Well a better run for our money yesterday but Empty The Tank bumped into one returning to form from nowhere, which is never a total shock at that level, with everything else well beaten. I thought 3s was fair and he was backed into 6/4 – sadly that was as good as it got. Becoming an ‘official tip’ continues to be a curse…
The shortlist continued to churn out the winners. The stats based selections finishing 1, 1, UP, UP , UP – Two winners at 7/1 and 5/1. Clement ran ok and at one stage looked like winning, and then looked like placing, only to be run out of 3rd, finishing 4th – no return for my EW bet at 14/1. In general they ran well enough. The two winners were in non-handicaps for unexposed horses, and with little form to go on (in that race type), those types of stats are a decent way in.
There is NO BET today. There are some horses of interest, but they are in 3yo only handicaps and poor quality handicaps, races I am not comfortable tipping in. As always it is now a ‘considered’ shortlist, so I am hoping they run well…
2.40 Epsom – Bakht A Rawan is interesting in here given he has decent course form and drops in class, for a trainer who is 3/10, 5 places at the track with all handicappers here to date. He should track the pace and I don’t think he will be too far away. They are all 3yo’s, there are some more unexposed ones in here and plenty are in form, but 11/2 was fair.
7.40 Chelm – this is an awful quality race but Pull The Pin does catch the eye. He is low drawn and is an out and out front runner. He has not won for an age, but has been in decent enough ‘place’ form and I expect he will be leading turning for home. 8/1 was a decent enough price to find out whether he can stay there. There are two other front runners in here but they are drawn high and could struggle to get out and across by the time the bend comes. If they do, then they could ruin all their chances. In these kinds of races form does not matter so much, and this owner has 3 in here, which always raises an eyebrow or two!
8.10 – Chelm -Falsify returns having won for the blog on her last run. She steps up in class here but should be able to dictate and could well improve again. She is generally 2/1 which is just about short enough in my opinion, given the oppo is better today and she will need to step forward. If you can get 5/2 or 3/1 I probably couldn’t put you off a small interest.
Again nothing for me to get too excited about. A lot of horses won from the front/tracking the pace yesterday. I am not sure if that was to do with the ground and/or the wind,(or just one of those things) but it will be interesting if that pattern repeats itself today.
The 6.00 looks a competitive handicap sprint as you would expect. It looks rather impossible given most of them have run so many times this season it is hard to know if they are over the top etc – many have bits and pieces of form to give them a chance. From a quick scan, Savannah Beau caught the eye at 16s towards the bottom. The only 3yo in the race he has been holding his form well enough and looks to be crying out for a step back up in trip to my eyes. If the track favours front runners again he has no chance, being a hold up horse. He will need plenty of luck but is definitely fit and has been ultra consistent. I have probably talked myself into a 1/4 point EW to see, but it really isnt a race you can have an overly strong opinion about I don’t think and if you really fancy something, good luck.
-2.40 Epsom – Little Lord Nelson (16/1 or under)
-5.00 Epsom – Harwoods Star (16/1 or under)
-5.40 Chelm – Authroized Spirit (16/1 or under)
-8.10 Chelm – Ohsosecret (16/1 or under)
(another second yesterday at decent odds of 9/1 – qualifiers have been running well in general, lots of places, a few more winners would be welcome)