1.30 Muss – Proud Gamble – 1 point win – 9/1 (BetF/BV/PP/SJ/WH) 2nd
A very poor race indeed and not the kind to get involved with too often but I just cant resist a nibble on this horse at this price. Indeed he drifted like a barge last time so may be a horse that needs to live up to his name. We shall see if the money comes.
In a race full of inconsistent animals, those that don’t win very often and that are out of form, I have gone with a very unexposed chaser here who has caught my eye a couple of times. Well, the first time he raced over fences I had a look at that race and noted him – just because he was in the ‘could be anything’ bracket of chasers, having never raced in one before. He was keen that day after a break and fell early. He raced prominently that day. The last race I also kept an eye on him. I dont think I tipped him as such,(cant remember) but was very interested. He drifted a lot that day and the writing was on the wall before the tapes went up. He was held up out the back and never given a hard time. No issues with that at all. Being a young horse they have every right, after a fall, to teach him to race/jump properly and do it in their own time. The alternative? Well they push him too hard, gun him at his fences, he falls, he dies. That is the worst case. I don’t think it quite qualified as a ‘public schooling’ session, but to my eye he generally traveled well and came home in his own time. Now, he may simply not be very good.
But, all of his form before his last two chases should just be ignored. And, given how early he fell first time up, the last run could be seen as his first of the season. All the fizz should be gone now, and he should be spot on fitness wise – if they indeed left anything to work on first time up. His trainer is 2/13, 5 places with handicap chasers here in the last two years. He has also been dropped 8lbs from that run and only has 10-4 on his back. At some point, at some level, he is going to make his handicap mark look silly I suspect. Today could well be that day, if he jumps etc. There are no natural front runners in here and I hope they may revert to more prominent tactics, which is the place to be at this track.
I won’t spend much time discussing the rest, there isnt too much point. They all have bits and pieces of form, although for some you have to cast your eye back a long way. They can all run a good race, they can all run shockers. ‘profiles’ of C5 chasers are never too trust worthy. AS I write Solway Bay is now a non runner, and he was the only really in form horse in the race. It says something that More Madness is 3/1 fav, a horse that is 0/18, 7 places in handicap chases, who finished 15l behind his nearest rival LTO, when that could have been 30L if the winner was not heavily eased in the final furlong. Vision De La Vie is unexposed and would have a chance, taking a drop in class. WON But, happy to leave him on price alone given his at times iffy profile also.
So, I dont go into this one overly confident, but I think we could have some fun at that price. And, if he goes in, he will likely pay for the rest of the week! 🙂
That is all betting wise today.
2.30 Muss – Mumgos Debut (any) 2nd 7/2
3.30 Muss – Jonny Delta (14/<) 2nd 8/1>9/2/ Rioja Day (14/<) UP 12/1
3.50 Fakenham – On The Case (12/1<1) UP 10/3> 11/4
2.50 Fakenham – Celtic Intrigue (14/1<) UP 9/2
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