Below you can find a summary of results for the past week, followed by a couple of micro angles of interest. I have looked at both of these trainers previously (some time ago) and have revisited them.
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RESULTS
The ‘portfolio’ made +2.3 points on the week if you backed everything at widely available prices with a BOG bookie – solid, if unspectacular. From the highs of the previous week on the ‘tipping’ front I had a bit of a shocker…
Tips
0/4, -4 points
Big Race Previews
0/4, -4 points
The Shortlist
1/5, +0.5 points
Micro Systems
5/16, +10.8 points
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Total: 6/29, +2.3 points
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RUNNING TOTAL
Micro Systems (since start of August): +94.8 points
Tips/Shortlist/BRP (start of October): +30 points
Total: +124.8 points
My target in my own mind is for the blog/portfolio to make +200 points (+100 from systems/ +100 from my tips). After 18 weeks we are on +124.8 points which is ok, and gives us plenty to play with moving forwards.
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‘NEW’ MICRO SYSTEMS…
SUE GARDNER
One of the first free systems I pulled together in September 2014 was a simplistic one based around Sue Gardner’s handicappers. The rules…
- Sue Gardner
- National Hunt Handicaps
- 1-120 days rest
- 14/1 or under
It is fair to say that until recently her yard was a no go zone. In fact from the 8th of May 2014 up until early last month she had 60 qualifiers, and only 3 winners. She has a small enough string and as such caution should always be advised, but the results really were dire, with not many finishing of their races. I can only think there was a virus or something affecting the string. But, it is another reminder,as we have seen with the Micro Systems on this blog, that current trainer form is important.
It now looks like she is turning the corner…her last 7 qualifiers…7 bets / 4 wins / 5 places / +9.5 points…she looks like she is a stable worth following again, no doubt with some well handicapped horses on her hands. All bar one of her winners this year have come in the last few weeks…
Results now look like this…
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | ||
| ALL | 235 | 53 | 22.55 | 99.03 | 110 | 46.81 | 42.14 | 145.41 | 61.88 | 50.25 | 1.39 | |
| 2015 | 47 | 5 | 10.64 | -26.5 | 18 | 38.3 | -56.38 | -25.83 | -54.96 | -2.94 | 0.61 | |
| 2014 | 38 | 9 | 23.68 | 21.33 | 14 | 36.84 | 56.13 | 29.43 | 77.46 | 0.38 | 1.65 | |
| 2013 | 51 | 9 | 17.65 | 18.75 | 25 | 49.02 | 36.76 | 30.35 | 59.51 | 17 | 1.18 | |
| 2012 | 57 | 17 | 29.82 | 34.2 | 32 | 56.14 | 60 | 45.31 | 79.49 | 18.35 | 1.66 | |
| 2011 | 26 | 10 | 38.46 | 47.25 | 16 | 61.54 | 181.73 | 60.4 | 232.3 | 21.57 | 2.43 | |
| 2010 | 16 | 3 | 18.75 | 4 | 5 | 31.25 | 25 | 5.74 | 35.9 | -4.11 | 1.28 |
Given the poor recent form of the string it isn’t wise to go back into this system and look at some new rules because the results look to be down to an unwell stable, rather than focussing on the wrong approach of the trainer.
Having said that I have had a quick look and it is interesting that her horses in decent recent form tend to hold it for a time. If you add the following rule…
- Horse Runs Since Last Placed: 1 or 2 (so placed on last start, start before that or both- ‘placed’ includes a win)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) |
P/L(Plc) |
A/E | ||
| ALL | 131 | 39 | 29.77 | 99.33 | 68 | 51.91 | 75.82 | 130.97 | 99.98 | 34.62 | 1.62 | |
| 2015 | 22 | 4 | 18.18 | -7 | 11 | 50 | -31.82 | -6.58 | -29.91 | 2.88 | 0.79 | |
| 2014 | 20 | 9 | 45 | 39.33 | 10 | 50 | 196.65 | 47.43 | 237.17 | 7.06 | 3.28 | |
| 2013 | 31 | 5 | 16.13 | 3.25 | 14 | 45.16 | 10.48 | 9.36 | 30.19 | 4.38 | 0.97 | |
| 2012 | 35 | 12 | 34.29 | 25 | 20 | 57.14 | 71.43 | 32.51 | 92.88 | 9.19 | 1.73 | |
| 2011 | 16 | 6 | 37.5 | 25.75 | 9 | 56.25 | 160.94 | 33.51 | 209.44 | 9.49 | 2.09 | |
| 2010 | 7 | 3 | 42.86 | 13 | 4 | 57.14 | 185.71 | 14.74 | 210.62 | 1.61 | 2.36 |
That reduces the number of bets but maintains similar profit levels. I think it may be a case that her string are in good form and I would use the first rules as a starting point and the second as a guide. Sue Gardner’s handicappers should continue to pay over time and it will be interesting how they get on in the next few months.
