Below are some stats for the handicaps at this week’s Ebor meeting. Clearly we are dealing with small sample sizes in most cases but they are still a useful pointer and should help narrow down the field when analysing any given handicap.
(as always my thanks go to Chris and his team behind HorseRaceBase, without which none of the below would be possible)
Handicaps (2009-)
Trainer Micro Profiles
Only three trainers have won more than 2 handicaps since 2009. Kevin Ryan, William Haggas and David O’Meara.
Kevin Ryan
- 5 + 6 f ONLY
- 12/1 or under
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 13 | 5 | 38.46 | 24.5 | 6 | 46.15 | 188.46 | 28.79 | 3.86 | 2.98 |
| 2014 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 2 | 40 | 280 | 17.57 | 1.16 | 4.08 |
| 2013 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 7 | 1 | 100 | 700 | 7.77 | 1.67 | 7.69 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -100 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| 2011 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1.5 | 2 | 100 | 75 | 1.38 | 3.36 | 2.63 |
| 2010 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 50 | 250 | 5.08 | 0.66 | 4 |
| 2009 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -100 | -2 | -2 | 0 |
To date the market has been a decent enough indicator with his runners over 12/1 – 0/12, 3 places. One will go in at some point no doubt. He is 0/7, 1 place with handicappers running 7f or further.
William Haggas
- 9/1 or under
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 13 | 4 | 30.77 | 19 | 5 | 38.46 | 146.15 | 24.43 | 2.22 | 1.91 |
| 2014 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 25 | 125 | 6.03 | 1.04 | 1.82 |
| 2013 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 50 | -100 | -2 | -0.06 | 0 |
| 2012 | 3 | 2 | 66.67 | 11 | 2 | 66.67 | 366.67 | 14.86 | 2.55 | 4.35 |
| 2011 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -100 | -2 | -2 | 0 |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -100 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| 2009 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 8 | 1 | 100 | 800 | 8.55 | 1.68 | 9.09 |
Haggas has targeted this meeting well in recent years, in both handicaps and non handicaps. He is 0/6, 0 places with runners priced over 9/1 to date, since 2008. 1 run in last 90 days are 0/4, 0 places.
David O’Meara
- 8/1 or under
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 12 | 3 | 25 | 12.5 | 6 | 50 | 104.17 | 14.47 | 3.38 | 1.92 |
| 2014 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 50 | -100 | -2 | 0.65 | 0 |
| 2013 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 12 | 3 | 60 | 240 | 14.11 | 2.15 | 3.13 |
| 2012 | 3 | 1 | 33.33 | 4.5 | 1 | 33.33 | 150 | 4.37 | -0.2 | 2.44 |
| 2011 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 100 | -100 | -1 | 1.77 | 0 |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -100 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
He is 1/20, 2 places with horses priced over 8/1 and they are generally hard to find to date. He is 3/10, 6 places in 3yo+ handicaps, when 8/1 or under
***
Handicaps By Age Restriction
2yo Only
Positives
- Easterby, M W : 5 bets / 2 wins / 3 places
- 6 trainers with 1 win each. Ryan, Houghton, Brittain, Fahey (1/14, 1 place) , Tinkler, Burke
Could Do Better
- Johnston, M: 12 bets / 0 wins / 1 place
- Caution as he had poor stats before a York meeting earlier in the season before banging in the winners. Also I believe he has changed his approach this year and has a lot more 2yo’s running/younger horses, and running well. I would be surprised if he didnt have a few 2yo’s go closre this year but we shall see.
***
3yo+
Positives
- O’Meara, D: 24 bets / 4 wins / 8 places
- Haggas, W J: 10 bets / 2 wins / 3 places
- Cumani, L M: 14 bets / 2 wins / 5 places
- Dods, M: 10 bets / 2 wins / 3 places
- Ryan, K A: 16 bets / 2 wins / 3 places
Could Do Better
- Suroor, Saeed Bin: 17 bets / 1 win / 1 place
- Johnston, M: 38 bets / 1 win / 8 places
- Fahey, R A: 41 bets / 1 win / 12 places
- Tate, T P: 10 bets / 0 wins / 0 places
- Easterby, M W: 10 bets / 0 wins / 2 places
- Goldie, J S: 11 bets / 0 wins / 2 places
***
3yo Only
Positives
- Haggas, W J: 7 bets / 2 wins / 2 places
- Ryan, K A: 13 bets / 2 wins / 6 places
Could Do Better
- Fahey, R A: 16 bets / 0 wins / 0 places
- Easterby, T D: 10 bets / 0 wins / 0 places
- Johnston, M: 16 bets / 0 wins / 1 place
***
4yo+
No trainer with more than 1 winner.
Of interest
- Weld, D K: 1 bet/ 1 win / 1 place
- Tompkins, M H: 4 bets / 1 win / 3 places
- Johnston, M: 7 bets / 1 win / 3 places
- Fahey, R A: 6 bets / 0 wins / 0 places
***
Overall Handicap Stats, All Races
Of Interest
- Fahey, RA: 77 bets / 2 wins / 13 places
- Ellison, B: 21 bets / 2 wins / 6 places
- Easterby, M W: 22 bets / 2 wins / 6 places
- Cumani, L M: 18 bets / 2 wins / 7 places
- Stoute, Sir Michael: 26 bets / 2 wins / 7 places
- Johnston, M: 73 bets / 2 wins / 13 places
- Palmer, Hugo: 4 bets /2 wins / 3 places
- Easterby, T D: 42 bets / 2 wins / 5 places
- Suroor, Saeed, Bin: 21 bets / 1 win / 2 places
- Bell, M L W: 15 bets / 0 wins / 3 places
- Beckett, R M: 11 bets / 0 wins / 1 place
- Tate, T P: 15 bets / 0 wins / 0 places
- Channon, M R: 18 bets / 0 wins / 5 places
- Goldie, J S: 16 bets / 0 wins / 2 places
- Balding, A M: 13 bets / 0 wins / 4 places
***
Track Last Time Out (all handicaps)
Of Interest
- Goodwood: 202 bets / 17 wins / 56 places
- Ascot: 164 bets / 12 wins / 37 places
- York: 102 bets / 6 wins / 17 places
- Galway: 13 bets / 4 wins / 7 places
- Ayr: 12 bets / 0 wins / 1 place
- Epsom: 12 bets / 0 wins / 1 place
- Newbury: 17 bets / 0 wins / 4 places
- Chester: 29 bets / 0 wins / 7 places
***
2 Comments
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Is Hugo Palmers stats correct in all hcp races 4 bet — 2 wins 3 places is my maths wrong or do you count the win bets as a place as well cheers thomas whatever the answer keep up the good work
Thomad 20/08/15 10:46 PM
Hi, yes I use stats from HorseRaceBase and they include the wins within the places. So, unless I state otherwise, all ‘place stats’ that I put up include the winners as well. Thanks for reading.
Josh Wright 21/08/15 6:36 AM
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