Tip of the Day 12/08/15

My mini drought continues, taking tip of the day’s losing run to 9 I believe. Both horses were well backed, the first one in particular, 9.5/1 (after R4) into 3/1. He was overpriced at a morning show of 11/1 and long term that approach pays, albeit they both didn’t run very well. There were 2 short priced winners in the blog write up, one of which covered my bets and if he had been 5/2 when posting he would have been tipped (as mentioned) as he was backed into 5/4 SP and won by 3 lengths. But, that doesnt help the profits for this daily feature. There were two 8/1 winners yesterday left on my notepad that I didn’t back, nor mention on here. The stars aligned for the Sir Mark Prescott winner at Lingfield as they did when Makin/Dalgleish teamed up for a winner at Carlisle. I talked myself out of the horses whereas the stats were strong enough – but then that it hindsight playing with the mind. Frustrating yes but proof to me that this approach will be successful long term if I can fine tune my decision making. 

I must repeat this is a trial and I would suggest it isn’t wise to bet your ‘normal’ stakes until we are at least in some decent profit. Paper trading is always advised but I never do that personally, and instead back smaller than I normally would with something new. When I started following Geegeez Stat of The Day (Chris is banging in the winners again and August already guaranteed to be in profit with weeks remaining) I started on £5 per point. That was back in 2012 and I am now up to £20 a point, and have been for 18 months or so I think, with those selections (the only other ‘tips’ I follow, outside of my own betting). It took me time to gain confidence in that approach, as it will take time for you to be confident in my approach. But, what you do with your money is up to you. It took me a while to get to the point where losing runs didn’t bother me emotionally or financially. I need to prove myself with this approach so caution is advised. I know many of you dip in and out, using what I write to help with your own analysis – agreeing sometimes with what i write, disagreeing at other times. 

Despite some disastrous efforts at the big festivals the blog is now +80.25 points up since Many Clouds winning for my first preview back last November. But, I do want to be less reliant on just finding the odd monster priced winner every few weeks, hence starting the Tip of The Day trial. So, with that in mind…

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Running Total (trial) 28 bets / 5 wins / 12 places (inc wins) / +6 points 

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8.10 Kempton 

New Strategy 1 point win 5/2 (general) 

5/2 is just about a fair price here and while I bang on about value (an even money shot can be value) I do find it hard to back anything under 5/2 / 9/4. 

There are some strong stats pointers here. 

Firstly, the trainer at Kempton. Just back everything. Every runner. That approach since 2009 – 316 bets / 98 wins / 197 places / +90.65 SP,  31% win SR

His handicappers in that time are: 123 bets / 36 wins / 65 places / +48 SP

Not bad. Now, this horse comes from the flat turf onto the all-weather. I had a quick look in HRB to see how he did with this type. So, his horses running on the AW having run on the turf LTO are…

2010-    119 bets / 35 wins / 65 places / +46 SP / 29.41% SR 

So, no problems on that front and that is a neat little micro angle in itself. Horses running in handicaps LTO are 25/87 from that sample above and those that won LTO are 9/20, 12 places +7.4 SP. 

There is plenty to go on here. This horse won last time out in the same grade and races prominently, which I prefer around Kempton. His dam won on polytrack so that should be no problem and we have those stats above to provide some comfort. Hopefully he keeps progressing and can add another win here. If not, I will probably start following that micro angle above and we should get our money back at some point in the future. 

The opposition are a fairly exposed bunch and they all have a question or two to answer. Atlantis Crossing looks a threat to my eye as he is a bit of a CD specialist (3/9, 6 places) and on old form is still very well handicapped. I think he will run a big race at around 8/1, but will hopefully be chasing the selection home. 

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AUGUST TRAINERS 

3.25 Salis –  Alkawn 

8.40 Kempt  – Coolcalmandcollected (many more stats for him, trainer at track, trainer/jockey combo at track, trainer form -arguably all now factored into price) 

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Unlike yesterday where I had notes galore there isn’t much of interest that I can see elsewhere.

Our old friend Clement runs again today in the 5.00 Salis. His hood was slow off yesterday and ran no sort of race. He is a CD winner here, and is back on firm with a decent jockey on for the level. Now, it is a no whips apprentice race, but he is the only one proven in all race conditions so far, against what looks a moderate bunch. He is moderate himself but I have had a small play at 6/1 to try and get back some losses on him. 

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That is all for today, hopefully I can get back in the winners enclosure.