There are no system selections again tomorrow…
IMPORTANT:…I am debating how best to make these daily posts more informative, getting the balance right between ‘tipping’ and providing stats based horses which you can use as a ‘way in’ to help with your own thinking. I think the ‘Shortlist’ could be better so here is what I am going to propose moving forwards, for the time being…
A tip will be a tip (Tips/Big Race Previews), that is straightforward enough. I am going to ‘abolish’ The Shortlist and replace it with a ‘Today’s Stats’ section…this will be 1-3 horses of interest derived from various stats. I will endeavour to post these the evening before so that it gives you time (those of you who want it) to use that information as you please. While I will look at the horse in question I will not be looking at other horses in the race etc – the aim is to try and provide some objective information to help you. Now, I may end up ‘tipping’ a horse from this list, which as always will indicate I have looked through the race in more depth and have a certain level of confidence. Naturally I will track the results of these ‘Today’s Stats’ horses so that over-time we can get a feel for how they do – and it may be that it gets to the point where backing them blind is desirable. I know there are some of you who just want to back my ‘tips’, there are some that want information to help with their own selections and there are plenty of you in-between.
Now, if I don’t ‘tip’ a ‘Today’s Stats’ horse that doesn’t mean I dont think it has a chance. It means it may be in a race type I would not normally play in and a such may struggle for ‘tipping confidence’ or usually this will mean I have not/will not have the time to go through a race in depth required for me to be happy to ‘tip’ something. Sometimes you can over-think this game and if I am happy that there are some solid stats, and that the horse looks interesting, I will put them up. From there it is over to you!
Please do let me know what you think about this slightly different approach and/or what you may do to improve these posts further.
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So, with that said…
TODAY’S STATS
12.30 South – Only Ten Percent – (7/1 general) – Jenkins is 12/64, 30 places with his handicappers in 3yo+ handicaps here. Trainer 3/14 last 14 days. Horse is 4/10, 6 places in C6 AW Handicaps, 3/9, 4 places over Course and Distance and has won from higher marks. 0/14, 2 places when priced over 8/1 SP in AW handicaps to date.
2.30 South – Oscars Journey – (12/1 general) same stats as above, and in addition in all 5&6f handicaps here in the winter months Jenkins is 17/89, 36 places.
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That is all for tomorrow.
9 Responses
Stats are OK now and then but form is King both horse and stable
Yep take your point Joseph, and we all value different things. As always the stats are a ‘way in’ for you to then use as you please – including ignoring/thinking they are strong enough to back as a micro angle blind/combination with your own approach – for you a stress on horse form and trainer form.
When you say ‘horse form’, what does that mean to you? Their suitability to race conditions or the horses they have beat etc, or both…interested to know if you dont mind sharing…
(I would add that a well researched micro angle can be a gold mine, as the micro systems have shown to date, and touch wood continue moving forwards! there is plenty of power/profit in a stats based approach)
There is good and bad on both sides but stats are something that has happened in The past and down to luck but form is what is happening now when horses and stables are running well you can’t beat it but you have to factor in going class and distant. But the most important thing is you have to learn to read a race until you learn too do all this you will lose a lot of money but in life you have to pay to learn hope this helps you joe
Hi Josh,
Had the two Evan Williams winners from th NH guide yesterday. I am lucky have time to go through the stats, we can all help by contributing, it ie easy to miss stuff. Saturday had 19 selections but 6 winners and good day Friday too. I have also decided mainly to back win only. Thanks and best regards.
Pattaya Wolf.
Josh,
I think the new format is a good idea, if it helps your thinking to find better value plays do it!
Personally I love the big race previews and stats as well as the festival and trainer angles.
Love the blog – keep up the good work.
Joe H
Thanks Joe, glad you like the blog.
Yes it is part psychological I think and knowing that they are not ‘tips’ will make me more likely to highlight value plays – such as the Cumani 25/1 winner other day – it was a 2yo nursery, no time to look at the race and not the type I would ever touch from a standing start – so I left it – and he won. Stats were strong, odds were decent, and in future that kind of horse will be put up. But, because I viewed it as a ‘tip’ (in a race where I lacked confidence to attack it)- and not information for you to use – I bottled it.
thanks for reading/commenting
Josh
The new approach looks fine to me Josh.
Stats ok now and then Joseph is a bit harsh i think.In my opinion they are a good starting point for assessing the race Getting an angle on how trainers target races is very important.Add to this other factors like form and trainer form,going,distance etc etc, and you have a better chance than the average punter.
Looking at what Roy said helps to make the above point. Yesterday E.Williams had only a 10% strike rate at Ffos Las but when he teams up with Adam wedge the strike rate is 15% and a 19.25 gain to 1pt stakes.That for me said take a second look at his runners with Wedge up. Also at Ffos Las yesterday Miss R.Curtis had a 38% strike rate with her handicap chasers. She had a runner in Bob Ford, but after i looked at the recent stable form i passed it. I missed an 8/1 winner but it was the stats that alerted me to it and the stable form that gave it the elbow. Thats punting. I now believe the Curtis stable is about to hit a purple patch after weeks in the doldrums.. At the price the stats guides are an unbelievable buy and will help to beat the enemy.
Hi Josh,
I am with you 12.30 Only Ten Per Cent and 14.30 Oscars Journey @ 8.1 or less. 14.00 South. Champagne Duchess. 15.30 Saved My Bacon 6.1 available, Keep my eye on Whaleweigh Station same race if earler 12.30 and 14,30 get beat. Good luck everyone.
Hi Roy,
Whaleweigh Station has been backed from 12/1 last night to 11/2 this morning. Not sure Jenkins is now the backing stable it once was but of the three he is the mover. I have done all three and also backed Saved My Bacon at 13/2.