Big Race Preview
Ziga Boy – 1.5 points win – 8/1 (general) WON + 12 points
Coologue – 1.5 points win – 10/1 (general) 2nd -1.5 points
Gullinbursti – 1 point win – 14/1 (general) UP -1 point
After I posted the price drifted to 9-11/1 and was there for some time. Hopefully some of you got a bigger price but I got 8s and that is what it will go down as. +9.5 points to add to the pot. +8.5 points on TIPS this week, I think that takes them to +88.5 points for the month but need to check! Super race.
It is unusual for me to go for three in one race but I couldn’t decide which one to leave out and given the month we have had on the blog I thought why not back all of them!
The ‘obvious’ trends don’t really help too much in this race but a few of them point to this race going to the unexposed types. Those with 20 or more chase runs have a poor record, as do those with 9 or more places in chase races. All winners of this race had 0-4 chase wins to their name.
Using those three as a ‘winning profile’ would leave: Buywise / Le Mecurey / Coologue / Gullinbursti / Ziga Boy / Distime
Ziga Boy – won impressively LTO returning to what looks to be his favoured better ground and we backed in him that day. Visually that win looked too good to be true and he has gone up 15lbs from that, and is also racing from 1lb out the handicap. But, he is lightly raced and hasn’t had many tried on a sound surface. He could be improving rapidly and if that is the case the 15lb rise doesn’t bother me. He will race prominently and he jumped so well the last day that I would be disappointed if he wasnt in the mix turning for home.
Coologue – is unexposed and ran well enough last time where the ground may not have suited. I suspect he has been saved for the better ground and this looks like it may have been the target. There is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and, depending on what Aachen does, could try and lead these all the way. On the face of it the trainer’s record at the track is poor, but with handicap chasers in the last 730 days he is 1/10, 4 places.
Gullinbursti – runs for a trainer who is very hard to catch right but who does have an excellent record here. There are plenty of questions to answer but given his ‘trends profile’ I had to have a nibble at 14/1. It is that Kelso run which catches my eye and a repeat of that may see him thereabouts. He has a lot less weight on his back here and has come down the handicap. The jockey also knows him. Despite his age he is still unexposed and if he retains any ability should give us a run for our money.
Of the rest – well Distime is interesting at a monster price and while I dont think he has the class to win this, I would not be shocked if he ran on into 4th say. That may be worth a closer look on the betfair place market for fun. Le Mercurey has a favourites chance but does have stamina to prove and on paper he is not the most stoutly bred. That is a big question for me as well as the fact that the yard is still hot and cold. I don’t think I would want to be lumping on – happy for him to prove me wrong. Buywise is Buywise. He will win one of these races one day, and his followers will no doubt get some of their losses back! If he jumps well he would have a chance. He does have stamina to prove also but could run a big race. The rest have a few questions to answer for me but you could make some sort of case for most in here, in what feels an open race.
Hopefully our three are in there pitching turning for home.
12.30 Donc – City Supreme (12/1<) 4th 12/1 / Tekthelot (12/1<) UP
1.30 Donc – Sir Valentino (12/1< – guide,as with all prices,14/1 winner earlier in week) UP
2.25 Chelt – Champagne West (11/1<) PU
4.10 Chelt – Prairie Town (14/1<)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.25 Chelt – Tenor Nivernais– 2nd was an ‘eye catcher’ on his last couple of starts running really well at the track behind the progressive Village Vic. His form ties in with Champagne West and I am not sure he should be over twice the price. There is also a lack of front runners in here and it would not surprise me if Aidan Coleman tried to dictate from the front. As always with these angles I haven’t looked in depth at the other runners!
I should add that Double Ross was an eye-catcher from previous weeks from his run at Ascot. He goes in the main race above. He doesn’t have the ‘winning profile’ of previous winners and I still cant work out if he actually stays 3m or not. He isnt carrying any of my money today.
That is all for today. Good Luck with your wagers.