BIG RACE PREVIEWS (‘tips’)
3.15 Haydock
Cloudy Too – 2 points win – 7/1 (BV/PP/WH/Coral)
Katenko – 1 point win – Non Runner – No Replacement
*prices as of 14.30, 22/01/16
The trends are not really that useful here with small sample numbers in places and in truth the 8 that were left on the ‘shortlist’ I didn’t much fancy. So, to an extent, I have ignored them.
Cloudy Too is slowly becoming a cliff horse of mine and this could be the final time I ever back him, who knows. A slightly smaller field would be ideal but he has track form, stays, and should relish the conditions. Having stared at him for a time I have concluded that this has been the season’s target! He has come down quite a way in the weights and in the context of this race, his last race here is interesting. If this is the target you wouldn’t want to ruin his mark and the main jockey returns. He also carried 11-5 that day, in the mud also. Today he has 10-4 on his back, 15lb less. In this swamp, that will surely help. The trainer is in decent enough nick and all things considered, if this is to be my final bet on him, I wanted to go out in a blaze of glory.
Katenko is more risky but they keep persevering with him. He was running well last time at a big price (still a long way from home) before he made a really bad blunder, and was soon pulled up. But, he has ran well in this race before and he does like the mud. With a clear round, were he to return to any of his best form, he would be right in the mix. This is a risky one but 12s, in the context of the race, was worth a dart for me.
The opposition…
Well I would like to think Virak and Third Intention have too much weight here. This will be a really tough test, with ground similar, if not worse, than the Welsh National. The latter also has big stamina questions to answer also. Seventh Sky has been running ok but also has stamina to prove and I wonder if there are a few classier ones than him in here. Fingal Bay just can’t seem to win and he has had a few chances. He clearly has the ability but is another whose stamina in this ground would have to be taken on trust – he is short enough in that context, albeit the National Hunt fan in me would like to see him win a race like this. Algernon Pazham still can’t jump and at the moment I can’t be touching him. He now has plenty to prove, and this race has so far gone to horses aged 8 or older. Splash of Ginge also has plenty to prove now. The rest (bar one, I will get to him!) have plenty to prove for me in race conditions and surely to high heavens won’t be good enough to take this. Famous last words!
So, that leaves one. The ‘if I can repeat my best hurdles form over fences you won’t see the back of me horse’ – Reve De Sivola – who apparently has been schooling very well at home. Well, this isn’t home, it is big boys school. Look, if he jumps well then he may take all the beating. But, this isn’t a hurdle and you don’t want any chinks here. In this ground he can’t afford to make errors. If they let James dictate from the front and allow him to get into a rhythm then my bets may be down the drain. We shall see. I wouldn’t want to be lumping on at 4s I don’t think, but that price isn’t necessarily short enough for me to put you off, if you like him! He is 11 and there is a reason he is rated 139 over fences. Happy to let him prove me wrong and if mine are out of contention I will happily cheer him home.
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3.35 Ascot
Tara Road – 1 point win – 20/1 (Bfsports) 16/1 (PP) 14/1 (general)
Benardelli – 1 point win – 12/1 (general)
Write up will be sent out by Daily Punt Blog
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MICRO SYSTEMS
Jan Trainers
1.15 Asc – Mountain King (11/1<)
3.15 Hay – Fingal Bay (11/1<)
3.35 Asct – Royal Regatta (11/1<)
Other
K Lee…
4.30 Taunt – Jayo Time (12/1<)
NR
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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(this is a test section and these are NOT tips. So far, the test is not going to well!)
1.00 Haydock – Horizontal Speed goes here and he was an eye-catcher LTO. He traveled well into the race before fading/being outstayed up the hill. This race is actually one furlong shorter and of course there is no Cheltenham hill. So, he is interesting as he may well stay this far in these conditions. A question, as with most horses at Haydock tomorrow, is how he handles this type of heavy ground. If he gets through it, based on that last run, he should go well.
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That will be all for Saturday.
