A few months ago now I was thinking about what I could produce/create that would be practical for you and I to use during the jumps season. I wanted to create a quick reference guide that would be useful in highlighting possible winners, based on trainer habits. I wanted to create something that would be useful whatever level of betting and engagement you have with the sport, and whether you use tools like HorseRaceBase or GeegeezGold or just use what is freely available.
I am a believer that you can over complicate this game and as a ‘way in’ looking at a trainer’s record in a race type (namely handicap hurdles and handicap chases) can be very profitable. So too their record with certain jockey’s and also their record with handicap debutants. It is also useful to know which trainers to avoid.
So, I have been busy going through every winter National Hunt track in Great Britain, pulling together what I deem useful/interesting stats for each course. I have a handful left to complete but it is full of fascinating stats and I would like to think it will be an ‘essential’ must have 🙂
I am looking at handicaps only. For each track I have pulled together ‘Positive’ Trainers ‘Could do Better’ Trainers, Trainer/Jockey Combos (positives/could do better) and ‘Of Interest’ Trainers with their handicap debutants – all broken down by Handicap Hurdles and Handicap Chases. I am also planning to pull together a few bonus guides , looking at some Non-Handicap races, especially NHF races. (I may do a guide/include Irish Tracks as well)
There are many ways I imagine this guide will be used.
1. It will be printed off/used online and be a handy reference point for any handicap race you are looking at.
2. I plan to produce an A5 version that can be printed off to be used when you go racing. (as yet no plans to produce and mail a ‘book’ as such)
3. Those of you with system building software may use the stats as a ‘way in’ to creating some micro angles to track further. Or in general you may just focus on a handful of key stats that you wish to follow and keep track of throughout the season – or you may have your favoured tracks.
So, next week I plan to send you a free guide – a larger snap shot of the main guide that you can start using straight away.
And then of course, I will be selling the main guide. No hiding that. It is currently 70 pages and over 31 000 words, and I think it will be an exciting addition to your punting armoury. But, whether you decide to purchase it or not, I plan to give you enough free snippets over the coming days that will help you find winners this jumps season.I will say more about the main guide next week. ( I think it is priced fairly for what you get)
***
So, with that said, I had better give you some ‘value’ in today’s post that you can start using when the jumping kicks of proper. ( I will explain my approach to pulling the stats together at a later point. Nothing overly scientific, I have made a subjective judgement on no. of bets, wins, win strike rate, places and profit to SP, as well as trainers or combos that caught the eye)
Importantly it is very much my own view on what is ‘positive’ and what is ‘could do better’. I present the stats as I found them and very much encourage you to interpret them in your own way. Sometimes I have viewed a win strike rate as a negative, sometimes the losses to SP etc. (The stats are ordered by most wins first) With the ‘Could Do Better’ stats 10 runners was a minimum requirement for inclusion.
***
So, to start with one full track ‘profile’….
