I am posting now (9.13 pm, 18/08) so I can have a good look at York, and specifically the 1.55, tomorrow morning. Chancery made a mockery of his opposition today and he really has turned into a C3 bully, with ability to win a C2 if everything drops right. He will pay for a few more nights in the pub in the next couple of years when dropping into C3 again no doubt. I can’t believe he drifted to 4/1 given the rain was a bonus and there were questions over everything else. Anyway, that was 4 in a row which is a good feeling after the barren run. But, no rest here…
Running Total (trial) = 32 bets / 9 wins / 16 places (inc wins) = +20 points (1 point level stakes)
3.55 Ffos Las
Free Zone – 1 point win 6/1 (Skyb,Coral,Betf Sportsbook) 11/2 general (as of 9.13 pm, 18/08/15)
I started researching this decent enough looking sprint handicap wanting to find a reason to back Sir Billy Wright. My way in was the trainer/jockey combo which is 6/23, 10 places in handicaps at the track. They also run Black Dave later on the card as well.
As it happens, as I went through this race like I do with all sprint handicaps, and any race in general, I decided that at the prices Free Zone is the bet. SBW will probably hack up now and his price is fair enough.
Free Zone – well he is formerly high class. A class 2 winner and frequently placed in G3 and Listed races a few years ago. He is now 15lb below his highest winning mark of recent years and is no doubt handicapped to go well if putting best foot forward.
So, why do I think he is suddenly going to burst into life here? Well the trainer rarely comes to the track . He has only had two runners here, one won, the other placed. Kirby is also booked – it could be he is here for the Cumani horse earlier on in the card or one of his other rides, but that booking is no bad thing. This is the trainers only runner here and that is some trek if you are expecting a bad run.
There were some profile pointers that also caught the eye. Firstly all of his career wins have come with no headgear on. In handicaps he is 4/11, 5 places with no headgear on against 0/8, 1 place with headgear. This is his first race in 9 he will wear no headgear. Maybe he will appreciate that. Secondly he looks like a flat track horse. Infact his record on flat tracks (as defined by HorseRaceBase) he is 4/8, 5 places. On tracks with any undulations in he is 0/11, 1 place.
He has been running at decent top quality tracks. The Yorks, the Ascots, Haydock, Newmarket (July) – Races are much better at those tracks in general than at places like Ffos Las. Indeed when he runs at lesser quality tracks for want of a better phrase he does well with wins at Beverley, Catterick, Musselburgh, Thirsk, Yarmouth.
He is 1/1 when dropping into C4<£6k and is 3/4, 3 places when priced 6/1 or under. He is also 3/9, 5 places on Good to Soft which I think this ground could well be. The ground should not be an excuse regardless of if it is firmer or softer.
When I brought all of that lot together, and thought about it, I knew I would be sick if he hacks up at 6/1 – more sick than if he runs flat and Sir Billy Wright or another one wins. The horse has been running OK and he was actually leading at Newmarket a few runs ago well into the final furlong before the stiff finish caught him out. I am expecting a big run here.
Sir Billy Wright – what caught the eye about him was his superior speed rating on Gegeez and the fact he is in form. But that was a C5 race and I am not sure if it was a very good one. I didn’t come away from watching the replay thinking I had to back him. This drop to 5f back on turf may be the key to him but he does need to prove his class. He will run his race. Secret Asset is interesting and ticks a lot of profile boxes for race conditions but keeps placing or not running well and he is getting on now. I am not sure if he will have the speed for this drop back to 5f, although on old form it is the right move. The rest are a mix of exposed horses with pieces of form that would give them a chance and some that look completely out of form.
All in all nothing would totally surprise me in this race but if Free Zone, who is still only 6, could rediscover some of his old sparkle he would win this quite well. There is a lot in his favour and I had to have a go at that price.
8.10 Kempton is interesting. There is a qualifier for the Fanshawe micro system – Spirit Raiser – with Hayley Turner up. When they team up here trainer jockey are 7/31, 19 places. He looks sure to run a decent race to my eye.
There is also a qualifier for the Bin Suroor micro system as well, which is along the same lines of coming from a turf run LTO. The boys in blue are on fire and his Think Ahead looks sure to run his race, as the market suggests. Although I am not sure the drop back looks ideal.
9.10 Kempton – Laura B
I will be finding a bet or two in the 1.55 York tomorrow and will see if anything else catches the eye. This post should be up by 10am but I will be emailing out as well.