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Graeme P McPherson
Anyone who follows trainer form closely will be aware that his string is in fine form at the moment, with a glut of winners in recent days.
Some time ago, I forget when, I devised a micro angle for him that looked at…
- Handicaps
- Class 2,3,4
- Running in same class or up 1 or up 2 (effectively poor record with class droppers)
- 0 to 1 run in 90 days
- Any Odds
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | ||
| ALL | 135 | 22 | 16.3 | 202 | 43 | 31.85 | 149.63 | 261.98 | 194.06 | 59.8 | 1.66 | |
| 2015 | 29 | 4 | 13.79 | 1 | 8 | 27.59 | 3.45 | 7.23 | 24.94 | 0.3 | 1.29 | |
| 2014 | 30 | 6 | 20 | 56.5 | 9 | 30 | 188.33 | 71.87 | 239.58 | 4.02 | 2.05 | |
| 2013 | 20 | 5 | 25 | 73 | 8 | 40 | 365 | 101.17 | 505.83 | 25.79 | 3.14 | |
| 2012 | 18 | 0 | 0 | -18 | 2 | 11.11 | -100 | -18 | -100 | -1.01 | 0 | |
| 2011 | 23 | 4 | 17.39 | 42.5 | 11 | 47.83 | 184.78 | 46.43 | 201.85 | 19.15 | 1.4 | |
| 2010 | 15 | 3 | 20 | 47 | 5 | 33.33 | 313.33 | 53.28 | 355.23 | 11.55 | 2.36 |
It is ok, but could be better. I generally don’t like an angle with a win strike rate of less than 20% – but, from its last 4 qualifiers it has had 3 winners at 12/1, 15/2 and 5/2 – clearly the stats for 2015 before those winners were not looking too healthy!
Since then I have improved how I research, build, and re-build these micro angles, and the way I dig into the data. Always near the top of my list now is how trainers do with horses having their first, or second start in a handicap. On paper these usually have little form as they have been campaigned to get a mark and can be a decent price before any money may arrive.
So, I have had another look at the above angle to improve the strike rate and try and find what could be a deliberate training strategy…
- National Hunt Handicaps
- Horse Runs 90 Days: 0 or 1
- Horse Run in Handicap (National Hunt Race Type): 0 or 1
- Any odds (lands the odd monster)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | ||
| ALL | 68 | 15 | 22.06 | 167.5 | 21 | 30.88 | 246.32 | 213.43 | 313.86 | 28.02 | 2.27 | |
| 2015 | 14 | 2 | 14.29 | -2 | 4 | 28.57 | -14.29 | -1.53 | -10.94 | 0.66 | 1.44 | |
| 2014 | 20 | 5 | 25 | 58.5 | 5 | 25 | 292.5 | 74.22 | 371.12 | 4.9 | 2.51 | |
| 2013 | 9 | 2 | 22.22 | 23 | 3 | 33.33 | 255.56 | 35.75 | 397.22 | 4.17 | 2.38 | |
| 2012 | 8 | 0 | 0 | -8 | 0 | 0 | -100 | -8 | -100 | -8 | 0 | |
| 2011 | 6 | 2 | 33.33 | 29 | 4 | 66.67 | 483.33 | 36.78 | 613.06 | 9.04 | 3.45 | |
| 2010 | 11 | 4 | 36.36 | 67 | 5 | 45.45 | 609.09 | 76.2 | 692.74 | 17.25 | 3.36 |
His stats in C4 handicaps with such runners are: 30 bets / 10 wins / 13 places / +148 SP
With all those priced 16/1 or under: 53 bets / 12 wins / 17 places / +71.5 SP .
