Cheltenham December Meeting: Stats/Trends (COMPLETE)

TRENDS… I suspect I will look at the Caspian Gold Cup for my Daily Punt Blog and as such that will be emailed out by them on Friday (stats/trends/shortlist) and then Sat morning with any firm ‘tips’. 

On the Saturday there are no big 3m+ chases for me to get stuck into, trends wise at least. But, there are a couple of 3m+ chases from Doncaster and Lingfield that I may get stuck into, and yet to see if any pointers for those. 

On Friday there is a 3m+ handicap chase from Chelenham and I think there are some trends for that. I will add these to this post this afternoon/tomorrow and at this stage will plan to ‘preview’ that race. 

So, firstly those Trends for that race, followed by some generic meeting stats…

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Cheltenham: Friday 1.45. 3m2f Handicap Chase

18 previous renewals (as a C2 handicap,C1 Listed and recently G3)

193 horses, 52 placed horses

 

Trends

13/18 Top 6 LTO

  • 13/120, 41 places…72% winners, 62% runners, 79% places
  • 5/72, 11 places 7th or worse…28% winners, 37% runners. 21% places

15/18 priced 8/1 or shorter

  • 15/78, 34 places…83% winners, 40% runners, 65% places
  • 3/115, 18 places 9/1 +…17% winners, 60% runners, 35% places

14/18 Top 3 in market

  • 14/57, 29 places…77% winners, 30% runners, 56% places

14/18 Ran 1-30 days ago

  • 14/129, 37 places…77% winners, 67% runners, 71% places
  • 1/30, 8 places ran 31-90 days ago.

14/18 Aged 5-8

  • 14/113, 39 places…77% winners, 59% runners, 75% places
    • 1/16, 5 places been this age range last 3 renewals (winner in 2013)..could be getting more of a test as become a G3, and having an older horse is no bad thing. We shall see.

Other Stats

18/18 had PLACED on at least one of previous 4 starts

  • 0/22, 3 places had not
  • 14/18 had placed on at least one of last two starts.
    • 14/112 runners, 35 places…77% winners, 58% runners, 67% places

1/32, 6 places were moving up in trip by 2f or more.

TRACK LTO (of interest)

  • Cheltenham: 6/57, 14 places
  • Haydock: 3/15, 8 places
  • Newbury: 2/25, 6 places
  • Ascot: 1/15, 4 places
  • Aintree: 0/15, 0 places
  • Sandown: 0/7, 0 places

TRAINERS (of interest)

  • D Pipe: 3/9, 3 places (Martin Pipe: 3/10, 4 places)
  • Miss Venetia Williams: 2/9, 4 places
  • N Henderson: 2/10, 2 places
  • P Nicholls: 1/20, 7 places
  • 1 win each: Scudamore; Gifford; Alner; Mulholland; King; Daly; Keighley
  • NTD: 0/17, 1 place
  • Jonjo: 0/4, 0 places
  • Hobbs: 0/10, 2 places

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Cheltenham: December Meeting Pointers (2010-)

General Stats (all races)

ODDS

OVER 16/1 SP : 190 bets / 1 win / 16 places / 0.53% SR / -156 SP / AE 0.19

16/1 or shorter: 451 bets / 69 wins / 166 places / 15.3% SR / -74.05 SP / AE 0.92

12/1 – 16/1: 106 bets / 5 wins / 25 places / 4.72% SR / -27 SP / AE 0.7

8/1-12/1: 107 bets / 7 wins / 29 places / 6.54% SR / -38.5 SP / AE 0.66

15/2 or shorter: 238 bets / 57 wins / 112 places / 23.95% SR / -8.55 SP / AE 1.00

 

***

From now on I will just focus all stats on those priced 16/1 or shorter SP.

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TRAINERS (most wins first)

All Trainers with 2 or more winnners…

NON-Handicaps

  • N J Henderson: 24 bets / 9 wins / 16 places / 37.5% SR / -3.16 SP / AE 1.08
  • P Nicholls: 29 bets / 7 wins / 15 places / 24.14% SR / -11.35 SP / AE 0.78
  • NTD: 11 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 27.27% SR / -4.78 SP / AE 1.19
  • P J Hobbs: 10 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / 20% SR / -5.85 SP / AE 0.73
  • D Pipe: 6 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 33.33% SR / -2.09 SP / AE 0.93

Handicaps

  • P Nicholls: 26 bets / 7 wins / 10 places / 26.92% SR / +23.42 SP / AE 1.46
  • NTD: 20 bets / 3 wins / 10 places / 15% SR / +0.75 SP / AE 1.3
  • N J Henderson: 27 bets / 3 wins / 8 places / 11.11% SR / -5.5 SP / AE 0.93
  • P J Hobbs: 23 bets / 2 wins / 8 places / 8.7% SR / -10.5 SP / AE 0.62
  • Miss Venetia Williams: 13 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 15.38% SR / +17 SP / AE 1.42
  • Jonjo O’Neill: 9 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 22.22% SR / +8 SP / AE 64
  • M Keighley: 6 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 33.33% SR / +20 SP / AE 2.82

