Well for now I appear to perform well without the ‘pressure’ of tipping! The tips will be back at some point but I may just wait until the handicap chases start coming thick and fast, the further they run the better.(my ‘tipping’ race type of choice- although time will be the true test of that statement) Clearly there is a bit of educated guessing at this time of year when it comes to fitness etc with the jumpers.
For now, the shortlist is working well and I am not going to curse a horse by tipping it given my recent run. If I could repeat yesterday over and over again I would. 6 horses were shortlisted, finishing UP, 2,1,1,2,2 – all of those seconds were under 1/2 a length and all looked like winning at one stage in the final furlong. The two winners drifted to 5/1 and 6/1 and made for a decent day. Baker then added the bonus of an 8/1 winner, with two unplaced horses that drifted (I backed them all)- he really is in form at the moment and we have something to look forward to next September with his string!
So, no Tip again today but another shortlist that has a few horses of interest in…
Fanshawe/Tylicki team up again today at Kempton. The trainer 50/205, 101 places with handicappers at the track, now 14/45, 23 places with this jockey. BOTH of the horses that follow also ran on the turf LTO and therefore qualify for the Fanshawe AW Switchers micro system, which has a 30% SR with winners at all odds.
8.10 Kemton – Fly – he appears to be the fancied one and is being backed, generally 5/2.
8.40 Kempton – Aumerle – currently 16/1 with PP, a bit if an error I think given prices of the rest, I have a full point on Fly, and 1/2 on this one.
2.40 Warwick – Nick Williams is 6/16, 10 places with stable newcomers in recent years for +29 points SP. He runs Imperial Glance here. I have just checked his record in novice hurdles and it is 19/65, 33 places since 2010, +23 points SP. A solid 30% win SR. 2/9, 5 places with Johnson up in non-handicap hurdles (maidens+novice). So, plenty there for me to have had 1/2 point on at 10/1. The ‘trainer change’ stat will pay over time.
Trainer Track Profiles – POINTERS
I won’t detail every horse that the guide may throw up, and I won’t list them everyday (esp weekends/sundays) but I will put up the odd horse of interest and those I have backed…
Warwick…(all stats from guide, handicaps only, unless stated- ie from bonus guide)
3.40 – Dr Robbin runs for Bowen who is 3/10, 5 places with his hurdlers here. A small sample but they have ran well to date and he clearly doesn’t send many here. On breeding this horse looks like he will relish the step up in trip – but with a 9lb rise he will have to. 7/1 was worth 0.75 points for me. Tim Vaughan also runs Uncle Tone (he is 1/1 with handicap debutants at the track- got that from Geegeez report) and is 3/5 with his handicap hurdlers here. He looks to be weak in the market, and took an age to win a maiden hurdle – I am not sure if he will be good enough but have had 0.25 points on. The fav is a danger for team skelton – he has solid stats with his stable newcomers and this horse would go close if discovering old form. You could make a case to back him just on trainer change stats.
4.10 – Kilbree Kid – I also have 1/2 point on him at 11/2. Tom George is 4/10, 4 places with handicap chasers here, 4/9 when Brennan is up. The break should be no problem for him – he does have to prove a liking for going LH – the jury is still out on whether he is best RH, but as yet that is not conclusive. Hobbs/Jonjo/NTD have poor enough records with their chasers here given power of the yards- maybe it is asking too much for all of theirs to be beaten today.
Highland Lodge is a bit of a dog but if putting it all together could well demolish this field. I think I heard on ATR the other day that Emma Lavelle had moved her yard – if that is so I don’t blame her – for whatever reason, bar months of Oct/Nov, her string have never been predictable and have arguably been disappointing. She can clearly train and is maybe a yard to watch more closely this year.
4.40 – Gone Too Far – Alan King is 4/17, 8 places with chasers here, 3/8, 6 places with Hutchinson up. The trainer is in fine form at the moment and I will take fitness on trust. 1/2 on at 11/2 – it is safe to say I fear Creepy who has been very well backed and who has a decent record fresh. I wouldn’t back him at those odds now and he could well win, but if he falters, 11/2 is a fair price to take about Gone Too Far capitalising.
You can still get a copy for £27 below…(will become £44 (£37+VAT) on Thursday via ClickBank)
Williams (16/1 or under)
-2.50 Ling – Cherry Kool
-3.20 Ling- Ben Muir
-6.40 Kemp – Chief Entertainer
-7.10 Kemp – Fable of Arachne
Good Luck with all your bets today.