TRENDS… I suspect I will look at the Caspian Gold Cup for my Daily Punt Blog and as such that will be emailed out by them on Friday (stats/trends/shortlist) and then Sat morning with any firm ‘tips’.
On the Saturday there are no big 3m+ chases for me to get stuck into, trends wise at least. But, there are a couple of 3m+ chases from Doncaster and Lingfield that I may get stuck into, and yet to see if any pointers for those.
On Friday there is a 3m+ handicap chase from Chelenham and I think there are some trends for that. I will add these to this post this afternoon/tomorrow and at this stage will plan to ‘preview’ that race.
So, firstly those Trends for that race, followed by some generic meeting stats…
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Cheltenham: Friday 1.45. 3m2f Handicap Chase
18 previous renewals (as a C2 handicap,C1 Listed and recently G3)
193 horses, 52 placed horses
Trends
13/18 Top 6 LTO
- 13/120, 41 places…72% winners, 62% runners, 79% places
- 5/72, 11 places 7th or worse…28% winners, 37% runners. 21% places
15/18 priced 8/1 or shorter
- 15/78, 34 places…83% winners, 40% runners, 65% places
- 3/115, 18 places 9/1 +…17% winners, 60% runners, 35% places
14/18 Top 3 in market
- 14/57, 29 places…77% winners, 30% runners, 56% places
14/18 Ran 1-30 days ago
- 14/129, 37 places…77% winners, 67% runners, 71% places
- 1/30, 8 places ran 31-90 days ago.
14/18 Aged 5-8
- 14/113, 39 places…77% winners, 59% runners, 75% places
- 1/16, 5 places been this age range last 3 renewals (winner in 2013)..could be getting more of a test as become a G3, and having an older horse is no bad thing. We shall see.
Other Stats
18/18 had PLACED on at least one of previous 4 starts
- 0/22, 3 places had not
- 14/18 had placed on at least one of last two starts.
- 14/112 runners, 35 places…77% winners, 58% runners, 67% places
1/32, 6 places were moving up in trip by 2f or more.
TRACK LTO (of interest)
- Cheltenham: 6/57, 14 places
- Haydock: 3/15, 8 places
- Newbury: 2/25, 6 places
- Ascot: 1/15, 4 places
- Aintree: 0/15, 0 places
- Sandown: 0/7, 0 places
TRAINERS (of interest)
- D Pipe: 3/9, 3 places (Martin Pipe: 3/10, 4 places)
- Miss Venetia Williams: 2/9, 4 places
- N Henderson: 2/10, 2 places
- P Nicholls: 1/20, 7 places
- 1 win each: Scudamore; Gifford; Alner; Mulholland; King; Daly; Keighley
- NTD: 0/17, 1 place
- Jonjo: 0/4, 0 places
- Hobbs: 0/10, 2 places
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Cheltenham: December Meeting Pointers (2010-)
General Stats (all races)
ODDS
OVER 16/1 SP : 190 bets / 1 win / 16 places / 0.53% SR / -156 SP / AE 0.19
16/1 or shorter: 451 bets / 69 wins / 166 places / 15.3% SR / -74.05 SP / AE 0.92
12/1 – 16/1: 106 bets / 5 wins / 25 places / 4.72% SR / -27 SP / AE 0.7
8/1-12/1: 107 bets / 7 wins / 29 places / 6.54% SR / -38.5 SP / AE 0.66
15/2 or shorter: 238 bets / 57 wins / 112 places / 23.95% SR / -8.55 SP / AE 1.00
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From now on I will just focus all stats on those priced 16/1 or shorter SP.
