A Trip to Ayr: 19/09/15

Before we get to Ayr, a quick work on the stats guide…

It continued to point the way to the winners enclosure yesterday as Chicago Outfit led them a merry dance in the 6.05 at 8/1 – From emails and comments I know a few of you were on. The 2/1 fav in that race was trained by someone who was 0/22 with their handicap chasers at the track since 2010- he finished tailed off, and like most of my recent tips, ‘out the back of the TV’. From the emails I received I know a few of you used the stats in one way or another to point you to a few more winners as well, so well done.

If you want to get yours click the button below. You really have nothing to lose as if you find yourself not using it, or not liking it I will just give you a refund. There are some jumping cards tomorrow it should help with…

Onto Ayr…

Silver Cup 

Trends/Stats of note 

15/18 drawn 20+ or 7 or under (being in the middle not great) 83% winners, 57% runners. (15/207 runners)

-3/207 drawn outside of this – 17% winners, 43% runners. 

18/18 Top 10 LTO (0/120, 4 places worse than this, 25% runners, no wins, only 5.5% places)

15/18 Aged 3-5 – 83% wins, 66% runners. 3/160 aged 6+ – 16% winners, 33% runners 

12/18 ran 1-15 days ago

18/18 had won over at least 6f, 9/113 runners won over 7f. 

14/18 2-4 career wins . 

13/18 1-2 handicap wins 

16/18 had never won in class  – 2/151 had won in class, 11% winners, 31% runners. 

Track LTO 

Ascot 0/8, 0 places 

Chester 0/35, 4 places 

Goodwood – 0/48, 3 places 

Ripon – 0/30, 4 places 

Positives for Ayr, Donc, York and Haydock LTO

TRAINERS 

Fahey 2/39, 6 places 

Goldie 1/24, 1 place 

Johnson 0/9, 0 places 

Nicholls – 4/52, 10 places 

Ryan – 0/30, 5 places 

T D Easterby – 0/13 , 1 place 

JJ Quinn 0/7, 4 places 

Dodds: 2/14, 5 places 

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SELECTIONS

JOHARA 2 points win 8/1 

Jamaican Bolt – 1/2 point EW 33/1 5 places (general)

Well, by focusing on two main stats -Top 10 finish LTO and a win over 6f or further, cuts the field down to a more manageable number. That leaves Hillbilly Boy, Eccelston, Shared Equity, Foxtrot Romeo, Chookie Royale, Nameitwhatyoulike, Barnet Fair, Desert Force, George Bowen, Jamaican Bolt…

I havent looked at any others and if another wins they will be the first in 18 runnings to do so. Those outside Top 10 LTO are 0/120, 4 places. 

Johara is the most likely winner – is she ‘value’ in a race of this nature – well, just about I think. The trainer is 2/4, 4 places at the track, which is an aside but he doesnt mess around when coming here. With a clear run I can’t see her being outside the top 5. But, I have gone win only but that is up to you. I have watched that Thirsk race, which is working out very well. She could have won that easily if she was meant to. Given an easy ride out the back she ‘found’ trouble a few times and the jockey did his best to look like he was riding a finish – she had plenty left, and this must have been the plan. She could have any amount in hand. The only thing that will stop her is luck. She is drawn high/wide, historically a positive but they have all been going up the middle this week – no perceived track bias. A lot of the pace is middle to low but she is a hold up horse. Ted will drop her behind no doubt – it could be a hard luck story but you take your chance. She has a near enough perfect profile for this race and we will get a run for our money. (if runner her race – usual caveat – could sweat up, get upset etc etc, they are not robots)

I wanted to go with a bigger priced one as well and from the shortlist Jamaican Bolt looked interesting to make the frame. He may want it a tad softer, and he doesn’t win too often, but he comes here fresh after returning from a break last time. He has the ability to go close in this and I thought he was worth a stab. 

Of the others. Well Eccelston has gone up in the weights, and as I said, if Johara was meant to win LTO I think she would have beaten him, in the race he won. But, he may not be too far away. George Bowen is progressive as well and is likely to run a bold race. The selection has a bit more ‘could be anything’ potential about her which swung the balance. But, I couldnt say much to put you off him, he is still improving. Historically being in the middle hasnt been ideal here. Hillbilly Boy hasnt been with connections long and appears better over further, he is also now 0/4, 1 place over OR91 – but, he may run his race. A curious jockey booking for me if they expected a big run. Shared Equity keeps placing and may run another consistent race, but he also ran at the dreaded Goodwood LTO! The draw is a slight negative, historically, again. Would I be surprised if he ran his race and placed, no. Foxtrot is a monkey but is with Omeara now – he is 1/24, 0/7, 1 place C2 20k+, 0/8, 1 place 16+ runners.Not for me. Chookie is interesting. But is 0/6, 0 places at the track, is better on AW, and is 0/6, 1 place C2 on the flat. All turf wins have been over 7f, but another than may hit the frame. Nameitwhatyoulike is 0/11, 1 place C2 – so far proving that he doesnt have the ability as yet – also best on soft. Barnet Fair is interesting also but is best over 5f and stamina over 6f is questionable (other than at Goodwood, a ‘fast’ 6f) He is 0/21, 2 places OR 91+ and all wins with firm in title, 0/19, 2 places on Good. But, he is trained by the king of sprinters in these races. Desert Force is unexposed but was a bit too poor LTO for my liking, although that was at York and could be excused. Also drawn in the middle which is far from idea but another biggie that could hit the frame. 

