Well the curse of the ‘tip of the day’ email continued and I won’t be rushing to inform the list of such a post anytime soon! Most of the horses on the blog ran well bar the two main selections – typical. Brave Spartacus was just poor with everything in his favour. He got an easy enough lead and either wasn’t over his last run, or as a reader pointed out to me via email, is possibly being aimed at a Chase later in the month according to trainer comments. Fairyinthewind was also poor and didnt look to run her race. If you are an owner of Miss Tenacious you deserved that win given how she appeared to like placing- she, along with the selection , both drifted to 6/1.
Meanwhile one of the shortlist horses won at 7/2, the other came second at 8/1 having been mullered at the top of the straight at Bath. I am no sure that made all the difference but the horse almost stopped and ran on strongly. The others placed at decent enough odds too – Mister Mayday looked like a rare winner above 8/1 for Baker in September – but he is such a dog and just would not go past the leader.
So, another day of frustration with my decision making iffy again. That will continue to happen no doubt with the approach to these posts and with the info provided I hope some of you come to make better decisions than I do occasionally! But, at least a few winners are being posted, but it would be nice if I could ‘officially’ tip some of them! (as well as leaving John Flints runners at Bath on my notepad – a loser at 5/4 and a winner at 8/1, taking his record at the track to 8/21 odd in handicaps at the track)
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Running Total:
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03/09/15
6.00 Clonmel
Tb Broke Her 1/2 point EW 12/1 (BV,PP,Coral)
8.15 Chelmsford
Fossa 1/2 point EW 14/1 (WH) 12/1 (general)
When in search of a winner it would be easy for me to try and find one near the top of the market but I would be betraying my principles and in general you should never be ‘put off’ a horse due to price alone – albeit there are a few exposed horses that have a ‘price profile’ and only perform when the money is down.
As it happens these are the two I was most confident on, from a shortlist on my notepad that is lacking in short priced horses.
TB Broke Her…The trainer is 5/15, 6 places with handicappers at the track since 2009. That will do. If you have a HRB account add it in as a micro system – he doesn’t send many but over time they do rather well. £1 on every one of them would have won you around £64, so we can expect some decent priced ones every now and then.
This horse is a CD winner and compared to these is unexposed, this being her 7th handicap run. After winning here a few runs ago she ran well enough in some competitive races (in terms of field size). She then has a mini break and returned last time running ok. I suspect that blew away the cobwebs and we can expect better here. I see no reason why she wont run her race and could not let 12/1 pass me by.
This is a weak race. Beautiful Ben is a worth enough fav given his recent form but he could need a tad further here, and the trainer is only 3/41 at the track. But, he should be thereabouts. The rest have plenty to prove to my eye, not many of these have won/or like winning very often and while a few have pieces of placed form that would give them a squeak there wasn’t enough strength in depth for me to think the selection won’t be able to get involved. If she runs like she did on her last visit to the track she wont be far away.
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Fossa…
Dean Ivory was on my radar when looking at the September Trainers and infact his record over August and September does stand out. Since 2010 he is 12/52, 18 places with handicappers in September, consistent and profitable in every year. I will fill those stats out and may add him to the list. He is in form as well. He is 2/4, 3 places when teaming up with Robert Winston at the track.
The horse…well he is 3/9, 6 places over 6f, and is 3/6, 5 places when dropping into C6, 4/10, 7 places LH. He ran ok after a 73 day break earlier in the year to make me think he could be tuned up here. There looks to be plenty in his favour and again I couldn’t let 14s go. He may need this run, but he will be winning in C6 again soon and I have no concerns about getting my money back in future if today is not the day. He looks like a C6 bully.
Now this is a competitive race, more so on paper than the hurdle race above.
Daring Dragon to an age to get off the mark but won LTO, his record now 1/21. If building on that – not assured- he would go close. Bubbly Bailey ticks enough boxes to suggest a decent enough run. Ben Hall is now 0/14, 1 place in handicaps, that place being LTO where he ran well enough. Again, if building on that could run well,but not a profile I would like to get too excited about.
