Members Report: 28/01/16 (COMPLETE)

Another day off.

No potential micro system qualifiers and no other bets for the day. There are a couple of 3m+ chases but I don’t have the time/energy to do them justice so will just leave them. 


Over And Above was Pulled Up and I have yet to watch the race but suspect he may have found that ground too soft, I’m not sure. He has never really handled heavy on the evidence to date but had won a few in soft. That’s how it goes sometimes. The winner was well found in the market and in hindsight I can see why some will have backed him at 25s > 10s. That was only his 11th chase and he had won one over 19f. He had won a few point to points over 24f in heavy so had maybe been crying out for a 3m slog in the mud. That price would have allowed backers to overlook the trainer’s lamentable recent track record. A biggie that got away maybe. Next time! 

Dellbuoy – his jockey is either not very good, corrupt, or felt something wrong with the horse that I couldn’t pick up. I managed to watch it and he had not moved a muscle as they were turning in. Holding a good position entering the final 4f he didnt do anything and was shuffled back to last and he continued to sit still as they turned for home. No idea what he was doing. I am still scratching my head. Maybe today wasn’t the day! He is one/two runs away from being added into my collection of ‘cliff horses’! Race reading is an area that can always be improved and I would be interested to read what some of you made of that ride! 


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18 Responses

  1. Dellbuoy not his time yet maybe with better jockey,he has not enough speed

    Over And Above betting on races above 4 like 5 class 6 class is a little like gambling
    Take your ski time You will be tired next 3days
    there is diffrence between Alps and England

    1. yep agree about the lower classes, and will rarely dive into C5 chases, but he was a good bet on paper and the winner wasnt a ‘ how on earth did he win’ horse. That’s racing. onwards. The alps dont have hurt the legs, esp for an amateur like me, now with 10 days skiing under my belt, ever.

  2. The jockey gave Dellbouy a very quiet ride,looks like they are plotting something with him,i will watch him very closely.he stays 2ml alright.BoB

  3. Ben Pauling 3-5 with nhf horses runs treaty girl in the 3.30 warwick weather permitting,has form on yielding,that translates to heavy in Ireland,great value at 10/1 with Ladbrokes,alan king has fav but 1-15 oliver Sherwood 0-5 venetia Williams 0-4 in that grade

  4. hi josh the winner was tipped up by gary priestley dont know if you know him he would cause a market move [good]

    1. Hi Paddy, yep I follow Gary on twitter and have done for some time and did see that he tipped him. He does like finding monsters every now and then,we’ll quite regularly sometimes!

  5. Dellbuoys jockey is only a 7 pound claimer, so I think you’re been a bit harsh. We all have to start somewhere and he probably just did what he was told. He lacks experience but that doesn’t mean he’s not very good, personally I don’t back 7 pound claimers but once they’ve proved themselves capable and are claiming 5 pounds well that’s a different story.

    1. Maybe, but he went on to win a race later at Kempton I believe. He knows how to ride, and for me no excuse for his total lack of movement before entering the home straight. I echo your comments entirely and rarely moan at all about rides,esp those of 7lb claimers. He will still be learning. If the plan was never to get involved he clearly needs to learn to make it less obvious! Maybe it was just a mis judgement and that is that.

  6. 4.00 Warwick, Hunter’s Chase

    A bit of a punt here at 25/1: Barrel of Laughs – trainer has got them fit after long breaks for the Hunter’s Chase season in the past, achieving many wins and places

    I’ve got a bit on e/w

  7. I’m taking a punt on Bapak Bangsawan 2:10 southwell. I got 25/1 with betvictor so worth a chance, not been running so well the last couple of runs but 5f R43 W5 P20.
    OR 61-71 R28 W4 P13 looks worth a chance plus miss Stokell has done alright at southwell so far this year

  8. hi. josh the bha do a report every day its called why they ran badly horses p/u etc easy to find main site B.H.A.

  9. Small punt on Oh What A Species in the Southwell 1.35. Captain Rio progeny are 10 winners from last 50 runners at Southwell with 50% placed. @ 12/1 it is worth a small each way.

  10. Hi guys,had a look at the replay on the atr site and to my eyes,don’t think there’s much in it.He was held up as per normal,had plenty of gaps and paddy Bradley gave him 4 smacks of the whip and he just didn’t respond,(after watching the head on),just didn’t happen on the day.Had a quick look at Paddy Bradleys stats over the last 12 months and they’re quite good,he’s showing 9 wins from 39 rides on the a/w,(plus 19 points P/L),all codes comes in at 73 rides/14 wins (plus 18.18 points).Also has a 25% strike rate with the trainer 7 wins from 28 rides (+12 points),not too shabby really.Worth keeping a eye on Dellbuoy,if and when he does win,will most likely be at a decent price(long distance with a strong pace might suit maybe)

    Anyways gone for a wee punt on Wychwood Warrior in the 6.30 meydan,his trainer is following the same sort of pattern as last year and think there’s every chance he’ll improve from his last run,he’s four years old now,lightly raced and up to a mile which i think will help,pat smullens booking suggests that this could well be his target race.Don’t know much about the opposition and it is a ” punt”,but worth a 1/2 point e/w of my hard earned at the odds of 12/1 with laddies.

  11. My thoughts on Dellbuoy – I understand the frustration when watching this and easy to blame jockeys in these situations. When turning for home he did look like his exaggerated waiting tactics were about to be put into action – was difficult to see from side on tv angle as he was so far out the back that was not in the picture- but on the head on view you can see that he was using his whip (allbeit late on) and didnt appear to make up much ground to my eye. I am abit loathed to fill up my tracker with horses that run on past beaten horses late on, especially from All weather. Move on and stick to those 3mile chasers! A bit surprised you were not mentioning Willoughby Hedge in 2.20 Warwick as lto was looking the winner before falling, maybe too short now but 7/2 last night.

    1. James/Robbie,,,my only gripe was the complete lack of movement by the jockey (he had same posture from start of race until he turned in) until very late, losing a position of 5th or so and ending up stone cold last within about 1f or so. It didnt look right, but that is racing, I don’t really get hung up on these things. I have backed a few winners where other punters would bemoan a ride in behind on their horse etc etc. That is the game we are in. And James yes I take your point about tracking that type of horse etc. There is a reason why my tips are mainly 3m chases at this time of year (that was not a tip mind). I am away for the week on ‘holiday’ hence why blog a bit light on analysis, pointers etc. I spent 30 seconds looking at that Warwick race before deciding I dodnt wish to spend 1h+ analysing it.

      1. If Dellbuoy was untried at the distance and there was no money for it we can assume Paddy Bradley was told to hold him up to see out the trip but not to be too hard on him if there was no response, punters are always keen to blame jockeys and see corruption in every poor run – which begs the question of why anybody bets at all if we are all so paranoid.

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