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TO NOTE: A note about next week…I am off to France for a spot of Skiing on Sunday, and will return the following Sunday. I will have my trusty lap-top with me and still plan to post daily. Posts will include any potential micro system qualifiers as a minimum. Time allowing I will continue to look out for the 3m+ chases and I plan to look at a big race or two a week tomorrow (Skybet Chase I think). There won’t be a Weekly Diary post and there won’t be much else going on in terms of content. Following my return my eyes will slowly start to turn towards Cheltenham. By the 7th Feb my trends/stats guide should be complete for those of you who like that kind of thing. I think it will be £17+vat, and I won’t be posting any of the stats/trends found in the guide on the blog. Anyway, that is for another day.
47 Responses
Cheers Josh. Will wait to see if Tara Road’s price rebounds…on the rest.
Paul
Thanks Josh enjoy your skiing.BoB
Have a good break josh,try and clear your head too,although the way your form is that’s hardly needed.Personally I find that a day a week usually sunday is good to just clear the mind and start with a clean slate for the glorious Monday meetings
Yes good to see Hereford return – and yes agree about clearing the head. I try and avoid studying any racing on a Sunday if I can! I will be switched off enough next week!
Great to see that Hereford will be back jumping in the autumn.No doubt Venetia will be back farming the the track
The 14/1 on Shotofvodka in the 1pm at haydock is very tempting,no problem with the going,just trainer isn’t really firing but that’s built into the price,might have a nibble e/w
Tom Symonds is 3/4 with chasers at taunton,eaton rock might be value at 8/1 in the 2.45
Katenko NR
430T Jayo Time NR
hi Josh
Have a good un
20-1 long gone on Tara Road only got 12’s – should have checked sooner!! Seems word of your prowess is getting round. I’m at Donny next Saturday so look forward to the info for the Skybet Chase. Have a great holiday
Cheers Michael, yes not sure if tipped elsewhere, I don’t think it is me haha. (Yet!) Will check in morning but will likely record it at 12s when he romps home…14-20s wasn’t around for long after I posted,under an hour I think,and 20s was with betfair sports. I would be lucky to get £5 on with them at that price.
All the best Josh enjoy the snow.
Kerry Lee has a novice chaser in the 1.30 Haydock Kylemore Lough.Beat a good yardstick in Dunraven Storm comfortably last time out,improving rapidly and could put it up to Ortago Trail 6/1 to find out?
HarryWhitington/Gavin Sheehan 205 haydock bigmartre,all in favour of horse if good enough
In favour of any horse if good enough lol
Have a great time in France Josh
Enjoy the break Josh. Thanks for all your hard work.
Hope you have time todo some 1 mile hcps class 4 or above in your flat portfolio.
Hi Josh,
RE: Reve De Sivola.
I can’t believe that connections have not thought it through.He has completed in all of his 39 races.The last time he raced over fences was in 2011 at Ascot 24Sft running off 139, where he was unlucky not to finish 2nd to The Minack. He’s a 6 time Grade 1 hurdle winner carrying 10-04 in a Grade 2 chase, worth a saver in my book.
Great post Josh, keep the faith.
Cheers Richard, yep at 4s I couldn’t really put anyone off…just whether he jumps,under pressure,in that ground for duration. If he does the clearly has form/ability to run a big race. He has been over hurdles for so long that is the only concern. If he does go well opens up so!e more options for him for one more season, veterans chases as well etc GL
I think 4/1 about Reve De Sivola is a shocking price and makes the market for us. As Richard says his last chase was at Ascot where he was btn 6 1/2 lengths by The Minack receiving 11lbs from him. Not sure i would be rushing to back The Minack off 11st 7lb in this race. Reve had 10 efforts over fences and won one novice chase. .This was a top novice hurdler who won a Challow and a grade 1 at punchestown.. He clearly failed as a chaser or didnt reach the heights expected(only rated 139). Thats surely why they reverted back to hurdles
They now revert to chases at the grand old age of eleven. Of course he looks well handicapped on his hurdles form but this is a chase and i will applaud them if they pull it off but at only 4/1 i couldnt go anywhere near him.
