Another day of poor ‘final’ decision making on my part – with hindsight of course – as the considered shortlist horses finished 2,1,1,Up. The September trainers were 2,3,3,1 with all winners on the day available at 4/1 at the time of posting. Strobe clearly had an off day as the market indicated he was about to and was pulled up with quite a way to go. I read Robin’s Command’s race wrong from a tipping perspective as I thought it looked more competitive than that on paper – but he obliterated them. In jumps racing I am not sure if there are many better sights than seeing a bold jumping front runner over 2m.
Anyway the ‘official’ slump continues and you may be pleased to hear that there are NO BETS today.
6.40 – Ian Jardine is in fine form at the moment, 4/12, 8 places in last 2 weeks. If Push Me repeats her last run she will go very close here I think. She has course form and wont be too far away. In the same race Tim Vaughan runs Make The Difference. He is 11/42, 23 places with handicappers at the track and is 4/9, 7 places when teaming up with this jockey. The horse has a bit to prove but has the ability to win this and looked to show more signs of life LTO. Vaughan’s stable is hard to read, forever blowing hot and cold, he is 1/21 in the last 14 days. 2/1 was plenty short enough to my eyes. Finally, Old Storm. I am not sure if Johnson would have had the choice to ride the Vaughan runner, but either way this is the most unexposed hurlder in the race. What caught my eye when deciding what to do in this race, I noticed he is the only front runner (based on run styles to date) and the rest are hold up horses. I reckon Johnson could pinch and easy lead here and dictate. If he comes on for his last run which was after a slight break, he may not be too far away. Push Me may need a stronger run race than could take place here.
I have had a value play, and bet 1/2 points on both Push Me and Old Storm at 4s. MaketheDifference could win this well but I can’t take 2/1 with his profile. I would be mildly surprised if something else won.
David Pipe doesn’t mess around when sending horses up here. 8/23, 12 places with his handicappers. He is 6/15, 9 places when teaming up with Tom Scu. That makes Border Breaker of immediate interest in the 7.10, and a case could be made for backing blind (a bit like Equity Risk yesterday) This is only his second chase start and he comes here after a break. But, he will be fit, the drop back looks fine and he could well get his own way up front. However, 11/4 was just short enough for one so inexperienced. He may make that look a big price but he does have questions to answer. 4/5s would have tempted me. Enchanted Garden won’t be too far away – his trainer is 6/28, 11 places at the track with handicappers. He has won a chase and is unexposed. They look the most interesting in here. Pipe also runs one in the last but has a very inexperienced jockey on top and in general I like leaving those race types alone. As the market suggests you could make a case for most of the field.
-3.30 Leic – Eton Rambler (8/1 or under – although a few bigger priced ones been placing)
-4.35 Leic – Firm Decisions (16/1 or under)