(All stats since start of 2010 to present / SR refers to winning Strike Rate)
Let’s take CARLISLE as an example…
***
CARLISLE
Handicap Hurdles
Trainers
Positives
- N G Richards: 19 bets / 6 wins / 7 places / 31.58% SR / +27 SP
- Jonjo O’Neill: 11 bets / 6 wins / 8 places / 54.55% SR / +9.93 SP
- J Wade: 16 bets / 4 wins / 5 places / 25% SR / +15.44 SP
- G A Swinbank: 16 bets / 4 wins / 5 places / 25% SR / +23 SP
- Mrs A C Hamilton: 10 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 33.33% SR / +28.75 SP
- Miss Venetia Williams: 9 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 33.33% SR / -0.5 SP
- K G Reveley: 4 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 50% SR / +16 SP
- Keith Dalgleish: 3 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 66.67 % SR / +7.3 SP
Could Do Better
- D McCain: 55 bets / 6 wins / 16 places / 10.91% SR / -25.92 SP
- Mrs S J Smith: 31 bets / 4 wins / 7 places / 12.9% SR / -14.15 SP
- M A Barnes: 28 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / 7.14 % SR / -6 SP
- James Moffatt: 24 bets / 2 wins / 6 places / 8.33 % SR / -9 SP
- A C Whillans: 27 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / 7.41 % SR / -15.25 SP
- Miss Lucinda V Russell: 53 bets / 2 wins / 15 places / 3.77 % SR / -41 SP
- Barry Murtagh: 23 bets / 1 win / 2 places / 4.35% SR / -14.5 SP
- Jennie Candlish: 17 bets / 1 win / 7 places / 5.88 % SR / -13 SP
- N W Alexander: 12 bets / 0 wins / 1 place / -12 SP
- Miss S E Fortser: 14 bets / 0 wins / 1 place / -14 SP
- C Grant: 11 bets / 0 wins / 3 places / -11 SP
- A Crook: 10 bets / 0 wins / 1 place / -10 SP
- S W Coltherd: 12 bets / 0 wins / 3 places / -12 SP
- J P L Ewart: 12 bets / 0 wins / 3 places / -12 SP
Trainer/Jockey Combo
Positives
- N G Richards/Brian Harding: 10 bets / 5 wins / 5 places / 50% SR / +21 SP
- D McCain/Jason Maguire: 21 bets / 4 wins / 9 places / 19.05% SR / +1.88 SP
- Mrs A C Hamilton/Mr T Hamilton: 6 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 50% SR / +32.75 SP
- J Wade/Brian Hughes: 8 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 37.5% SR / +0.44 SP
- T D Easterby/Brian Harding: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% SR / +4.88 SP
- Mrs Dianne Sayer/Miss E C Sayer: 9 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 22% SR / +29 SP
Could Do Better
- A C Whillans/Ewan Whillans: 20 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / 10% SR / -8.25 SP
- Miss Lucinda V Russell/Peter Buchanan: 21 bets / 1 win / 4 places / 4.76 % SR / -15 SP
Handicap Hurdle Debut
189 bets / 19 wins / 48 places / 10.05% SR / +27.63 SP / AE 0.9
Of Interest
- Jonjo O’Neill: 4 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 75% SR / +7.35 SP (only multiple winner)
- N G Richards: 2 bets / 1 win / 2 places / 50% SR / +10 SP
- Miss Lucinda V Russell: 14 bets / 1 win / 6 places / 7.14 % SR / -8 SP
- D McCain: 18 bets / 1 win / 3 places / 5.56 % SR / -15.8 SP
- P A Kirby: 6 bets / 0 wins / 0 places / -6 SP
- James Moffatt: 5 bets / 0 wins / 0 places / -5 SP
Handicap Chases
Trainers
Positives
- Mrs S J Smith: 69 bets / 12 wins / 25 places / 17.39% SR / +22.08 SP
- M J Jefferson: 21 bets / 5 wins / 11 places / 23.81% SR / +19.33 SP
- J P L Ewart: 25 bets / 5 wins / 9 places / 20% SR / +2.7 SP
- S W Coltherd: 21 bets / 4 wins / 8 places / 19.05% SR / +20.5 SP
- M A Barnes: 14 bets / 4 wins / 6 places / 28.57% SR / +6.25 SP
- R Lee: 14 bets / 4 wins / 9 places / 28.57% SR / +10.1 SP
- Miss Venetia Williams: 12 bets / 3 wins / 4 places / 25% SR / +14.88 SP
- P Bowen: 6 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 50% SR / +21 SP
- Keith Dalgleish: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% SR / +10.5 SP
- G A Swinbank: 4 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 50% SR / +3.38 SP
Could Do Better
- D McCain: 32 bets / 4 wins / 8 places / 12.5% SR / -12.05 SP
- Mrs Dianne Sayer: 26 bets / 3 wins / 7 places / 11.54% SR / -2.25 SP