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TRAINERS (most wins first)
All Trainers with 2 or more winnners…
NON-Handicaps
- N J Henderson: 24 bets / 9 wins / 16 places / 37.5% SR / -3.16 SP / AE 1.08
- P Nicholls: 29 bets / 7 wins / 15 places / 24.14% SR / -11.35 SP / AE 0.78
- NTD: 11 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 27.27% SR / -4.78 SP / AE 1.19
- P J Hobbs: 10 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / 20% SR / -5.85 SP / AE 0.73
- D Pipe: 6 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 33.33% SR / -2.09 SP / AE 0.93
Handicaps
- P Nicholls: 26 bets / 7 wins / 10 places / 26.92% SR / +23.42 SP / AE 1.46
- NTD: 20 bets / 3 wins / 10 places / 15% SR / +0.75 SP / AE 1.3
- N J Henderson: 27 bets / 3 wins / 8 places / 11.11% SR / -5.5 SP / AE 0.93
- P J Hobbs: 23 bets / 2 wins / 8 places / 8.7% SR / -10.5 SP / AE 0.62
- Miss Venetia Williams: 13 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 15.38% SR / +17 SP / AE 1.42
- Jonjo O’Neill: 9 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 22.22% SR / +8 SP / AE 64
- M Keighley: 6 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 33.33% SR / +20 SP / AE 2.82
Others of Note
- Pipe/Handicaps: 1/19, 4 places, -7 SP
- Mullins/Handicap: 0,6, 1 place
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Trainer Micro-Angles/Stats
PAUL NICHOLLS
- Handicap Chase: 20 bets / 5 wins / 7 places / 25% SR / +22.25 SP / AE 1.55
- Non Handicap Chase: 8 bets / 3 wins / 4 places / 37.5% SR / +1.66 / AE 1.31
- Handicap Hurdle: 6 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 33.33% SR / +1.17 SP / AE 1.28
- Non Handicap Hurdle: 21 bets / 4 wins / 11 places / 19.05% SR / -13.01 / AE 0.6 (over-bet, hard to obtain value)
Handicaps
AGE
- Horses Aged 4-6: 13 bets / 1 win / 3 places / 7.69% SR / -4.5 SP / AE 0.39
(winner was aged 4, 1/3, 2 places +5.5 SP – so 0/10, 1 place aged 5 or 6)
- Horse Aged 7+: 13 bets / 6 wins / 7 places / 46.15% SR / +27.92 SP / AE 2.7
(5/6, 6 places those with 7/1< SP) (1 X 16/1 winner) (winners aged 7/8, 0/2, 0 places with 9yo)
DAYS since Run:
- Last Ran 21-30 days ago: 14 bets / 7 wins / 7 places / 50% SR / +35.42 SP / AE 2.42
Ignoring his 5/6 year olds, those stats improve to: 8 bets / 7 wins / 7 places / 87.5% SR / +41.42 SP /AE 4.27 (no runners last year with those ‘rules’)
Track LTO: (handicaps, 16/1<, 21-30 days ago)
- Cheltenham: 10 bets / 6 wins / 6 places / 60% SR / +34.42 SP /AE 2.54
- Ascot: 2 bets / 1 win / 1 place / 50% SR / +3 SP / AE 3.57
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In short, all of his Handicappers are worth serious consideration. Those that ran 21-30 days ago (and at Cheltenham’s previous meeting) look to be worth backing blind, as do those aged 7+. So far his 5/6 yo’s have struggled but, as with all angles like this, they are small numbers and are worth monitoring.
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NICKY HENDERSON
- Non Hncp Hurdle: 17 bets / 7 wins / 12 places / 41.18% SR / +0.04 SP / AE 1.2
- Non Hncp Chase: 7 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 28.57% SR / -3.2 SP / AE 0.8
- Handicap Chase: 18 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 11.11% SR / -5.5 SP / AE 0.96
- Handicap Hurdle: 11 bets / 1 win / 4 places / 9.09% SR / -2 SP / AE 0.81
Non Handicaps
3/1 or shorter SP: 16 bets / 9 wins / 13 places / 56.25% SR / +4.84 / AE 1.27
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NIGEL T-D
8/1 or shorter: 19 bets / 6 wins / 10 places / 31.58% SR / +7.97 SP / AE 1.52…
- Non-Hncp Hurdle: 6 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 50% SR / +0.22 SP / AE 1.48 (2x The New One)
- Handicap Chase: 8 bets / 2 wins / 6 places / 25% SR / +3.75 SP / AE 1.59
- Handicap Hurdle: 3 bets / 1 win / 1 place / 33.33% SR / +6 SP / AE 2.78
- Non-Hncp Chase: 2 bets / 0 wins / 0 places /
(9/1 or bigger: 31 bets / 0 wins / 3 places / )
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GENERAL STATS/ANGLES
HANDICAPS (16/1<)
- 0 runs in previous 90 days: 31 bets / 1 win / 6 places / 3.23% SR / -25.5 SP / AE 0.29
- Horses that DID NOT PLACE on at least 1 of last 2 starts: 70 bets / 5 wins / 23 places / 7.14% SR / -27.5 SP / AE 0.7
- TRACK LTO (of interest)
- Cheltenham: 92 bets / 18 wins / 32 places / 19.57% SR / +33.42 SP / AE 1.39
- Ascot: 26 bets / 5 wins / 11 places / 19.23% SR / +18.5 SP / AE 1.98
- Haydock: 20 bets / 1 win / 7 places / 5% SR / -8 SP / AE 0.38
- Newbury: 30 bets / 1 win / 11 places / 3.33% SR / -26.25 SP / AE 0.25
- Sandown: 12 bets / 0 wins / 6 places /
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MICRO ANGLE
Horse Ran Ascot LTO, Finished Top 4: 20 bets / 5 wins / 10 places / 25% SR / +24.5 SP / AE 2.53
Horse Ran Chelt LTO, Finished Top 3: 44 bets / 11 wins / 17 places / 25% SR / +14.92 SP / AE 1.49
(although stats for those that were 4th or worse LTO at Chelt are not that bad and the no. of places similar, suggesting could just be luck. But, clearly a horse that ran at one of those two tracks LTO, and ran well, is worth serious consideration)
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