Oh I do applaud a forthright, getting right off the fence,opinion. Super. Yep would tend to be more in your camp than other way. He can win but all things considered maybe 4s is a mad price. I haven’t backed him at all and like you will applaud if they pull it off.
Enjoy the skiing Josh .then focus for Cheltenham.looking forward to the guide.
Hi Josh
Tara Road tipped up by Paul Kealy in Racing Post Weekender. He makes a good case for it. I like Salubrious myself, expect you can put me off it though lol.
Have a good holiday.
Greg
Currently on a train and the signal is surprisingly good!… I never like putting people of a horse per se,and no worse a feeling than liking something and being put off by someone else!! With Salubrious, my eyes always start of with bigger priced horses first,and I found two I could make a case for…Salubrious was short enough for me when i looked in context of the weight he has,trainer form, he still in and out.and from trends I did use,albeit tentative,he had some questions to answer. There are a few in here where I would be surprised if they won,he isn’t one of them!
Not quite Thomas,favourite 0/2 on going,he migh be able to handle heavy going but wasn’t good enough on both occasions he tried.Bimartre is the only one you could say is definitely suited by going distance and course
Josh,
Thanks for that, think i might just watch the race now, blame you afterwards lol.
Happy skiling.
Greg
Need I say ….. BOOOOOOMMMM top tipping
Wonderful Josh. That should pay for a few beers next week!
Thank you again
great shout Josh , top class
Yet again,very well played josh
Head in the Clouds!
PS Don’t be a Gas Line Boy.
Superb job josh,there used to be a guy on here questioning your selections,wheres he now??,you can go away on a high,well deserved break
Well done Joss, great tipping again. Hope you are on the piste tonight.
Boom Cloudy Too – won Boom Pressurize won i had that bet at 30/1 and ew 5/1
Nice day more to come
Thanks again Josh. I knew you were serious with 2 points so adjusted my stake accordingly. Enjoy the slopes.
well done josh, another 3m+ chase winner!
would be grateful if can say what the level profit is on 3m+ chases recently. thinking of really upping my bets on them ?
thanks
Well the profit on all tips/BRP is +80 points this month. +4 or +6 (can’t remember if counted today when just went through) were not 3m+ chases.
Thanks Josh
I backed Cloudy Too at 7/1, so even with the saver on Reve thats a 6 point profit, your certainly hitting the boards running at the moment. Can’t wait for next Saturday Sky Bet Chase at Donny.
Thanks Josh another good winner.BoB
Fantastic again Josh. Many thanks,
Paul
Excellent result with Cloudy Too Josh – thank you
Great to read the detailed write ups. Very pleased to have found your site. All best on slopes, you’ll have plenty of extra Euros for the apres ski too.
Well done Josh. I had a good bet on Cloudy Too @ 7/1. Have the men in white coats been round to see you yet Richard. Seriously though a saver on a fancy is never a bad thing. Whatever you do Josh dont go banging your head on the piste and forgetting how you are picking these winners.Have a great holiday.Wel deserved
Reve didn’t win but in truth he didn’t run a bad race 5/12 and was eased when his chance had gone. It will be interesting to see where he go’s next as imo I still think he has some mileage chasing.
Well done Josh, great tipping again.
Have a great time skiing
Thanks
Pete
top man josh i know this is selfish but come back safe we need you here lol
Reve didnt run a bad race !! He was sent off 3/1 fav and was beaten 43 lengths. Now i do not back many favourites at all but if i did i would want to finish a bit nearer than 43 lengths behind the winner.
Where does he go next? Hes an 11 year old who has won the Long Walk in 2012,13 and 2014. He also won the Cleeve in 2013. That should have been his next run, the 2015 Cleeve but as it comes a bit quick after yesterday i cannot see that happening. I think his chance has gone for this season. He will be twelve for next years Long Walk but i believe thats his best chance of getting another victory. In handicap chases he would have to find the softest race imaginable and with up and coming young and genuine chasers around i just think they would be foolish to ask the old lad to go chasing again. Its all about opinions and i might be wrong.