Well we were due a poor day. Thanks to a 3/1 winner for Fanshawe late on at Kempton it wasn’t as bad as it could have been – ending up between -2 and -3 point loss I think.
Micro Angles – as I have said before it is up to you how you utilise them. I have been backing them all blind to date and they have been researched with that intention. With the ‘Jumps Handicappers’ they are more of a ‘way in’ I suppose although all of the trainer angles have a 25%+ SR, and they are expected to come out in front when backed systematically as well.
3.55 Carlisle – King Fontaine 8/1 – 1 point win
4.15 Ludlow – Victor Leudorum 10/1 (WH/PP) – 1 point win
3.55 – I could well be losing my marbles going for a 12yo here – and in general backing anything over 9 in Chases is fraught with danger – and you will always be open to more progressive rivals. However, I think the top 2 in the market are worth taking on. Orange N – well he is 0/7, 2 places OR121+, and 0/7, 2 places C3 – to date he has always found one too good or too progressive – he has been top weight a few times in C3 and failed. He does go well enough fresh so fitness will be fine. Coutown Oscar – well he is unexposed and if fit could well demolish this field – but, he steps up in class, has fitness to overcome and has to prove he likes a lively surface, having won on Heavy last time out. All those things could be fine but 7/4 is short enough. The rest have a few too many questions to answer for me.
King Fontaine – well he is in form and hasnt had many runs for this trainer. On old form he is still well handicapped. I think he will like this track a bit more than Exeter – which is stiff in parts but is also downhill in places and not the stiffest of finishes – not as stiff as here. He steps back up in trip and I think he will be thereabouts. I thought 8s was worth chancing given he still looks to be in form. Hopefully he is staying on up the hill when the others have had enough.
4.15 – Well another punt but at decent enough odds. This horse is only having his 8th chase start – and in 2013 he dotted up in a C3 novice chase at Ascot. He lost his way a bit since but having run off 128 on his last chase start now runs off 116 here. Fehily is back up and he gets cheekpieces for the first time. There is also a lack of pace on paper in here and I hope that he is sent to the front and tries to make all – as he usually races prominently. If he were to find any of his old ability – and he was racing in plenty of C3 chases having gone up to the 130s after that novice win – he would win this. Enough there to take a chance at 10/1.
Butlergrove King is another young and progressive chaser who could just blow these away. But, he steps up by 1/2 a mile here – it could suit – it could not – and as such isn’t totally bombproof. I wouldn’t want to take 2s on that basis, albeit he could make that look a decent price come 4.20. Jayandbee isnt without a chance but tends to need further and is a bit in and out. He could get outpaced here. The others have a few questions to answer as well, albeit BuckMulligan has the ability to win this – but is only 4/40 odd over fences- hard to predict.
So, a couple of lively ones hopefully, that should give us a run for our money at decent odds. They could both win – their profiles suggest they could also get behind and be well beaten – but at the odds I am happy to take a chance.
No shortlist today. The stats guide throws up a few horses of interest but I cannot make a strong enough case for the horses in the context of their races – my judgement could well be wrong (it has been a few times, so dont be put off if you have picked out a few) and if any of them win I will reflect on them tomorrow. There is nothing from my other stats sources which caught the eye – and in truth with those two races above I ran out of time to look at any more in the depth required.
The shortlist has to be profitable long term if backing them – and I will only put up horses I am confident/happy to have a bet on and that would go down in results.
2.00 South – Golan Dancer (14/1 or under)
South – Carlisle -Turtle Cask (12/1 or under)
5.15 Lud – Grimley Girl (12/1 or under)
NTD (16/1 or under)
2.10 Lud – Light Breaks