Foxford looks the obvious danger having won well LTO. He is unexposed but is 0/6, 1 place LH and is new to the track. If taking to it clearly he has a favourites chance, and is priced accordingly I think. Indus Valley is 0/12, 2 places on AW when rated in Or 61-70 band – is 4/16, 7 places when rated OR60 or below on AW (add him to your trackers) There are a couple of others unexposed with the rest having a bit to prove to my eye – plenty of these dont win very often – but always at this level on the sand nothing is ever a total surprise.
14s felt too big for Fossa here and I am happy to take a chance. Ben Hall and Bubbly Bailey could take each other on here, with Winston tracking the pair. Hopefully he can then pick up the pieces as the pace folds.
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Shortlist…
Hughie Morrison likes sending handicapper to Chelmsford and so far is 6/10, 7 places with his handicappers here. He runs Star Rider in the 6.45. She was 8/1 last night and is being backed, the jockey claim could make the difference, or not. This race has plenty in here open to improvement and wasn’t a race I was comfortable tipping in. But, 8/1 looked big and I had a nibble. She did run well at Royal Ascot and has been running ok, but does need to step up I think.
Robert Cowell…he is 2/52 with 2yo debutants in the last 5 years, but is 1/1 here at Haydock. These are not stats to bet the mortgage on, nor the race type in which to do so, but his Zain Emperor in the 2.30 caught my eye last night at 14/1. He appears to be drifting today, but his winner here was 33/1. He could be poor but I couldn’t resist 1/4 point.
Hannon is 4/19, 5 places at Salisbury with 2yo newcomers – running one in the 2.40 (short price) and one in the 3.10. I haven’t backed either as yet but decent runs would be no surprise.
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September Trainers
-5.20 Salis – Bountybeamadam (8/1 or under)
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7 Responses
Morning Josh
Wasn’t sure whether you would go with TB Broke Her but I am her an Fossa and have gone in with H Morrison’s Star Rider in the 6:45 at Chelmsford.
Good luck
Morning John – hopefully a profitable day ahead – we should get an exciting run for our money for all three I suspect! – yes I don’t like platyng in Ireland too often (not sure why, habit!) but those trainer stats were solid enough – and actually a lot of the other trainers have very poor records here. She should be spot on for this.
A micro angle i’ve been following is J.p Ferguson and A.Coleman. Not going to retire off the winners as they all go off very short but 36/77 p/l 18.22 46.75 strike rate a.e 1.13.
Very dissapointing , the last few days selections have run appalingly .let’s hope things pick up .
Yes the wheels have come off since According to Sarah got beat by a nose. Will get our money back on Fossa,took chance at 14s,backed into 8s suggested was fit,ran as if needed the run. Will be keeping at eye on. Everything went wrong for first one, messed around start, and noseband came loose,flapped in face,unsighted two hurdles,another jockey had to rip it off, and after that she didn’t seem interested, running amiss, ill, or downed tools after all those issues. That trainer will pay there in time.
Regarding .6.00 Clonmel. T B BROKE HER ….the trainer has had 10 winners in the last 5 years ..yes 5 at Clonmel …his overall strike rate is about 6 per cent ..I myself wouldn’t use these stats for various reasons ..trainers strike rate and the fact he has had very few winners ..sometimes trainers stats can look pretty good at a track especially if its just one or 2 horses that are making them that way…
Yes I agree with that point Harold, especially looking to see how many horses make up the stats etc – clearly the trainer isn’t that great, and doesn’t have a large pool of horses, but the fact that 50% of his winners have been at Clonmel, in that context, I would say is more of a positive – it is maybe the only time you can have more confidence that they will run ok. Everyone to their own, and I am glad you dodged a bullet. At the prices I thought she was worth chancing but for one reason or another didnt run her race.