Tip of the Day: 26/08/15

Running Total (trial) : 38 bets / 10 wins / 19 places (inc wins) / +19.5 SP 

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4.30 Musselburgh

Titus Bolt – 1 point win – 6/1 (general) 

The way in…

Well a mixture really, but mainly Pace and his geegeez speed rating. I like finding front runners in general that I think may stay there, and even more so when they have an impressive speed figure compared to their rivals. His is 79, the next bets is 61 and with the rest in the low 50s and high 40s. There are no out and out front runners in here and Titus has been leading and/or tracking the pace. I hope Bartley just sends him to the front and plays catch me if you can. 

To my eye he has been getting outpaced on his last few starts over 12f and with assured stamina for this trip, the step up looks ideal. It is interesting that he now drops into a ratings band where he has won all his flat handicaps. He is 4/15, 7 places OR51-60 opposed to 0/11, 1 place OR61+. The jockey has won on his and he is 2/13, 4 places at the track, so no issues on that front. He also wont mind what the ground does with enough winning and placed form on soft/heavy over both codes if there is plenty of rain. He has also won in C3 on the flat and has a bit of star quality for this level, if putting it all together. Only Jim Goldie will know if today is the day – he is very shrewd 🙂 …

That leads me to the spanner in the works..he has another runner in here who is the fav – but it isn’t unknown for his more unfancied runners to win when he has a few in the race. Aleksander is 2/31 in his career and looks to need further to my eye. Now, they could well tell Titus to absolutely blast off in front here to make it a real test and set it up for him. He does appear to like a sound surface and he is 0/8, 0 places with juice, albeit I am guessing a bit as to what the weather does – there is meant to be rain in the area. He is handicapped to go well, is in some form, and drops into C6 here, so I can see why he is top of the market. But, he doesn’t like winning too often and if there is rain that won’t help his cause. I wouldn’t say he is a value price either. 

The rest are much of a muchness. Jan Smuts has yet to win below 16f although has placed a few times. He is also 1/32 when rated OR61+. Sergeant Pinks wins on the flat come when returning within 15 days usually, he is 0/9, 0 places 16-60 days rest, and I never know who seriously to take form from Ladies Amateur riders races, or amateur races in general, given jockeyship plays a major role in the result. But, he is in form at least. Vittachi is also in form and is 5/48 in career flat handicaps. You would like to think he needs more than his two most recent runs, and is 1/16 at the track. Clearly he needs a lot to go right. All race conditions look fine for him, and he wont mind rain. The rest look up against it. 

So, it is maybe open enough on paper but the speed rating, predicted pace angle (doesnt always go to plan), slight drop in the weights and step up in trip were enough for me to think 6/1 was fair enough, and worth paying to find out if he can lead all the way. If he runs to his best, I don’t think the others have the ability to get near him. 

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-Compton Heights was interesting in the 3.00, coming here in great form and with an impressive speed figure. He is up 9lbs for last win but is improving and is lightly raced for his age. Trainer/jockey are 4/16, 8 places here and he won’t be far away, albeit it looks a competitive sprint and a better race than his last win. 

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AUGUST TRAINERS 

4.40 Catt – Classic Villager 

8.25 Kempt – Cloud Seven 

FANSHAWE (AW Switchers) 

7.55 Kempt – Fresh Kingdom

8.25 Kempt – Landwade Lad 

Both have the main man on for Fanshawe here, and hopefully they run a good race. 

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Good Luck 

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Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

2 Comments

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  • Hi Josh…

    Great write up as usual Josh….interesting to note that Titus Bolt is only one of three in the field that has won over the flat in the last 12 months (other two are Geanie Mac and Sergeant Pink). What’s even more interesting is when TB scored here over 13f in October 2014 in a Class 3 contest he beat a certain Pressure Point who has since gone on to win a couple of decent Cl2 races over similar trips. 6/1 seems a very decent bet.

    A few stats for C Wall’s runner in the 8.25 at Kempton tonight for Cloud Seven (5/2 currently)…

    C Wall’s AW record:

    2015 AW record: 45 runners/10 winners/ 7.13 SP_PL/22% SR

    Kempton AW record: 230 runners/40 winners/53.83 SP_PL/17% SR

    Class 4 (Prize >6k): 147 runners/28 winners/ 0.68 SP_PL/19% SR

    Age (3yo): 397 runners/71 winners/ 68.92 SP_PL/18% SR

    With T Durcan riding: 131 runners/ 28 winners/ 38.42 SP_PL/ 21% SR

    Odds (runners between 5/2 to 4/1): 144 runners/ 32 winners/ -5.25 SP_PL/ 22% SR
    [Not protitable to SP but have a feeling with the 22% SR probably profitable to BF_PL]

    Distance (1m 3f): 28 runners/ 5 winners/ -5.02 SP_PL/18% SR

    Break (16-30 days): 276 runners/ 48 winners/ 13.26 SP_PL/17% SR

    So a pretty strong profile and the figures I would think are probably even better if using BF_PL.

    Fanshawe has a runner in the 8.25 as well and has more than a decent profile for the race too….but out of the 2 runners would have a preference for Cloud Seven.

    Best

    Martin

    Martin 2 years ago Reply


  • Land wade lad bolts in

    Ant 2 years ago Reply


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