Tip of the Day 27/08/15

No complaints with Titus Bolt yesterday. He got the run of the race and was able to dictate and for a moment looked to have them all at it. It was at that point I thought he may kick on but there wasn’t much there when asked. From the 4 micro system selections there were two winners at 7/2 and 13/2 which made it a decent enough afternoon on that front. 


There is NO Bet again today as I am struck with indecision with nothing is jumping out at me, having spent a good while staring at my notepad and going through various races. My note pad is full of ways in and possible horses but for one reason or another I cannot make up my mind whether to back any for 1 point win, or which one to select! The best of those are below for you to do with as you please. In order of how I considered them…

3.40 Stratford – Al Alfa looks to have a decent enough chance here for Hobbs who does well with his handicap chasers at the track. If he were 3/1 or 4/1 then maybe he would be a bet but 2/1 / 9/4 feels skinny enough. He comes here after a break, and has won fresh before. He has the class and likes to dominate from the front, which he should be able to do here. But, it also looks an open enough race and you could give a chance to most of them, as the market suggests. 

7.00 Sedgefield – EverSoMuch is interesting at 7/2, for a trainer with a decent enough record here with handicappers. 6/27,11 places. He won last time out but he is very inconsistent,needs plenty of cajoling and needs a pace collapse. He is unproven on Good to Firm also and there are a couple in here who you could make an equally compelling case for. I think he will get the pace, and I think he should be thereabouts, but I am struggling for all out confidence. 

Tim Easterby and Will Easterby are 3/4 when teaming up at Wolvs and as such Surround Sound catches the eye in the 6.15. However all wins C6 and he is 0/11 C5 and he also needs a pace collapse and plenty of luck in running as he will come right from the back. 

4.20 Southwell  – Cusheen Bridge 9/2 was considered, trainer 4/19, 6 places with handicap hurdlers here. However he needs every yard of this trip, with form over further, and I cannot see much pace in this. It could be run at a crawl and with a relatively short straight he may not have enough time to get going. That was the concern, albeit I expect him to run his race. 

Byrnes doesnt send many horses to Bellewstown – 8 in fact since 2009, 4 of them won. He has Top of The Town in the 6.50 in a handicap hurdle that may lack depth. He will run his race but it was a concern that he had a few tries in handicap hurdles without getting head in front and was then dropped back into a maiden to get off the mark. He ran in a decent Galway hurdle last time out, that has produced a few winners, and he will find this easier. He will run his race and you could just back him due to the trainer form in truth, over time backing his runners here will clearly work out as he appears to pick his races carefully. There is a well fancied unexposed Mullins horse as well, which is always a concern. He could have plenty in hand, or not. 

3.30 Muss..I also thought Tourtier may make a good go of leading this field all the way, but it is hard to know what that form amounted to last time, it is a weak looking race with poor animals in general, and a price below 3/1 again felt skinny enough. He could stack them up and kick for home and have them all in trouble.

So, a few bits and pieces there and I hope they all run well but for tipping purposed I am not as confident as I like to be on any of them, and there are just one too many doubts/niggles for each one. 


No micro angle bets today. 


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2 Responses

  1. Agree totally about Al Alfa we missed the price on that one!

    I also missed the early price on Aimhirgin Lass 7:10 Tipperary John Oxx doesn’t have the the quality of horses that he used to but he does well here at the track – 11-39 28% +17.63 and is horses are good form 3-10 in the past 14 days. The selection won with a bit in hand at Killernay last time and looks an improver on his handicap debut.

    Richard Fahey’s three year olds are profitable to follow at Musselburgh but his two three year olds in the 4:00 – Spring Offensive & Desire should run well with the stable in fine form but at the prices I can let them win.

    Always frustrating when you miss a winner or two but if the price isn’t right its best to leave alone as you wont win long term as you know betting under price.

    My only bet today is:

    2:40 – Stratford – Trainer Anthony Honeyball is 5-13 38% +6.41 at the course in the past five years, he is also 2-5in the past 14 days. Jockey Aiden Coleman also does well at the track with 24% winning strike rate. Suited by good ground and droip in trip?

    1. Good Luck in 2.40 – i have an aversion to betting in Novice Handicap chases, and C5 ones at that. Looks an open race with plenty of in form horses, but can see why you would back him at the prices. As you say trainer doesn’t mess around at the track, and he should run a decent race, open to plenty of improvement.

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