Just a quick word on my plans for the next few weeks,leading up to November. Later today/tomorrow I will see if I can find any ‘October Trainers’ worth keeping an eye on – from a quick glance nothing jumped out at me – but I may have to dig a bit deeper. I will also be digging out my Emma Lavelle micro angle from last season and look at whether that is worth following again. Next I plan to find 10-40 odd ‘profile’ jumpers, mainly chasers I imagine – to follow throughout the season. But, we shall see what crops up. There are the winter All-Weather track profiles to pull together as well – and I could try and find some AW Profiles. Finally I plan to research a few trainer micro angles that could be followed throughout the season – but again, we shall see what comes to light. So, plenty to keep me busy. All of that lot will be blogged and/or sent out as free reports etc.
I am starting to think about the future of the blog and its direction, but will share with you my thoughts about that in due course!
No stand out horses to my eyes today but again a few pointers…
2.00 Sedge – Foster/Costello are 3/7, 4 places in all handicaps at the track – they have last time out CD winner Craigdancer in here at 11/2. Sayer/Hughes are 4/8 in handicap hurdles here and the trainer has a decent 20% SR in such events since 2010. Indeed you could back all of her handicap hurdlers here over time confident of coming out in front I think. The horse is 0/4, 0 places in hurdles and has been poor. He is weak in the market which isn’t a great sign for this yard – and comes up against two in form rivals. He is stepping up in trip (doing something different) but being flat bred I am not sure what stamina there is there. But, maybe there is enough there to expect a decent showing. They both come up against a well fancied Smith fav who won as he pleased LTO. The concern is that he steps back down in trip here by nearly 4f. There doesn’t look much pace in the race so they either try and make all or potentially risk getting done for toe late on. He could just be better than these but I wouldn’t jump at evens. It is hard to know what he beat LTO also.
3.05 – Sayer/Hughes (3/9, 7 places in chases at the track) team up again with Sendiym. I thought he would run ok LTO but his jumping was poor – well he was slow/deliberate and lost lengths at each fence and had to work hard on the flat to make up ground. That all told near the end. He is yet to win beyond 17f over fences and I was happy to leave him today. Maybe this small field and a return to this track will help – but he is 2/5, 4 places over 16.5f here. Still, such is the race type/quality he won’t be too far away – a fancied McCain horse in here to beat.
2.40 Ayr – no stats here but Bailey’s Concerto steps up by 4f or so here. He stays well over jumps and hasn’t had many flat runs, the last one being over 12f at Hamilton where he was staying on. At 12/1 I had a little EW bet as if he is going to make it on the flat it will probably be over a trip like this. He is unexposed in this sphere and could have plenty in hand, if the step up improves him. I was happy to pay at those odds to find out.
4.25 Ayr – Pettochside (20/1 or under)