Tip of the Day 02/09/15

I hope you all had an enjoyable Bank Holiday weekend. My fleeting thoughts on Saturday managed to highlight Rene Mathis and as one reader pointed out, sometimes all it needs is a quick look! With a bit more study/time he may well have been an ‘official bet’ but there we go. The ‘September’ trainers also got off to a decent enough start yesterday, more on that shortly…

It was about time I ‘ officially tipped’ another winner so let’s get to it…

(I should add I am going to email out this post, and reminder for September trainers as well – everytime I have emailed out a ‘Tip of the Day’ horse so far they have lost, so you have been warned! 🙂 ) 

4.10 Southwell

Brave Spartacus 1 point win 7/2 (Bet365, Boyle,SJ,Coral, WH) 

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5.40 Worcester 

Fairyinthewind 1 point win 3/1 (BV/PP) 

Brave Spartacus….Team Reveley have a decent enough record when teaming up in Southwell handicaps…9/31, 18 places since 2009. That record, from my summer jumping stats pack, is 4/13, 9 places since 2010 in handicap hurdles. (may have had a couple more runners since then) 

So, they usually mean business when sending a runner here. 

Brave Spartacus is a fantastic enthusiastic front runner who always gives his all. He won a decent listed chase at Market Raisen last time out. I was unsure as to his stamina that day but he saw out the trip really well, and this race is slightly shorter. He also races off 5lb lower here due to this being a hurdle race. Now, that is the one concern – he is a better chaser. But, he is 3/16 over hurdles and is 4/4 in all handicaps when there are 7 or fewer runners. James will try and lead all the way here no doubt. There are a couple of others who have front run in recent starts but they are not out and out front runners and if he wants to dominate I think he will. 

I did sit on the fence for a while with this one but thought is he did win I would look back and think it was rather obvious really. He clearly has the class and if this were over fences would probably be odds on against this lot. 

The opposition have plenty to prove as well. Jonjo is 0/18, 7 places with his handicap debutants at the track and his Champagne Present has a bit of a break to overcome. His last two races haven’t exactly worked out well either – horses to have run since are 0/22, 5 places. He could well have plenty in hand as you would expect for an unexposed type but there is enough there to take him on at the prices I think, 11/4 feels short enough. Paolozzi is also unexposed and should appreciate this step up in distance. The trainer is 0/7, 3 places with handicap debutants in the last 5 years. The handicapper has seen enough to have a better idea with his mark and I wouldnt be convinced he has plenty in hand. But, he should improve for the step up – but will need to, taking on some decent rivals – this is no C4 novice hurdle. 

Songsmith is interesting but there is a stamina niggle for me if this is strongly run – he has faded late a few times over this sort of trip, with wins coming over shorter. He is also now 0/7. 2 places rated 121+ in handicap hurdles. The rest have a few too many questions for me, namely current form, in and out profiles/attitude, and ability. 

For me this is whether Brave Spartacus can run to anywhere near he did last time over fences. He should get his own way up front and anything that takes him on will be ruining both their chances – if he does dictate he will kick turning for home and that may be that. I had to pay at 7/2 to find out as that feels big enough considering the opposition and race set up. He is the best horse in the race, let’s see if he can confirm that. 

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Fairyinthewind…

Brendan Powell is on fire at the moment – 5/13, 7 places last 14 days. He is also 4/19, 7 places when teaming up with his son at the track in handicaps. This horse won well last time out and I cannot see the rise in the weights stopping her. The actual weight on her back is no problem either. It is simply whether she repeats her last run – if she does she wins for me. Barring accidents I see no reason why Miss Tenacious (who likes placing) should overturn the form. 7lbs is not enough to my eye, given Powell is probably worth that in the saddle against this inexperienced jockey and the selection is also open to improvement. 

Walden Prince’s last win was off 106 and races off 120 here. He PU last time in the race the selection won. He could bounce back but he has a bit to prove of this mark I think. That is a big weight rise and I do like to see evidence they can handle it before taking a price like 7/2. That PU is a bit off putting also. Noche De Reyes is interesting – but has had 500+ days off the track and I find it hard to back those types against race fit rivals. He could be smart in time and is certainly unexposed and handicapped to win this race pretty well I imagine. But, that break is enough for me – unless you are close to the yard you are guessing a bit. If he is decent then he could well be having a couple of sharpeners before some nice prizes/better races in the next couple of months. But, if he is race fit he should go close. 

3s felt big to me for the selection given the question over the opposition and her form, and that of the yard. If she puts it all in and runs like she did LTO she should go very close here indeed. 

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Shortlist…

Powell also runs Memphis Magic in the 5.20 Bath, 8/1 – I have backed him. I didn’t tip because it is an open enough race with a few lightly raced sorts in here, and it isn’t a very good race either. The horse is a maiden but caught the eye back on the flat last time. This step up could be the making of him, and with the trainer in such form, I had to have a nibble. He could just not be very good but 8s allowed me to take that chance. It is hard to make an overly compelling case for any horse in the race. 

Jim Boyle has a decent enough record at Southwell, 11/38, 16 places, and runs Empty The Tank here at 5/2, in the 3.10. That price is just about ok, and making the debut for the yard, could build on his win LTO. 

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SEPTEMBER TRAINERS

Chris Gordon got off the mark yesterday with a comfortable 4/1 winner at Goodwood, with two other runners for different trainers not running so well. Nonetheless a profit on the day. 

Today’s selections…

-4.50 Bath – Petrify (25/1 or under) 

-5.50 Bath – Mister Mayday – (8/1 or under) 

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Rae Guest Micro System – 

-3.30 Ling – Maid in a Horsebox (14/1 or under)*

*this angle looks at those horses yet to have a run in a handicap, including Maiden runners. He is 11/46, 23 places with horses yet to have a career run, 9/42 in Maiden races. When teaming up with Catlin he is 14/66, 29 places at the track. The ground is an unknown but at current prices is a qualifier and I have had a go. 

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Good Luck