Big Race Trends: Doncaster- SkyBet Chase

Just getting this out the way now so I can enjoy more red wine next week! 🙂 … I suspect this will be the only ‘big race’ covered a week Saturday. 

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Doncaster: Sky Bet Chase

15 renewals since 1997

219 runners, 49 placed horses

1 winner (1/13) down as having NO previous run. Likely those with form abroad. Not accounted for in HRB.

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TRENDS

Previous Place

  • Nothing much of note
    • PU: 0/16, 1 place
    • 8th or worse, but completed: 0/16, 3 places

Horse Age

  • Nothing too much of note, given number of runners etc
  • 12/15 Aged 6-9
    • 10+ : 3/80, 16 places…20% winners…37% runners…33% places

Days Since Run

  • 14/15 ran 16-90 days ago
    • 1-15 days: 0/20, 1 place
    • ‘First Run’: 1/13, 3 places
    • 121->365: 0/8, 1 place

Horse Weight

  • 12/15 Carried 11-2 or less
    • 11-3 + : 3/77, 19 places…20% winners…35% runners…38% places
    • 11-12+ : 0/8, 8 places – excluding claims… 0/11, 1 place

Horse Official Rating

  • 14/15 OR 142 or below
    • 143+ : 1/30, 7 places…7% winners…14% runners…14% places

Position In Market

  • 9/15 Top 3 in market

Odds

  • 14/15 priced 20/1 or under
    • 22/1 + : 1/61, 9 places

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 5/60, 18 places
  • IRE: 9/121, 25 places
  • FR: 1/31, 6 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Clear second to fourth in weights (inc joint weights): 0/47, 8 places

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 12/15 had 0-10 handicap runs
    • 12/135, 33 places…80% winners…62% runners…67% places

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 20+ chase runs: 0/28, 2 places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 13+ : 1/41, 7 places

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 13/14 had placed on at least one of previous 3 runs
    • 1/45, 8 places had not (winner with ‘no previous form’)
      • Those with form in HRB: 0/33, 5 places did not

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win Career)

  • 14/15… 0-4 career wins
    • 1/118, 21 places had 5+

H-Win (NH Race Type)

  • 15/15 had 0-4 chase wins
    • 0/46, 5 places had 5+
    • 5/22, 8 places had 0 chase wins to name (will include 1 with ‘no run’ from abroad)
      • No such runners since 2009, suggesting criteria in that sense may have changed.

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 6+ : 0/19, 3 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 5+ ; 0/17, 2 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Highest Class Run

  • Yet to run above class 3: 0/10, 0 places

 

Highest Class Win

  • A win at listed or higher level: 1/51, 11 places (winner was a G1 winner)

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 9+ places in Chases: 0/38, 6 places

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

Track LTO (of interest)

  • Cheltenham: 4/33, 10 places
  • Wetherby: 3/22, 7 places
  • Chep: 2/14, 4 places
  • 1 win each: Catterick/Donc/Kempt/Newb/Hayd
  • Ascot: 0/8, 1 place
  • Sand: 0/16, 2 places

Trainers (of interest)

  • P Nicholls: 2/11, 5 places
  • 1 win each – Hobbs/NTD/A C Whillans/M Hammond/D Pipe/K Bailey
  • G Moore: 0/5, 2 places
  • Jonjo O’Neill: 0/3, 0 places
  • K Reveley: 0/5, 3 places
  • N Henderson: 0/9, 3 places
  • M V Williams: 0/10, 2 places
  • A King: 0/4, 0 places
  • Mrs S J Smith: 0/12, 1 place
About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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