A few decent pointers today at Chepstow where a case could be made on the stats alone…
2.00 Pipe is 10/25, 11 places +34 in maiden/novice hurdles at the track. That makes the Bank Manager of immediate interest at 14/1. I have had 1/2 on EW. That stat is from the bonus report and it is strong. The trainer is in form, 11/38, 19 places in last 30 days, and the horse has had a break after two underwhelming runs. This is his first run over hurdles and he gets the tongue tie for the first time. All in, with stats like that, were he to win at 14s I would feel a bit sick – he may not, but over the season Pipe in maiden/novice hurdles at the track will pay just fine.
2.30 – an interesting moderate hurdle race – Pipe again has a runner in here. 11/41 +23 here, but 11/30 with those priced 12/1 or under. 4/16, 6 places when Tom Scu is in the plate. He comes here after a break as well, having been poor LTO. But he was 16/1 and you can excuse any young horse a poor run. This will be easier than that race. Again, another micro angle that will pay over time and I have backed accordingly.
Bishop Wulston goes for Bowen here – 6/28, 9 places in hncp hurdles here, 3/5 with Bowen junior in the saddle. This horse was very poor on his last two starts and was sold out of a small yard which is possibly a concern in itself. Bowen’s record with stable newcomers is ok, but not spectacular. The biggest unknown is stamina and he appears unfancied in the market. This is one I am leaving I think, I hope I don’t regret it! He does step up and gets headgear – so ticks the ‘doing something different’ boxes, while having some form on the board.
3.35 – Derringtogether Bliss – runs for Bailey here who is 3/10 in handicap chases at the track to date, and the stable is in great form – 3/6 last 14 days. I have been digging into his stats as this is a novice handicap chase and the horse (a previous point winner) is making his chasing debut. Bailey is 4/13, 6 places since 2010 in such races, with horses having first chase start I believe. 3/10, 4 places with those having been off the track for 181+ days. It is clearly an open enough race near the top end – NTD is 2/7 with all handicap debutants here – but his chase stats are only modest – 5/45, 14 places. A 10% SR is ok but could be better. His horse does look like a decent chaser in the making and he did well LTO so he won’t be far away – a big horse open to improvement.
4.10 – Laughingalltheway goes for Keighley here who is 5/27, 12 places in handicap hurdles at the track. He has moderate form but is making his handicap debut, (trainer 4/42 with such runners), steps markedly down in trip, and gets blinkers for the first time. He is 12/1 and allows a speculative bet I think in what looks a poor race on paper. He could win or be tailed off.
5.10 – Finally, Hobbs is 4/11, 9 places with his NHF newcomers at the track. That makes Desert Retreat of some interest at 3/1. He has a very inexperienced jockey on but he has won a hunter chase, and must have some ability to be with this yard.
So, plenty to go at there. The Pipe Stats at this track are strong, and I would be confident will pay over the course of the season, hopefully starting today but if not, then next time.
One other ‘stat’ of interest..
9.10 Kempton – Simcock/Spencer are 5/18, 10 places at the track in handicaps. Maybe Now Baby steps up in trip here and is 6/1.
3.45 Nott – Daisy Boy (16/1 or under)
4.10 Chep – Taste The Wine (25/1 or under) – trainer only 4/62, 18 places in hurdles here, which is a bit off putting albeit a poor race.
4.40 Chep – Going Nowhere Fast (25/1 or under)
4.50 Nott – Crewe Cut (16/1 or under) / Nezar (8/1 or under)
5.00 Salisbury – Tagula Night (16/1 or under)
6.10 Kemp – Tychaios
An ‘October Micro Angle’ post is on its way…