Results Update

Monthly Trainers 

August: 

Dore: 0/5, 1 place: -5 SP

Gosden: 1/8, 4 places: -5.25 SP 

Wall: 8/28, 13 places: +7.26 SP 

Makin: 0/10, 3 places: -10 SP

A couple of points to note. ‘We’ clocked onto Makin’s poor form and I hope the damage was not as severe as -10. Also if taking opening odds for Wall’s runners you would have won +20 more points. These would have been bigger I suspect at morning prices as well. It should also be noted Dore had a 16/1 shot win, which drifted late and technically did not qualify, however if you were placing bets earlier you may have been on, as I was. 

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September:

S C Williams: 3/31, 11 places: -0.5 SP 

B J L: 3/17, 10 places: -2 SP

Gordon: 1/18, 2 places: -3.5 SP (-2.5 SP taking opening odds)

J J Quinn: 0/9, 3 places: -9 SP 

Baker: 4/9, 7 places: +14.5 SP (+16.5 SP taking opening odds)

Ivory: 2/12, 6 places: 0 SP (+5 taking opening odds) 

Baker had a habit of having bigger priced runners go well and his stats for 9/1-20/1 shots were 2/13, +15 SP. I think I missed the first of these but was on the second such winner.

So, strictly if taking opening odds at first show 10 mins before race or so about +7 for August and +7.5 for September. If ignoring Makin from about half way through when clear form was poor (say only -5), backing the Dore winner and a Baker bigger priced horse you could have made anywhere between +14.5 and +47 or so. There are a lot of ‘ifs’ in that statement but experience to date shows how these angles should be used as a guide – albeit it is important for the blog that they are profitable to back systematically when taken collectively. But, current trainer form is clearly important and so if seeing how the bigger priced runners do – the price points are of course only a guide and every now and then a trainer will have a a few big priced ones, like Baker. It must be said there were a handful of close seconds amongst that lot as well which would have improved things further. But, still, some solid results there, I have said it before but it would be nice if the monthly angles could average 10 points per month or so over the course of a year. We shall see whether that is possible. Experience to date further highlights the need to take a price in the morning as many of the winners, esp for Wall, were well backed. 

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Other Results…

‘Big Race Preview’ results currrently stand at +76 points to advised stakes and odds since the Hennessy Gold Cup last November. 

The ‘Pace wins the Race’ trial proved challenging and in the end I ditched it, but that didnt lose anything in that period and wiped its face.

Tip of The Day is still going, albeit taking a hiatus at the moment, although not for long. When there is a ‘tip’ this will be included in the daily members report from now on. But, that running total is: 10/49, 19 places = +6 points. 

‘The Shortlist’ is +4 since the start of the month – I was not recording detailed results before then but the shortlist was about +35 or so up if you backed every horse to 1 point level stakes I think – but that was from a lot of bets and I am trying to make that more focussed. 

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So, for a free blog I wont complain with how it has gone since I upped the output last November. Albeit if you missed the odd big priced winner and/or started backing selections when I hit a poor run, you may well not recognise those results – but, it is a long term game and profits will return soon. Of course those figures do not include the many winners and losers mentioned in despatches – Grumeti being a case in point. But, none of those count in my ‘official’ results. I should really start tipping more of them eh!?

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That is all for now. I am keeping better records from now on etc so everything will be more transparent/accurate moving forwards. 

Josh 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Seems to be a lot of ifs and buts …Grumeti was a case in general if reading your write up ….there wasn’t a whole lot of confidence behind it as far as I could tell ..but kept mentioning it when it won …think most people just want one or two bets that you consider the best value ..

    1. Hi Harold – the ‘Non’ Ifs and Buts results above are quite clear if just sticking to when I put up a staking amount, currently 76+6 since last November. Grumeti – well I wont apologise for mentioning Grumeti – he was in a shortlist of 7 from 34 runners that the stats suggested may go well. Clearly I wasn’t confident but did indicate that at the exchange prices I would maybe have a nibble – which I did, for fun money. Nothing more. Results like that, when I dont tip them, don’t go down in ‘official’ results. What readers did with that info after reading the post is up to them – you are right, there wasn’t a whole lot of confidence – but i am not sure if you can ever be over confident with 50/1 SP shots.

      The ‘one or two’ bets will return when I have confidence in the horses/races I am looking at – and results from such bets are as above.

  2. NO Harold,i dont for one,if you read most of the comments on here they want it exactly how it is make your own mind up when reading the blog if you want to back them or not.

  3. 7 from 34 …for a race that you where always going to be having a fun bet on for small stakes …hardly installs confidence ..have to say do like your stats as I do use them ..

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