Having gone through last week’s posts – the portfolio pulled in +55.75 points if you backed EVERYTHING posted, to 1 point stakes (unless stated,ie 2 points on BRP). and got best prices at time of posting.
‘Tips’ (inc BRP) were 1/8, -4.5 (although I would have tipped Saroque 12/1 if we were not already backing him – in general my judgement has been ok, but could be better) Included a head second at 5/1.
Shortlist – 3/9, +30.75
Systems – 4/17 + 22.5 ……….. Jumps Handicappers 1/6, +7.
I don’t think we will be repeating that every week, (although we can but dream!) but plenty of points there to play with moving forward! I think that is the best punting week I have had for quite some time. The systems will naturally even themselves out over time as well and I dare say we can expect a few losers, that is the nature of that approach.
12.30 South – Mission Complete 7/2 (general) – Jonjo does ok with his handicap chasers here, 10/41, 18 places. This is a weak race and the most consistent and likely winner is probably Morlands George – he is sure to go well but is 9lb higher than for last win and while still progressive does have that to prove. Mission Complete is a character and may need some rousting, depending on his frame of mind. But, he has a lot in his favour. All race conditions are fine, he is very very well handicapped if putting it all together, even more so with the claim. Of most interest was the fact that in all handicaps he is 3/5, 4 places in C5, (3/5, 4 places when OR100<) This is the first time he has dropped into this class for some time, and if the break has done him good he should be thereabouts. The jockey has placed 4 times on him and in his short career to date is 0/8, 4 seconds in chases. Hopefully this is his first win. Given how poor a race this is 7/2 seemed fair enough to me.
3.45 South – Carlo Rocks (8/1 PP) 7/1 general – Caroline Bailey is (was at time I produced ‘Stats Guide’, otherwise known at Trainer Track Profiles) 6/17, 7 places here with her handicap hurdlers, for +42 SP, suggesting a few at nice odds. She is also 3/7, 4 places with her handicap debutants here (that stat taken from Geegeez Gold report), 2 of those in handicap hurdles. So, stats wise, plenty going for the horse. Given he has been running in novice races his form is irrelevant given the aim will have been to get him a handicap mark. These stats will be profitable to back over time, hopefully starting with this one.
That is all for today, quite a few system bets as well. Signing off 09.03, 09/11/15.
Williams (16/1 or under)
1.00 South – Rosa Fleet
Cox (14/1 or under)
3.00 Kempt – Fruity
5.10 Kempt – Tears of The Sun
5.40 Kempt – Perfect Bounty
All-Weather ‘Switchers’ (both Fanshawe,any odds)
3.35 Kempt – Knight Owl
5.10 Kempt – Landwade Lad
3.25 Carl – Resolute Reformer / Retrieve The Stick (both 12/1 or under)