18 runnings / 203 runners / assuming 54 places up for grabs
13/18 Top 4 LTO (13/110 runners), 34 places
4/18 fell/PU/DQ LT / 5th or worse LTO 1/53, 10 places
No real stand out stats for age. Winners at all ages from reasonable number of runners.
Carrying 11-8+ = 1/41, 6 places . 5.5% winners, from 20% of runners. Underperforming. 11-12 = 1/17, 1 place
14/18 Top 5 in the market (14/98 runner) – 4/105 were 6th or worse
8-30 days since run and seasonal reappearance (121-365 days) are positive, no real stand out between them.
2 runs this season: 4/21, 9 places – 19% , +9.5 SP
3/13, 5 places had won over max of 2m5.5f – so, not being proven at distance no biggy, and some clearly improve for it.
Other Stats of interest
0/16, 3 places ran in Grade 1 or 2 LTO
Track LTO (of interest, not an exclusive list)
Aintree – 0/20, 2 places
Chelt – 4/35, 12 places
Sand – 2/17, 6 places
Wincanton – 3/12, 7 places – 25%, +19.5 SP
Nicholls – 7/29,14 places (you reckon he targets this one as well??!)
Pipe – 3/13, 5 places (no runner)
Tom George: 0/10, 1 place
Tizzard – 0/5, 0 places
BIG RACE PREVIEW
Alfie Spinner 16/1 (WH) 14/1 (general) – 1 point EW (2 points total)
Yes, I can hear people in white coats gathering outside to take me away – have I lost the plot – possibly – but, having had a look through, bar the fav – at the odds I think we will get a run for our money here. He could well be the last ‘veteran’ I back given how poorly every other horse aged double figures has ran for me so far – but I will chance it.
So, what case can be made? Well, he doesnt win very often, but he usually runs his race and has placed in plenty of decent races – including when tipped EW in the Beecher last season, where he ran a gallant 4th a big odds. His recrod in this race in the last two seasons is 2nd and 2nd. (which was a 3rd but Young Master DQ) – The Ould Lad could well be this year’s The Young Master in this race, and we could be chasing his shadow – but out of them all Alfie Spinner could be leading the chasing pack. All race conditions are fine and if it eases then even better. He is carrying 10lb less on his back than in this race last year, and is 5lb lower. He should be up there, tracking the pace. He is a sound jumper, and will hopefully travel well into it. Younger legs may get the better of him over over the final couple of fences but I will chance that he can hang on for a place…this best is also inspired by a lack of confidence in most of the others…
Bar The Ould Lad who looks sure to go well…Carole’s Destrier has a big weight here and needs to step up again in reappearance. The trainer has gone a bit cold, 1/29 in last 14 days, and he needs to overcome a few of that stats above, albeit that is possible. Benvolio is weak in the market and this could be the prep for the Welsh National. He was some way behind Alfie Spinner in this last year and I see no obvious reason why that should be different this time if both running their races. He probably needs further although profile wise you could give him a squek. If he were stronger in market I would be more intrigued. Drop Out Joe and Fortgotten Gold have both gone up a lot- while weight rises are never the deciding factor for me, rises of 9/10lb require another almighty step forward. I think he races they won were quite weak on paper and they need to improve again. They could have got into this race on their old marks so it doesnt look ‘a plan’ a such. The former does just have his stamina to prove although should be ok, and the latter is now 0/9, 2 places in chases above C3 – he does look a different horse, but with trainers record in race he does have it to do – albeit I would like to see him go well as it looks like he has turned the corner. Theatrical Star has always found a couple too good above C3 – now 0/12, 3 places in chases. Bertie Boru and Wilton Milan both have stamina to prove – former now 0/7, 1 place beyond 2m6.5f, and he is a dodgy jumper. Not many improve horses from Nicholls and Skelton has a task on his hands with WM – a character. He has tried this kind of trip a couple of times without doing much, albeit yet to conclusively prove he doesnt stay. Still, some questions to answer. A Good Skin is open to improvement but does need to step up and the same can be said about Doing Fine and Royal P – his unexposed form looks below quite a few of these.
So, I could be going mad with Alfie Spinner – but I think he will run his race, and the way he has ran in last two versions of this suggests it is always an early season target. There are enough unexposed ones in here to suggest I may have lost my marbles – maybe they cant all run badly enough for old Alfie to be up there – but, at 16s I will take a chance. Some of these look like they are coming here as an afterthought, which I don’t like for big races. It should be a good race to watch in any case. Good Luck with your fancies.
No Shortlist today – I have ran out of time.
Another 10/1 winner yesterday added +8 more points to the pot. The two tips looked like they didnt run that well – yet to watch the races – the Hexham horse was a good bet – backing 6/4 shots at 9/2 consistently (i really do sound like a broke record) will pay – over time.
Again, good luck to any stats guide users – I think some of you who follow the stats blind may have had a couple of decent winners yesterday that I looked at and left – which was frustrating for me, but on paper I am happy with why I left them- albeit it would have been nice if I hadnt.
Easterby (12/1 or under)
1.50 Donc – Hoof It
2.50 Kelso – Classinaglass
5.40 Chelm – Hoofalong
Williams (16/1 or under)
12.55 Winc – King of Glory
2.05 Winc – Royal Palladium
3.05 Aint – Pepite Rose
3.40 Aint – Russborough
Fahey 2yo (16/1 or under)
1.15 Donc – In My Place
Lavelle (14/1 or under)
3.50 Winc – Chelsea Flyer
2.40 Winc – Lily Waugh (12/1 or under)