Members Report 26/10/15 (UPDATED)


1.50 Leicester – Educate 7/1 (PP/SJ/Coral/Betfair SB) 

Horses that have won big races always tend to stick in the mind and seeing Educate in this race at 7/1 grabbed my attention and was worthy of closer inspection.

He is a previous Doncaster Spring Mile winner and most notable two years ago won the Cambridgeshire off 104, 6lb above today’s mark. He is the best horse in this race on all known evidence and if could bounce back to anything like his best he would win this. This will be the easiest race he has competed in for a while. He maybe ran a bit below par in the Cambridgeshire LTO but before that hadn’t been running too badly. Already this season he has finished close to The Corsican in a listed race at Goodwood – he went on to win a G3. He has been weakening late on his his races recently so I like the drop in trip. His recent York run can be ignored as he went up the inside rail by himself which looked to be the worst of the ground. Doncaster he ran ok, prominent until a few furlongs out, but that was another good race. He kept on to the line.  Looking at his action it is a surprise he ever did perform on a firm surface, as he appears to hit the ground hard to my eye, with a rounded knee action. This return to soft is a positive as well for me. His record on soft/heavy in handicaps is 3/5, 3 places, Good to Soft or better 2/15, 6 places. As I said he has dropped in the weights and this will be the easiest opposition he has faced for quite some time. At 7/1 I was happy to take the chance. He has been travelling well enough in his races to suggest he retains ability and he should really be getting competitive here. 

A lack of quality in the opposition also influenced this decision. A lot of these to date have proven that they are not class 2 animals, yet. Robert the Painter is 0/11, 3 places in C2 and OMeara couldnt even get a win out of him at that level, although he did go close. Now, he is in form which could count for plenty but he is short enough here for me. Storm Rock is one of the few unexposed horses in here but he does need to step up into this company. It isnt the strongest of C2s but he does have to go and prove it. Jacks Revenge is 3/33 in handicaps and is hard to predict. The fact he is 3rd in the betting says it all about the depth of this race. He has ability if putting it all together but he has yet to win at C2 level, placing a few times. Spirit of the Law has the ability but looks out of sorts. Rail Dancer is in the could be anything category – but a bit too much guessing there, although is maybe a ‘guessing price’. Athletic seems best over 7f, is 0/9, 2 places in C2 and unproven on soft, 0/2, 0 places to date. The rest have a few too many questions to answer on recent showings. 

For me this is about whether Educate can show his class here. This is a weak C2 and a repeat of a few runs in recent times, including this season at Goodwood, would see him win this. The drop in trip should help and I think he will relish the ground. 7/1 was a decent price to find out for me. He should be able to sit and track the pace and there should be no excuses on that front. 


The Shortlist 

2.15 Ayr – Touch of Steel 5/1 (WH) 9/2 general.- Ewart/Irving are 3/8, 5 places in handicap hurdles here and our old friend is worthy of supporting one more time. He was mentioned on the blog when winning at 20/1 two starts back due to this TTJ combo at Kelso, taken from the stats guide. He has since gone in again at 2/1. This is a harder race but he looks to be improving. He could get an easy lead here, the further step up looks to suit as he keeps galloping. He also has a really willing attitude. The ground is a niggle but it didnt look GF lto and he has yet to prove he cant handle a bit of cut. There is a shorty in here also on a three timer. But, this will be his third run in 11 days, he has stamina to prove and he also won a weak race LTO. He may well go in again but he is short. All in all, at 5/1 I was happy to reinvest some of the profits he has made me. He should run his race. 

These two also team up with Herons Mill in the 2.45 – another handicap hurdle. Not a horse I will be backing as has had over 500 days off- guessing as to fitness and he is short enough – although that suggests he is ready to go. Still a maiden and maybe I have picked the wrong one but was happy to let him go. 