- M Todhunter: 30 bets / 2 wins / 6 places / 6.67% SR / +7.5 SP
- Barry Murtagh: 16 bets / 1 win / 2 places / 6.25 % SR / -12.25 SP
- JonJo O’Neill: 24 bets / 0 wins / 4 places / -24 SP
- D W Whillans: 11 bets / 0 wins / 0 places / -11 SP
Trainer/Jockey Combo
Positives
- J P L Ewart/Brian Hughes: 11 bets / 5 wins / 6 places / 45.45% SR / +16.7 SP
- N A Twiston-Davies/ S T-D: 14 bets / 3 wins / 5 places / 21.43% SR / +7.5 SP
- P Bowen/Jamie Moore: 4 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 50% SR / +18 SP
- M Todhunter/James Reveley: 9 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 22.22% SR / +28.5 SP
- Mrs S J Smith/Mr J England: 7 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 28.57% SR / +13 SP
- Mrs Venetia Williams/Liam Tredwell: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% SR / +22 SP
Could Do Better
- Miss Lucinda V Russell/Peter Buchanan: 67 bets / 9 wins / 20 places / 13.43% SR / -4.67 SP
- N W Alexander/Miss L Alexander: 23 bets / 2 wins / 6 places / 8.7% SR / -11.5 SP
- D McCain/Jason Maguire: 19 bets / 1 win / 2 places / 5.26% SR / -16.8 SP
Handicap Chase Debut
146 bets / 16 wins / 36 places / 10.96% SR / -57.44 SP / AE 0.86
Of Interest
No trainer with more than one winner. No others of interest.
***
Hopefully you can see how such stats could be a useful starting point for finding some decent bets, or helping you to frame a race. There may be some trainers or trainer/jockey combos you would like to track all season. Certainly Nicky Richards handicap hurdlers should be kept onside, and even more so when Brian Harding is up top.
***
So, that hopefully gives you a flavour. The guide is essentially as above but for every winter NH track in England, Scotland and Wales.
***
Some other stats of interest, that made me sit up and take note…
Cheltenham…
These stats are for ‘outside of the Festival’
Handicap Hurdlers… (could do better)
- Jonjo O’Neill: 41 bets / 3 wins / 9 places / 7.32% SR / -3.25 SP
- A King: 37 bets / 3 wins / 7 places / 8.11% SR / -16.5 SP
***
Chepstow…
Handicap Hurdlers…(could do better)
- P F Nicholls: 31 bets / 3 wins / 7 places / 9.68% SR / -20.37 SP
Handicap Chase (could do better)
- P F Nicholls: 40 bets / 2 wins / 7 places / 5% SR / -33.5 SP
***
For the size and power of those stables above I found those stats surprising. Of course there are plenty more where those came from.
***
Depending on your approach to betting you may interpret all of the stats in different ways, and place more value on some over others, or indeed want to delve deeper into some of the stats.
Anyway, that will do for today. I will send out a free guide next week with a few more full track profiles in.
Any questions/comments please do fire away.
Josh
18 Responses
are you sending out a A5 version of all all at what cost?
Hi John, I will include a downloadable A5 version in the package when people sign up, as well as standard size PDF. Then just a case of printing it off/the certain tracks you want at home. This is the first time I have produced a guide like this and have no idea as to the appetite – hence weariness of publishing a proper book at this stage, but I wont rule that out in future.
Hi Josh
Big fan of trainer habits especially the smaller yards, less runners/better prices. For me its finding the time to complete the type of search’s that you have kindly done. Much appreciated!!
Good to hear – yes can be a gold mine for the smaller stables that dont have many runners. But also some of the stats for bigger stables have caught my eye,and many were surprising. Yes it is all about time, each track takes about 1 hour or so. Hopefully you will find what I have produced useful.
hi josh
have read your blog on races impressed.but if you want to add to it (N.RICHARDS IN HANDICAP HURLES,BLINKERED FIRST TIME,TAKE NOTE).have used it a few times and it delivers.not sure where I got it from,but it is worthwhile looking out for them,a little snappit with gain.
