations approach is on trial, until the end of June. Hopefully it will just continue beyond that and there will never need to be a reason to consider other options! And of course, I need to maintain the quality and the profitability of the blog! 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. Josh,, just been looking at the vincent obrien hcap hurdle for last 6 runnings 2010-2015….
    Willie mullins has had 3 winners at 25/1 20/1 and 10/1 with 2 seconds 2 fourths and a fifth from only 16 runners ,
    Alan king clearly targets the race he had had four runners in last 6yrs,, the four runners being entered in 4 separate yrs,,, from the 4 runners he has had 2 thirds at 25/1 20/1 and a fourth at 20/1 anything he enters has to be backed whatever the price.

    Paul nicholls has had only 8 runners in 6 yrs but a winner at 11/1 and a second at 25/1. Just thought the readers may be interested in this…

    Whilst Hobbs hasn’t had a winner in this period he has had a third and 4th at 66/1 and 33/1 , not sure if it was cheltanian,, who will have too much weight to win this if it runs but the horse is an admirable honest performer who is entered this year again…

    Despite the size of the field it really is worth focussing on just mullins, nicholls and king in this race

  2. Josh – Many thanks for mentioning my blogsite above. Great stuff. Glad you enjoyed the posts and a big hello to those who’ve followed the link. Really great to welcome new readers. Keep up the good work Josh. This is a top site. Look out for a piece in Mug Punting soon. Cheers, Dave

    1. Morning Charles. Many thanks,that’s good to hear! 3 1/2 hours left on this train,a long old crawl from Suffolk! There looks to be plenty of choice in the City Centre, it shouldn’t take long,with any luck.

    1. Good question. Haven’t fully decided in truth! Will be all 10 handicaps with full works as usual. The general ‘negatives’ for handicap chases and handicap hurdles, then some.micro angles and ‘trainer’ profiles for handicap chases and Hurdles. I may then throw in the NHF race, The RSA,The Albert Bartlet and the Gold Cup as a bonus. Each race takes about an hour/hour and half to go through, suspect I may include them,and push launch back to Sunday. Send out free report on Thursday.

      Oh, and hello also!

  3. Good luck flat hunting Josh!

    Just sent you a donation – that’s a 2 pointer’s worth by my levels, which demonstrates my confidence in you!

    1. Cheers Ali, much appreciated in context of your staking etc, and another fine example of why this approach looks like it is the best way forward! You send me that every now and then and all will be fine. And I am not going anywhere for a long long time. Plenty of time to build the bank steadily, and grow the staking in time, all with bookies money!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.