Backing horses that look like they want to win is normally a good start and arguably yesterday’s winner was the only one in the race with such an attitude. Thankfully the jockey read the post the rode the perfect race 🙂 Hopefully I can get up the hat-trick today…
Running Total (Trial): 30 bets / 7 wins / 14 places (inc wins) / +12.625 points.
Today is complicated by the weather. There is plenty of rain around everywhere it would appear and it is hard to know what the exact going will be in the evening fixtures at Catterick and Newmarket, having been officially Good to Firm at the time of writing. So, those courses are a no for today as there is just a bit too much guesswork at the moment.
Swashbuckling 1 point win 5/1 (bet365/stan james/coral) 9/2 – 4/1 general (being backed)
A weak looking maiden race and backing an unraced horse isnt my usual port of call, but there is enough here to go on to be confident of a decent run.
While researching Rae Guest the other day another trainer cropped up with horses that had 0 runs in a handicap/non handicap. I left the ‘handicap race’ setting out, to leave a set of stats with horses that had no run in a handicap or non handicap, essentially covering maiden runners and those making handicap debut.
Mr Wigam’s stats for such runners are, 14/1 and under, since 2010: 35 bets / 10 wins / 16 places / 28% win SR / +25 SP / +34 BFSP
His maiden runners in those figures: 12 bets / 4 wins / 7 places – all 4 wins with unraced horses.
He clearly doesn’t have a massive string and he rarely runs such unexposed horses. But, when he does they know their job and they rarely run a bad race. He has had 8 runners in the past month, 2 have won and 2 further horses have placed. So, from a limited number, they are running well. He is 1/4 at the track since 2009.
Well, the market is usually a good guide in this type of race and it suggests one of the top 3 is winning this. There are unraced horses in here clearly not expected to go well and there are horses with experience whose form is questionable.
Covenant is odds on but this is his 5th race and he hasn’t won yet. This is his fourth maiden. Now, a repeat of those runs could well be good enough, but the selection ‘could be anything’ and as such he may have to improve. He doesn’t look like he is improving and as such I am more than happy to take him on at that price.
Tartoor is clearly interesting on his second start and you would expect him to come on for that run. Dunlop has a decent enough course record but is 3/40 in the last month. He will be in the mix, and could well win, but again will need to improve.
The fav, and the selection, are by Ravens Pass and his offspring seem to get all ground types. If there is a deluge..his offspring’s form on soft and heavy is 71 bets / 11 wins / 24 places / 34% win and place SR. We will have to trust the trainer’s judgement and if the ground goes and he doesn’t think he will handle it I expect him to be pulled out. If he runs I can’t use ground as an excuse, but being an unraced horse it is of course an unknown, built into the price I think.
The rest look a mediocre bunch.
This is clearly a poor race and the selection could have been very well placed by a very shrewd trainer with such runners. I am as quietly confident as you can be that we should at least get a run for our money. The stats suggest we should. He is related to a few group winners and there is plenty of stamina in the family up to 10f.
7.35 Newmarket – Ocean Applause caught the eye due to the trainer’s recent form, and he is a last time out winner in what looks a poor race. But, he is a good to firm horse I think and while the rain has now stopped ( I live 15 mins away) I would want clarification on the going before backing him. If it hasnt got in I will probably have a nibble, although he is a character who is 3/40 odd on the turf.
De Bromhead is in form and is 5/17, 6 places when teaming up with Lynch at Tramore since 2009 in handicaps. His two handicappers there are of immediate interest. 7.25 Idontdalaay (3/1) and 7.55 Lady of Portlaige (10/1). These are awful quality races and the former looks most fancied. She is now 0/12 but is still unexposed and ran well after a long break last time. If building on that should run a decent enough race.
8.15 Catterick – Philba was very high on the shortlist but the ground is a real unknown at this stage in the day. If it goes soft I dont know if she will handle it or not and is around 5/2. I am in the same quandary with the selection but I was getting double the price. If she handles it then she could well hack up again and make 5/2 look a very good price indeed. The sires offspring actually have a decent enough record with cut -it may well make her even more of a good thing. The rest look fairly exposed in here and a repeat of that last run, from a low draw, would probably be enough.
3.35 Newcastle – Rae Guest has a handicap debutant – Ellas Honour. I have backed her as I will all such runners from now on. It would have been easy to make her a selection but it is a small field (questionable pace set up etc) and there are a few in here also stepping up in trip and open to improvement, that are well fancied. The ground is another unknown (2 non runners in race already). The trainer is 3/9 at the track with handicappers.
I forgot to write up a selection yesterday for Johnny G. Thankfully for you (not me!) he lost.
14/1 or under…
3.20 Newb – Qanan
4.50 Nott – Princessofthestars
6.00 Newm – Fever Few