In truth at times it is best not to second guess him and I suspect over the coming months a big one may well go in. Here’s hoping. 2012 was just a bad year for the yard all round, whichever way you look at it. Ignoring that year makes this angle have a decent enough 25% SR which is much more comfortable for me as a starting point for looking at any horse in more depth, if you chose to do so.
In truth the first approach is not a bad starting point but I think I have improved it. And this angle also highlights those that have the best chance when they run in C5, and or they are dropping in class. Certainly when he runs one above in C4 they should be taken very seriously.
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That is all for this weekly post.
Josh
4 Responses
Hi Josh
I am guessing you use HorseRaceBase to dig out your micro systems? The problem I find with trainer stats is that they are volatile – we are always told that ‘trainers are creatures of habit’ so if you find an angle that they have won with in the past it is supposed to be profitable in future. Problem is that without being privy to their current circumstances it may be that their operating methods will change (losing horses from certain owners) or they may just have bought a bunch of mediocre yearlings that will affect their stats negatively for years to come. Having said that (and I apologise that this is now irrelevant for 2015) one cast iron angle that has made 20-30 points profit for at least the last 7 years is to bet all of Venetia Williams runners in Handicap Chases in November that have been off the track for 100+ days..this year the first one went in on October 31st because it was a Saturday but just look her up if you haven’t already done so..its a little goldmine!
Hi Steve,
Thanks for your comment…firstly I assume you may be new to this blog, since November?..one of the micro angles I researched was the Venetia Williams one and with a bit of tweaking followers brought in about +45 points from her alone – it is a gold mine indeed, and keeps paying year in year out – touch wood for the same next year! That is an example of a clear trainer strategy, no fluke or luck about those results.
Yes I am a horse race base disciple! (along with Geegeez Gold)
All your points are valid and is why any such angle in the first instance is a ‘way in’ and you have to keep on top of all those factors – especially size of string, stable form (whether a virus), owners moving out all their good horses, or just a change of approach. I do like the ‘micro angles’ – rather than a system with 50-60+ qualifiers every year say, because they do take some of the risk away if things have changed – as hopefully you do not back many losers before spotting any change.
But, a lot of them are creatures of habit and there are some gems to be found.
Hi Josh
Yes, just discovered your blog today!
Digging around in HRB is a fascinating exercise as long as you don’t go mad backfitting everything to make a stonking profit….on paper
Your approach is almost the same as mine and what I find is that with the odds limited angles a winning qualifier pops up AFTER the race has been run because the SP is returned at a slighty lower price than just before the off, which is frustrating to say the least.
Will be following your blog with interest – incidentally what are these ‘guides’ that I keep reading about in the comments?
cheers
Steve
Hi Steve,
Well, thanks for reading, I think you will enjoy the ride! Yes backfitting is always a concern and you have to be conscious of what you are doing. My number one rule is that any rule has to be logical – ie, only back in class 1,3 and 5 – no logical reason not to back in C4 given backing class either side. That is a crude example but every rule needs some logic behind it. And I always research/build any angle starting with all the different rules first – to ensure they stand up to scrutiny as a stand alone rule.
Odds – it is just a fact that some trainers rarely have winners with ones priced above x – the ‘boundary’ is always a concern and if in doubt, back them – these things even themselves out over time.
Ah the Guides, my finest creations to date…
If you head to the below link and join my list I will send you three reports, two of which are examples of main guides. Tomorrow you will be emailed about how to get hold of the main ones, but those links are below also. They have found their users plenty of value bets already, and some nice winners along the way. (i dont pay them for their kind words, honest!)
join list here… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/happychristmas
can check out sales pages here..
1. Jumps Stats Pack…http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/trainertrackprofilessales
2. All-Weather stats pack… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/awtrackprofiles
cheers
Josh
ps. can always email me on info@racingtoprofit.co.uk and I will send you some more info/answer any questions etc