Yesterday was good fun for any avid followers of the ‘September Trainers’ as Stuart Williams fired in two winners from four qualifiers at 16/1 and 8/1. Both were unsteady in the market and drifted – just proving that the horse doesn’t know his price and the market can be very wrong – esp for a stable that is considered ‘shrewd’. I am a big fan of the ‘portfolio’ approach to betting, and even more so when going through a ‘tipping/form’ based slump.
So, those two made it a profitable day for me and in general my ‘shortlist’ ran well. Pull The Pin just failed by a head to hold on from the front at 8/1 (although may well have lost it in stewards room if he had won by a head), Bakht A Rawan ran a decent race in 3rd (11/2>7/2) without ever really looking like the winner, Falsify came second to the Williams winner and Savannah Beau just wasn’t good enough.
There are NO TIPS again today.
The two races with the most compelling stats are a 2yo nursery and a race for Gentleman Amateur riders – not two race types I would want to rely on when needed a winner/value bet…
2.40 Chester – Kingston Kurrajong – runs here for Andrew Balding who is 23/89, 44 places with handicappers at the track. He is 10/36, 19 places with Probert up – they also team up with Communicator in the 4.25 – Balding is also 2/9. 4 places with handicap debutants at the track. I thought 6s looked big for this LTO CD winner and I can’t see him being too far away from his low draw. Of course most of these are open to some kind of improvement and the market suggests 5 of them have a decent enough chance.
5.30 Chester – Curzon Line (11/2 – being backed) runs for M Easterby here who is 5/17, 7 places at the track with his handicappers. This horse is unexposed and will stay – he should relish this step back up in trip. For the level he has a decent jockey on board. The jockey is clearly a risk, as is the fact he is usually held up which is dangerous here if the pace does not collapse. But, everything suggests a decent run here and I don’t think he will be too far away.
Doncaster- again nothing to excite this particular scribe – after a long season everything in the 4.15 has something to prove. A speculative EW bet would be Chookie Royale at 16s – at the prices the most interesting to me. If fit after a break (an if built into the price) this prominent racer has the class to win this, and has course form, and will stay. But, again, that is a cursory glance. Clearly those near the top of the market have stand out chances on recent form.
-4.25 Chest – Kashgar (25/1 or under)
-5.15 Sand – Fiftyshadesfreed (8/1 or under0
-6.50 Salisbury – Vincenzo Cocotti (20/1 or under)