A welcome return to the winners enclosure who found plenty when asked and is clearly progressing well. A minor irritation of a R4 deduction but still 2.25 points to add to the pot. 5/2 about a 6/4 shot is the way to do it.
Running Total (trial): 29 bets / 6 wins / 13 places (inc wins) / +8.25
Jebediah Shine 1.25 point win 7/2 (Coral, Betfred, ToteS) 3/1 (general)
Surprisingly for me Coral let me have a full 1 point on (no more though, £20 appears to be my max allowed on that one) but there is plenty around. The 0.25 extra points helps round the bank to a nice number! – and I think she is worth it.
In a day bereft of statistical ‘ways in’ , especially in race types/horses I want to be playing in, I have gone for a decent enough looking sprint handicap.
Jebediah shine won well last time after a slight break following a flat run, having previously chased home the progressive Midlander at Chester.
The only negative is if this run comes too quickly again, but I will trust OMeara that she is looking fine at home. If she does run badly that would be the natural excuse, and maybe after that she will be given longer as a matter of course, but I am happy to take that risk given the opposition and race set up.
She was very game last time out, unable to dominate she eyeballed a rival for a few furlongs and to the eye at least they went quick enough given gap to rest. She saw off that rival and while never headed showed a great attitude when a rival loomed up. Head bowed, ears back, she wanted to win. The draw is no concern for me in this race and she only has 5 horses on her inside. If she breaks on terms I suspect the jockey will want to get her out and bag that rail. She doesnt have to lead and I can see no excuse for how the race will pan out. I can’t see her being trapped wide. She is in form, clearly open to more progress, and unless she bounces, will be right in there at the end. We have a horse who wants to win to my eye and that counts for a lot.
The opposition all have a question or two to answer.
Penny Royale and The Whispe look to be the main danger and all three of these will have to flop badly for one of them not to win. Penny Royale has been running OK, but nothing more. She either leads it would appear, or falls out the stalls. We could well be about to be ‘Easterby’ed’ as if she is bumped out along the rail and breaks on terms we may well have a race on our hands. To my eye, if running on her merits last time out, she looked to be outpaced over 5f and it is no surprise they have tried 6f. She is dropping in class here, and that will help. But the selection is progressing. She will run her race no doubt, but does need more than on recent runs I think. Never discount a horse bouncing back to form with these wiley connections.
The Whispe just doesnt want to get her head in front it would seem. Her last two runs she has come under pressure when in the perfect position tracking a leader, but easy time has found very little. She runs out to the line, and will find a race at some point, but until getting her head back in front I am weary of backing her. She has the ability to win this if putting best foot forward, but that was enough to put me off.
The rest look up against it. Busy Bimbo is a C6 horse on all known evidence, 0/10, 3 places C5, and 0/18, Good to Firm. Adiator caught the eye back down to 5f having run over 6f the last few starts. A repeat of her reappearance run would see her go close here and I expect she may well out run her odds here. But, she is 0/5, 0 places on Good to Firm and may want it with a bit more give. The other two dont like winning and on all known form I couldn’t back them. Tweety Pie is 1/22, that win being the maiden, and she does like placing. Down in the handicap, and with a further 7lb off her back, that could well be enough, but I cant back a horse with winning stats such as that. She will no doubt run her race again, we shall see.
All in all we should get a run for our money if over her last run and she is progressing well enough. Hopefully she gets an easy enough lead on the front end and the jockey can save a bit for the end.
I will be backing both of Chris Gordon and Tom Cannon’s handicap hurdlers at Fontwell for 1/2 points, as I always do when they team up here with such runners. I have been following them for a while now. Fontwell/handicap hurdlers/16/1 or under = 2010- 70 bets / 18 wins / 33 places / +68 SP / +97 BFSP.
They run Morestead Screamer in 2.45 and Herecomesthetruth in the 3.45. The former looks to have a decent enough chance but has yet to win or place in a race so I didnt want to tip. He is unexposed and will win a race at this track at some point, it could be today although he has a Harry Fry hot pot to contend with and he is 3/5 at the track to date. The latter is 13yo and runs over hurdles for first time in years. He could run well in a very poor race.
That is all for today. Good Luck.