Tip of the Day: 18/08/15

I do like when a race goes exactly to plan and it was great to see SDS have them all at it turning for home. It was then just a question of whether the horse wanted to win and there was clearly nothing wrong with her attitude. For the moment, until she gets stronger, 5f looks her trip. I will look out for her next time as with another easy lead she could be dangerous although the odds could be prohibitive. That brought up the hat-trick and I will try and make it 4 in a row today. 

Running Total (trial) 31 bets / 8 wins / 15 places (inc wins) / +16 points (technically +15.958 – so excuse me rounding up ūüôā )¬†

 

4.00 Ripon 

Chancery 1 point win 7/2 (Bet365, PP, SJ, LadB,Betfair Sports) 3/1 general, being backed. (as of 08.57) 

I have changed my mind today and have a good feeling that the shortlist could do OK today. Hopefully I have made the right decision. 

The way in…¬†

Well David OMeara generally has a decent record at these Yorkshire tracks and Ripon is no different. 183 bets / 39 wins / 73 places  since 2009. When teaming up with Tudhope the figures are 82 bets / 24 wins / 38 places / +62 SP. 

Chancery is their only handicapper running here today. 

The horse…

Ignoring those stats above you could just make a case for the horse. He looks like a class dropper to me, and not one I was tracking. But, he is 3/5 when dropping into C3 or below and 3/5 when dropping to a mark of OR90 or below Рclearly linked to being able to drop into this level. He is also 1/4, 3 places at the track. 1/1 when 4/1 or under. 

So, there is lots in his favour. He has been running well enough at a higher class and drops back in trip as well which is no problem. There also could be some rain around and again if it changes to good to soft there will be no excuses there. We should get a run for our money and I expect he could go off shorter. 

The opposition..

Well there are not too many dangers in here. Most of these have something to prove. Puzzle Time has been running well but keeps on placing. He keeps running well but his last win was in C4. He will be thereabouts no doubt. Altharoos is 0/4, 0 places on undulating tracks and he has that to prove, looking like a flatter/conventional track bully. He is in form but is creeping up the weights and hopefully that is enough to stop him. Artful Prince has pieces of form that could see him run well but appears unfancied in the market. Banditry is unexposed and changes headgear again. Bell is only 3/31 at the track and on the balance of form I am happy to take on. He could run well but does have class etc to prove, which he may well do. 

***

The main concern is how the race is run. He is drawn wide but is a hold up horse so hopefully he gets a good position and isnt stuck out wide Рalthough in saying that he gets 1m4f no problem so that may not be the end of his chances. He will need s good pace to aim at over this trip. Hydrant and Save the Bees like to get on with it and hopefully they go at it early and set it up. 

***

Shortlist…

-Fashionata (6.40 Leic) was going to be the selection before Chancery came onto the scene and I have backed her. It is a 2yo maiden and she is unraced. Haggas is in cracking form and he is 3/11, 5 places with 2yo newcomers at the track. That was the way in, combined with the fact that most of these look ‘exposed’ in maidens and need to improve. Haggas/Bentley are 8/27, 11 places when teaming up so there is promise there. She is related to a few speedy types and quite a few who won at 2yo. She wont have to be a world beater to defeat this lot. The lack of ‘blue’ on oddschecker has put me off a bit as I was expecting her to be being backed. 7/2 is fair and I have had a dabble, but the market could well determine my fate.¬†

Rosy Ryan caught the eye in the 4.30 Ripon for a trainer in form (4/7, 5 places last 30 days) and Deluxe caught the eye in the 2.15 Kempton at a very nice price. Trainer is 4/21, 6 places with stable newcomers from other yards and is 2/6 at Kempton. +39 points profit to SP suggests these go in at decent prices. It is a small field race and a couple of fancied ones but he is unexposed and I wont resist something on at BFSP, just to see. 

***

AUGUST TRAINERS

4.15 Kempton – Widy Citi

4.45 Kempton Р Ttainted Love 

Positive reasons why they should both run their races and the two main jockeys for this trainer at the track are in the saddle. 

***

Good Luck. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Hi Josh…great post as usual..always very informative and the bonus was tip of the day coming home a winner..all the best John

    1. Thanks John. Yes always nice when they come in and great to put a mini run together on the back of 9 losers in a row, but that is how it goes. Happy enough with how the trial is progressing and would take a repeat of those figures every 31 bets or so I think.

  2. Good luck with your picks Josh – I’m already on all four (including the August trainers) from last night so hoping for a good result! Paddypower are offering money back as a free bet at Leicester tonight, so that would probably be the best place to back Fashionata.

  3. CHANCERY is my only bet today, felt quite bullish so had 1 and half points on and it drifted?/.. Remarkable really, i always have a look at your thoughts before i place my bets so it was good to see you fancied his chances to. Keep up the good work

    1. Good stuff Jimbo, yes I put an extra half on when he went to 4s, silly price in context of race and his actual chance, expected him to go shorter – and the rain would have helped if anything! Madness. Obliterated them.

    1. Got my eye firmly fixed on the first race tomorrow…but this bloody rain is a nightmare, so will put off looking properly until tomorrow. Will be trying my best!

  4. Boom!! For a Tuesday Josh – Brilliant write up and the horse bolted up – 4/1 an absolute bonus
    +£80 again today thx to Paddy Power
    4 in a row – Keep em comin !!! Thx Josh

    1. Cheers, yep I had to remind myself that I don’t bet in maidens on the whole for a reason, and so often market is key. Drifted all day and had that feeling when looking this morning, and was also more confident would definitely get a run for money from Chancery. Still had some on Fashionista but knew destiny before gates opened, which is never a nice feeling. That will teach me.

  5. 1:55 the key betting race due to the £25 no lose Skybet offer. I have it between Shore Step, Huntsmans Close and Dutch Materpiece but would welcome your thoughts Josh since you are currently red hot!! What do you think they have had plenty of rain as well

    1. Just completing Tip of Day for tomorrow and getting that out of the way now, I wont look until tomorrow. Had a quick look and it is a challenge that I will relish getting stuck into. Shore Step could turn into a cliff horse for me and not sure if drop back to 5f will help. I will have a good look but not until morning.

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