Jumps Handicappers 

3.55 Ayr – Retrieve The Stick (12/1 or under)



Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. Since the 29th of July …51 bets ..7 winners ..3 placed as in profits …think if hitting every top price and getting paid out on 5th the profit would be around 15 pounds for ten pound a point ….I missed a couple top prices and never placed my bet for 5th .learned that lesson have to say.. .down about 15 pounds …

  2. Sorry ..loss of 11 pounds or so….looked at your past results and it seems the jumps season is certainly more profitable ..hopefuly it will be the same again this season …

  3. was one stage it was 5 actual winners out of 41 ten pound per point minus 135 pounds ..could I ask what do you think went wrong in this period ..

  4. Harold, are you new to this game ? If you are not then you seem to be struggling to understand its a long game this and not a short term play
    If you find losing runs difficult to handle then people like Josh,Nicki Doyle and anybody who seeks value and doesn’t just go for short price favourites are not for you. Its about having faith in the method of selection.If you believe that the selections are well thought out then stick by them through thick and thin.
    Plucking a few weeks here and there and saying you lost x amount in this period is a waste of time.I will guarantee that every tipping service has a bad run.
    I can recommend Stat of the day from Geegeez and also Double Dutch from the same stable. Both these services have losing runs but the method of selection in my opinion will produce long term profits. I also believe Josh will also produce long term profits(its free as well),. Its a matter of whether you can ride through the losers which there will be more than winners. This is not an advertising campaign for Josh because i once subscribed to one of his services and asked for my money back.The reason ? I didn’t believe the method could make long term profits.I might not have put the case over well and i am sure Josh can do a better job but that is how i look at it.

  5. I made Educate a bet too as CD and soft are perfect; I don’t bet much in nurseries but Refulgence 1250L looks to have ideal conditions, raised to this trip, and is worth an EW at BF prices. In the last there Champagne Bob tempted me for similar reasons.
    The best value bet at Redcar was Sublimation 235, where Top Tug and Uncle Dermot seem favoured but are short.
    May the profit be with you!

  6. Of the 5 winners out of 41 run..average winning price was 7/2 hardly value ..and if it wasn’t for the 20/1 winner over these 3 months would be down a lot more ..yes racing is a long term game but its also about having some kind of confidence when placing bets ,,,Bet Alchemist gives out free bets these have been non profitable since the beginning of the year ..the payed for service hasn’t been profitable for over a year ,,, …whens does faith become blind Roddo …

  7. Statistics are always of interest to me and use the odd stat now and again on here…I use stats combined with other factors and have found the best way to use them is when they come from a large selection source and base them on a certain percentage of winners …limited stats can become very dangerous….best source is the Racing post wich is free also Peter May whos stats can be had for under a ten pounds …

  8. Could bet that if not backing Joshs bets at say under 5/1 and just betting on his higher priced bets and his bets of over 1 point the profits would be much better …this is one way of finding value in a tipsters bets in fact most tipsters never bother to analyse their bets this way … think its good to have a Devils advocate on sites that give you a say …have to admit never actually put money on all of Joshs tips since end of July ..though someone probally has…

    1. Harold your comments and views are always welcome here so do continue! they keep me on my toes and make me think. I back everything on here with my own money and yes I would like to be doing better but +50 odd points is ok for last 6 months on the advised ‘tips’. There have been ups and downs and the nature of my approach means that big priced winners will play a big part. So far since last November they have come along every now and then and the profits have climbed steadily. There will be long losing runs and day like today when the selections are poor. There have been a few too many shocking runs for my liking in recent weeks but I am always working hard to improve. And there is no one more critical of my performance than myself.

  9. I’ve been following the blog for about a year now, can’t say Josh wins as often as he or us would like but its not all about that. Personally i’ve learnt alot and altho i don’t back every tip i’ve still made a few £££!!! Of note are the systems that Josh keeps giving us for free and For those of us playing the long term game should be well in the money in tome 😉

  10. Point taken about Bet Alchemist and well made Harold. He has struggled this year of that there is no doubt.
    Nicki is a pure form student and his knowledge of the Irish scene has been very good. Its up to the individual how far you go with them. I have given him a break but keep an eye on him as i am sure he will bounce back. He loves the national hunt so expect an upturn soon.

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