Tip of the Day: 17/08/15

I hope you had an enjoyable weekend. There is some great sport to look forward to this week and later today I will be looking to see if I can find any decent stats relating to handicaps at the Ebor meeting, which promises to be a superb few days of racing. 

For now, a trip to Chelmsford…

6.25 Chelm 

Falsify – 1 point win 10/3 (SkyB, BV, StanJ) 3/1 general. 

Another day bereft of statistical ways in (bar Kempton which I will get onto in a moment- lots of clashes with micro systems) has meant I have gone with a horse who I think will try and make all, and hopefully stay there. 

This is a poor race but this is the only horse doing something different. Having ran over 6f to date in her three lifetime starts she drops down to 5f, having shown speed to lead over 6f LTO. She gets the visor on for the first time and gets SDS in the saddle. I am hoping he tries and makes all here and gets them in trouble. It could be she just isn’t very good and fades again in the final furlong like LTO, but there was enough there to make me take a chance at 10/3. SDS is 1/13, 6 places for this trainer. Trainer is 3/17 at the track. The horse is unexposed and while clearly no world beater Cowell will not have got to the bottom of her yet and if the changes work she could have a bit in hand and be too good for this lot. There is plenty of speed in the family and we should get a good run for our money, at least for 4f or so. It is also a bit of guesswork as to how the horse will handle the track but that applies to most of them in this race. 

The opposition dont look a great bunch although there are some inform horses. Lucky Clover won a C6 race at Ffos Las and form there is always questionable. He is on a career high mark now and will have to improve again. He can lead, or track the pace and I am hoping the latter. This race, with the bend coming up sharply, could well be decided by the start. He will be thereabouts. Ruby Looker has an almighty break to overcome. Clearly if fully fit he is unexposed and could run a big race but that is a massive unknown and in general I dont like backing horses after such a lay off. Fine Judgement won well a couple of starts back leading from the front but was then very poor at Ffos Las lto. Maybe he doesn’t like the turf but he is in and out. Another who could run his race. Ohsosecret is unexposed at the trip but was only OK lto, but as an unexposed 3yo can never be truly discounted. The rest look to be up against it on recent form. 

So, this looks to be about the pace and whether SDS can blast off out in front and out ride his rivals. I think he can. The horse is doing a couple of things different (drop in trip/visor) that look interesting and she is unexposed. All in all, in what was a struggle to find a bet in a better race, this looks  to be a decent enough wager. 

***

Shortlist..

There are two races at Kempton where plenty of stats come together for a few horses and in the end I just knew I would end up selecting the wrong one to tip…

2.55

May Queen runs for August Trainer C Wall, who continues his great form. The horse is in form but is stepping up in class against some other unexposed horses.

Landwade Lad runs and qualifies under the Fanshawe micro system I researched last week, running here after running on turf LTO. He has a 30% SR with such runners and gets Tylicki on top – Trainer/Jockey 12/41, 20 places at the track with handicappers. 

The market suggests they both have an unexposed Bin Suroor horse to beat as well as a couple of others who are up there too. It looks open enough and I couldn’t make a compelling enough case for either of those above, although I may have a small dabble. 

4.55 

This is more interesting. The New Pharoah runs for Wall and is an August Qualifier. He also is making his handicap debut and the trainer is 6/13, 8 places with such runners at the track. 

Full of Speed is the second ‘qualifier’ for Fanshawe on the day and he is unexposed over this sort of trip and cannot be discounted. 

There is also a handicap debutant from Noseda which always catches the eye. He is 6/20, 10 places with such runners in the last year and 7/27, 11 places at the track. 

This looks an open and competitive race that is also lacking pace on paper. It could be slowly run and that could complicate matters further. Again, I couldn’t make a compelling enough case to tip any of the above, although the handicap debutant stats would make me more confident on the Chris Wall runner. 

Elswhere, Roger Varian is 3/6, 6 places with Handicap Debutants at Windsor and Bella Lulu looks sure to go well – albeit well found in the market. 

***

AUGUST TRAINERS 

In addition to those two from Wall above…

3.40 Thirsk – A Little Bit Dusty 

***

Have a great Day. 

As always, I always like to hear your thoughts and any fancies you may have for today.