Others of Note

  • Pipe/Handicaps: 1/19, 4 places, -7 SP
  • Mullins/Handicap: 0,6, 1 place

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Trainer Micro-Angles/Stats

PAUL NICHOLLS

  • Handicap Chase: 20 bets / 5 wins / 7 places / 25% SR / +22.25 SP / AE 1.55
  • Non Handicap Chase: 8 bets / 3 wins / 4 places / 37.5% SR / +1.66 / AE 1.31
  • Handicap Hurdle: 6 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 33.33% SR / +1.17 SP / AE 1.28
  • Non Handicap Hurdle: 21 bets / 4 wins / 11 places / 19.05% SR / -13.01 / AE 0.6 (over-bet, hard to obtain value)

Handicaps

AGE

  • Horses Aged 4-6: 13 bets / 1 win / 3 places / 7.69% SR / -4.5 SP / AE 0.39

                (winner was aged 4, 1/3, 2 places +5.5 SP – so 0/10, 1 place aged 5 or 6)

  • Horse Aged 7+: 13 bets / 6 wins / 7 places / 46.15% SR / +27.92 SP / AE 2.7

(5/6, 6 places those with 7/1< SP) (1 X 16/1 winner) (winners aged 7/8, 0/2, 0 places with 9yo)

DAYS since Run:

  • Last Ran 21-30 days ago: 14 bets / 7 wins / 7 places / 50% SR / +35.42 SP / AE 2.42

 

Ignoring his 5/6 year olds, those stats improve to: 8 bets / 7 wins / 7 places / 87.5% SR / +41.42 SP /AE 4.27 (no runners last year with those ‘rules’)

Track LTO: (handicaps, 16/1<, 21-30 days ago)

  • Cheltenham: 10 bets / 6 wins / 6 places / 60% SR / +34.42 SP /AE 2.54
  • Ascot: 2 bets / 1 win / 1 place / 50% SR / +3 SP / AE 3.57

 

***

In short, all of his Handicappers are worth serious consideration. Those that ran 21-30 days ago (and at Cheltenham’s previous meeting) look to be worth backing blind, as do those aged 7+. So far his 5/6 yo’s have struggled but, as with all angles like this, they are small numbers and are worth monitoring.

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NICKY HENDERSON

  • Non Hncp Hurdle: 17 bets / 7 wins / 12 places / 41.18% SR / +0.04 SP / AE 1.2
  • Non Hncp Chase: 7 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 28.57% SR / -3.2 SP / AE 0.8
  • Handicap Chase: 18 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 11.11% SR / -5.5 SP / AE 0.96
  • Handicap Hurdle: 11 bets / 1 win / 4 places / 9.09% SR / -2 SP / AE 0.81

 

Non Handicaps

3/1 or shorter SP: 16 bets / 9 wins / 13 places / 56.25% SR / +4.84 / AE 1.27

 

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NIGEL T-D

8/1 or shorter: 19 bets / 6 wins / 10 places / 31.58% SR / +7.97 SP / AE 1.52…

  • Non-Hncp Hurdle: 6 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 50% SR / +0.22 SP / AE 1.48 (2x The New One)
  • Handicap Chase: 8 bets / 2 wins / 6 places / 25% SR / +3.75 SP / AE 1.59
  • Handicap Hurdle: 3 bets / 1 win / 1 place / 33.33% SR / +6 SP / AE 2.78
  • Non-Hncp Chase: 2 bets / 0 wins / 0 places /

(9/1 or bigger: 31 bets / 0 wins / 3 places / )

 

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GENERAL STATS/ANGLES

HANDICAPS (16/1<)

  • 0 runs in previous 90 days: 31 bets / 1 win / 6 places / 3.23% SR / -25.5 SP / AE 0.29
  • Horses that DID NOT PLACE on at least 1 of last 2 starts: 70 bets / 5 wins / 23 places / 7.14% SR / -27.5 SP / AE 0.7
  • TRACK LTO (of interest)
    • Cheltenham: 92 bets / 18 wins / 32 places / 19.57% SR / +33.42 SP / AE 1.39
    • Ascot: 26 bets / 5 wins / 11 places / 19.23% SR / +18.5 SP / AE 1.98
    • Haydock: 20 bets / 1 win / 7 places / 5% SR / -8 SP / AE 0.38
    • Newbury: 30 bets / 1 win / 11 places / 3.33% SR / -26.25 SP / AE 0.25
    • Sandown: 12 bets / 0 wins / 6 places /

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MICRO ANGLE

Horse Ran Ascot LTO, Finished Top 4: 20 bets / 5 wins / 10 places / 25% SR / +24.5 SP / AE 2.53

Horse Ran Chelt LTO, Finished Top 3: 44 bets / 11 wins / 17 places / 25% SR / +14.92 SP / AE 1.49

(although stats for those that were 4th or worse LTO  at Chelt are not that bad and the no. of places similar, suggesting could just be luck. But, clearly a horse that ran at one of those two tracks LTO, and ran well, is worth serious consideration)

 

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