Cheers Robert – yes I like those little headgear angles,certainly some trainers use them better than others. I didn’t want to make this guide overly complicated but will have a look at that now you have mentioned it.
great work josh
Thanks Ant, it has been a labour of love! I am just onto Towcester now, nearly there!
Nicky Richards record in bumpers, is also worth noting.
My admiration Josh !
I can’t begin to imagine the time and effort involved to produce that amount of information for just one track. It will be interesting to compare stats for different grades of tracks. I wonder how much of a trainers success any where can be attributed to horses for courses which can be an important factor.Take away a top trainers best 10 horses and replace them with forty class 5 or 6 grade horses and strike rates would alter quite markedly I reckon.
Ron
Thanks Ron…well, it is between 1hour and 1.5 hours per track – and there are quite a few tracks!! (finding the data in HRB is quick enough, it is then just the compiling/typing/checking. That initial voyage of discovery is quite fun, as is unearthing stats that you are confident will pay over time.
Some decent points there, esp about grade of tracks, no doubt linked to prize money and quality of horse and how trainers target their horses.
Horse for Courses – a fascinating subject and what makes a horses for courses horse. Constitution/breeding, training facilities at home, how they are trained, how they are targeted (may be aimed to peak at same course/races etc)
But, without doubt trainers are creatures of habit – esp where some send their handicap debutants and the jockeys they use etc. I am confident this guide will steer anyone who uses it, even in small doses, to a plenty of winners.
Sounds good to me Josh. After some of my results this Year. Form/Speed etc. I was turning my attention more towards Trainers habits etc. Lets face it too a certain extent we all know trainers in HcPs place charges at wrong Distance\Wrong Track\Wrong Jockey etc . What they cant do is hide their stats or whether the Stable is in form . I miss the old Trainers record book so Keep up good work will be of great assistance in picking winners knocking out no hopers.R
I’m not from the UK and could be way off beam here but I’m always wary of a limited sample. Is there any evidence that a trainer having a good year at a certain track in 2014 will replicate it in 2015?
Hi – you are always right to be wary of small samples, but that is the nature of the beast with trainer angles, esp track based ones. Those stats are from the start of 2010, over 5 years worth – and you either see them as useful as a guide, or not at all and you dont bother. Many like trainer angles, many do not. By looking at trainers/tracks you are looking at behaviour and you dont need a massive sample to see if a trainer looks like they have a clear liking for running certain horses at certain tracks. Of course a trainer’s record could just be made up of one or two horses winning, and that is something to keep in mind. But, these type of stats are meant to be an indication and a guide, the more info the better I find – not something to use as stand alone necessarily – although there are a few cases where you could imo.
Hi josh I would just like to say how much I look forward to reading your emails every day , it’s one of the best horse racing reads you could wish for and makes so much sense .
Thanks for your kind words Thomas, and for reading my ramblings.
Hi Josh,
In your blog you used the phrase “when the jumping kicks off proper”.
I’m interested to know what you consider to be the start and end of the jumping season for the purposes of betting. Do you bet right from day one of the calendar season through to the last day or do you prefer to hold back for a few weeks at the start to see how trainers/jockeys are performing? Similarly, do you bet right through to the last day of the season proper or do you ease off a couple of weeks before?
Hi Chris…
That was more a reference to the end of the summer jumping I suppose and more ‘winter’ tracks starting to have racing…but that is a very good question. Yes much like the flat you do want to see the form settle down a bit – more in the sense of fitness and weighing up the strength of the form of those who have been racing through the summer. As a rough guide I suppose November is when it starts to feel ‘proper’ to me. That doesn’t mean I won’t bet at all, it is just being more cautious. If you have a race of 8 say and 6 haven’t raced for 3 months+ it just adds to the uncertainty.Getting a feel for stable form is important too as you point out. However, as with all things, if doubts etc are factored into the price in your opinion there will be bets to be had. I don’t think I have ever consciously eased off towards the end of the season. I don’t have any set rules with these things, and it depends on your approach to betting – ie you may follow a horse who has a brilliant first time out record, or come across one that does, who pops up in the next few weeks.