Onto the main event, now…

***

Gold Cup…

Draw – not much but 25+ are 0/68, 5 places 

11/18 Top 4 LTO – 61% winners, 40% runners 

11/18 princed 14/1 – 20/1 (11/122, 25 places – 482 total number of runners) 

18/18 Aged 6 or younger (0/77, 6 places aged 7+) 

3 year olds are 1/74, 9 places – 5% wins, 15% runners 

16/18 Top 10 in market 

1-7 days rest – 1/61, 5 places 

18/18 had RUN over at least 6.5 furlong or further before. 

From those with a career win to name (1 horse won this with no previous wins) 17/17 had WON over 6f or further. 

8+ career wins: 0/52, 6 places 

6+ handicap wins: 0/61, 10 palces 

0/1 run in last 90 days: 0/63, 9 places 

18/18 – 0/2 wins in class: 0/60, 9 places 3+ class wins 

Track LTO 

York – 0/68, 7 places

* Unlike Silver Cup the likes of Chester etc have an ok record. This suggests it is not so much the tracks maybe, but more the race that horses last competed in at those tracks  – Or it could just be luck and how things have gone to date, but those stats are of interest. 

TRAINERS 

TD Barron – 0/18, 2 places 

Channon – 0/12, 0 places 

TD Easterby – 0/14, 2 places 

Fahey – 1/38 , 7 places 

Goldie – 0/23, 1 place 

Nicholls – 6/65, 12 places (+65 points) 

Ryan – 3/33, 6 places 

***

SELECTIONS 

Buckstay – 1 point EW 16/1 (5 places, general for those with 5 places) 

Toofi – 1 point EW 12/1 (5 places, as above) 

Well I havent tried to over complicate things here too much. The market is usually a good guide in this with 16/18 in the Top 10, Just using that would cut field in half and if looking at odds checker would take you down to around Heaven’s Guest…

18/18, age 6 or under, 18/18 had RUN over 6.5 or further in career, 18/18 0-2 class wins (unexposed,handicapper not in charge)  0/60 had more, didnt run at YORK last time out (0/68) – some of the ‘place stats’ for these stats are in line with what they should be, so they may be broken, but I had to narrow down field somehow…

ignoring market for moment, those set of stats leaves a shortlist of…Jack Dexter, Sound Advice, Toofi, Professor, Ninjago, Buckstay, Red Pike, Boom the Groom and Highland Accliam…would I fall of my seat if any of them won, no. 

However, Jack Dexter – has a lot of weight, may need it softer and has been well beaten in this race before, 0/4, 1 place OR 101+, racing of 108 here. He has a touch of class and may not be too far away, and is in top 10 market. Sound Advice…all wins over further and is 0/3, 0 places over 7f,wins over 7.5/8f. Not sure if he will have the speed for this, but is in form. Professor – if he had a recent run would be shorter than this but horses with 0/1 run in 90 days are 0/63 – he may need it. But, if race fit, would make 40s look silly I think. Decent horse when on song. Ninjago is just too hard to predict, now 0/13 in handicaps. He has the ability, but may need 7f to show best. Red Pike yet to win handicap above C4, 0/8, 4 places above this. Ability is the big question, or lack of, for this level. Boom The Groom has a decent spring on turf in him but i think needs it quicker and he has a stamina question or two, all best turf form over 5f, and quick 5fs at that (Epsom), but he is interesting. 

Highland Acclaim will be thereabouts but was well beaten in this last year, but ran well. A slow starter he will need a lot to fall right and will be running on at the end. Tudhope is up and he could well figure. 

I have gone for one high and one low here. 

Toofi should get taken into the race by Hoof It (he couldnt grab the rail and stay there could he??-), who he let have first run LTO and who was able to dictate from front with another. Nothing was coming from behind at Donny at that meeting so he did well. A fast run 6f looks to be the ideal trip and the first time visor could eek out more. It could buzz him up too much but I will take that risk. That form at Goodwood is decent enough and he should be thereabouts if there is no track bias. He should give us a run for money and not be too far away. 

Buckstay is interesting. He got his head in front last time which may do him the word of good, in first time headgear. Now, he could well not have the pace here. This his first ever run at 6f. (horses are 1/10, 2 places in race that had never ran over trip)- he will stay, and if they go fast enough wont be too far away. He could still have a bit in hand, undoubtedly has the class, is in form, and should like race conditions. PACE is the concern. On paper there is not loads of it but in a race like this they will surely get on with it. Again, if they all come to the middle, there will be enough to take each other on and set it up. He will need luck, as you always do in these races, but again should give us a bold run. The trainer is in decent nick and has only sent 3 horses here since 2009, one won. 

of the rest..well Golden Steps is interesting having won well LTO – but stamina for a stiff run 6f is there to prove. He got 6f at Ascot so he should be fine and there isnt too much I could say to put you off. The trainer is 3/50 in last 30 days mind. But, if he runs like he did LTO, not too far away. Rivelleno ran well from the wrong side LTO and that caught the eye. Another who could run his race but may well want it much quicker than this. Hoof It is the final one of interest. He has a big age stats to overcome, 0/77, 6 places aged 7+, but he bounced back last time and may try and make all up the far side rail. A big run from him would not shock, but maybe the last race was the plot job, and this is a nice afterthought.

Dont Touch is Dont Touch. Young, progressive, from a brilliant yard. He won’t be far away – 3 year olds are only 1/74, 9 places – place stats in line with what they should be – he has yet to run over further than 6f. He will run his race but enough there for me not to want to take 8s on this occasion. 

Good Luck 

***

SEPTEMBER TRAINERS 

9.10 Wolv (16/1 or under) Mona Valley 

4.25 Newm (16/1 or under) Stake Acclaim 

JJ Quinn (8/1 or under) 

-4.45 Catt – Poetic Verse 

4.55 Ayr – Evanescent 

-5.30 Ayr – Forced Family Fun / Kashimir Peak / Trendsetter 

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I would like to hear your fancies for the two races above, and what those trends/stats may throw up for you…