Below you can find a summary of results for the past week, followed by a couple of micro angles of interest. I have looked at both of these trainers previously (some time ago) and have revisited them.
The ‘portfolio’ made +2.3 points on the week if you backed everything at widely available prices with a BOG bookie – solid, if unspectacular. From the highs of the previous week on the ‘tipping’ front I had a bit of a shocker…
0/4, -4 points
Big Race Previews
0/4, -4 points
1/5, +0.5 points
5/16, +10.8 points
Total: 6/29, +2.3 points
Micro Systems (since start of August): +94.8 points
Tips/Shortlist/BRP (start of October): +30 points
Total: +124.8 points
My target in my own mind is for the blog/portfolio to make +200 points (+100 from systems/ +100 from my tips). After 18 weeks we are on +124.8 points which is ok, and gives us plenty to play with moving forwards.
‘NEW’ MICRO SYSTEMS…
One of the first free systems I pulled together in September 2014 was a simplistic one based around Sue Gardner’s handicappers. The rules…
- Sue Gardner
- National Hunt Handicaps
- 1-120 days rest
- 14/1 or under
It is fair to say that until recently her yard was a no go zone. In fact from the 8th of May 2014 up until early last month she had 60 qualifiers, and only 3 winners. She has a small enough string and as such caution should always be advised, but the results really were dire, with not many finishing of their races. I can only think there was a virus or something affecting the string. But, it is another reminder,as we have seen with the Micro Systems on this blog, that current trainer form is important.
It now looks like she is turning the corner…her last 7 qualifiers…7 bets / 4 wins / 5 places / +9.5 points…she looks like she is a stable worth following again, no doubt with some well handicapped horses on her hands. All bar one of her winners this year have come in the last few weeks…
Results now look like this…
Given the poor recent form of the string it isn’t wise to go back into this system and look at some new rules because the results look to be down to an unwell stable, rather than focussing on the wrong approach of the trainer.
Having said that I have had a quick look and it is interesting that her horses in decent recent form tend to hold it for a time. If you add the following rule…
- Horse Runs Since Last Placed: 1 or 2 (so placed on last start, start before that or both- ‘placed’ includes a win)
That reduces the number of bets but maintains similar profit levels. I think it may be a case that her string are in good form and I would use the first rules as a starting point and the second as a guide. Sue Gardner’s handicappers should continue to pay over time and it will be interesting how they get on in the next few months.
Graeme P McPherson
Anyone who follows trainer form closely will be aware that his string is in fine form at the moment, with a glut of winners in recent days.
Some time ago, I forget when, I devised a micro angle for him that looked at…
- Class 2,3,4
- Running in same class or up 1 or up 2 (effectively poor record with class droppers)
- 0 to 1 run in 90 days
- Any Odds
It is ok, but could be better. I generally don’t like an angle with a win strike rate of less than 20% – but, from its last 4 qualifiers it has had 3 winners at 12/1, 15/2 and 5/2 – clearly the stats for 2015 before those winners were not looking too healthy!
Since then I have improved how I research, build, and re-build these micro angles, and the way I dig into the data. Always near the top of my list now is how trainers do with horses having their first, or second start in a handicap. On paper these usually have little form as they have been campaigned to get a mark and can be a decent price before any money may arrive.
So, I have had another look at the above angle to improve the strike rate and try and find what could be a deliberate training strategy…
- National Hunt Handicaps
- Horse Runs 90 Days: 0 or 1
- Horse Run in Handicap (National Hunt Race Type): 0 or 1
- Any odds (lands the odd monster)
His stats in C4 handicaps with such runners are: 30 bets / 10 wins / 13 places / +148 SP
With all those priced 16/1 or under: 53 bets / 12 wins / 17 places / +71.5 SP .
In truth at times it is best not to second guess him and I suspect over the coming months a big one may well go in. Here’s hoping. 2012 was just a bad year for the yard all round, whichever way you look at it. Ignoring that year makes this angle have a decent enough 25% SR which is much more comfortable for me as a starting point for looking at any horse in more depth, if you chose to do so.
In truth the first approach is not a bad starting point but I think I have improved it. And this angle also highlights those that have the best chance when they run in C5, and or they are dropping in class. Certainly when he runs one above in C4 they should be taken very seriously.
That is all for this weekly post.