6.30 Ffos Las
Dutch Falcon 1 point win 11/1 (WH) 10/1 (Bet365/PP/Tote S/Coral/Betfair S/Ladbrookes)
7.00 Ffos Las
Unison 1 point win 7/1 (BV/Lad/WH/Tote S/StanJames)
6.30 Ffos Las…
I am taking a risk here as an ‘old friend’ Clement runs here – the horse who should maybe have won at Lingfield for the blog on his last start. But, he is 1/11 on turf, that win was on Good to Firm, and I don’t know how he will like this slightly sodden turf. A repeat of that last run may be enough, and he has a long straight here to get going. Trainer is only 3/49 at track as well.
Dutch Falcon is just interesting and 11/1 is worth a punt, and I am pleased to see a line of blue on oddschecker and it looks like he could go off shorter than this.
The Way in…Well to start the trainer and jockey are 3/8, 5 places when teaming up in handicaps here and Dwyer has an decent overall record at the track. It doesn’t look like he comes all this way just for fun. He is the only runner at the track for the trainer and in my mind, if you wanted to get a run into a horse (been off 55 days) there are much easier tracks to get to and to send a horse for a run.
The Horse…to put it simply he is doing quite a few things differently here from recent runs, and as such are valid reasons to think we may see a better run. This is only the 8th run of the horses life, so he is still open to improvement. He had an opening handicap mark of 73 and in those 4 handicap runs hasnt done too well. 1 was in a C5 and the rest in decent enough C4 races. He drops into a poor quality C6 race here. His mark is also down to 57. He also takes a step down in trip having looked like the gas tank has emptied over further. Breeding suggests plenty of stamina but maybe not all of it has come through yet, or he hasnt fully developed. This trip could be perfect at this moment in time. He has also had 55 days off which catches the eye. Maybe a problem, maybe freshened up or they have tinkered with him and found the key.
Finally, the opposition are dire. The instant expert tab on Geegeez is awash with red with most of these having proved they find even C6 a struggle, and most having proved that they dont stay. There are a couple more 3yos in here that could improve and a few 5yos etc who might be better one day. Most of these dont win very often or dont like winning if recent form is anything to go by,and I think Muir has found a weak race.
The selection could just be disappointing and not very good, but with all of the above there is plenty to make me think 11/1 may underestimate his chance. I was happy to take the chance, and hope Clement doesnt upset the party, or another one of course. If he is to have much of a racing future in this game he has to be going close in a race like this imo.
Runs for one of our August trainers. The trainer/jockey are now 6/10, 7 places when teaming up at the track and have won for us here already this season. I am slightly concerned by Makin’s form (last 6 runners all unplaced, inc few fancied ones) but 7s was enough to take a chance.
Unison won this race last year and has no problem with race conditions, proven form with juice in the ground. The pace interested me – there isn’t much in here at all – and Unison has front run before. I would hope Drowne dictates this from the front and gets them all in trouble. He will keep galloping and we should get a run for our money at least.
The Opposition… I did think hard about this one as there are two fancied unexposed types in here and I may be asking too much for them both to be beaten. Man of Harlech has been disappointing and is running at the same trip again. It looks to me like he needs further and this wont be a strongly run race on paper, unless they change tactics. He needs to improve on his recent runs, rather than hope they are good enough to win here i think, and I cant see why he would necessarily. Taqneyya is the other danger and does take a step down in class, from C2 to C4. He also steps up in trip. Again the race may not be run to his strength and he also has to prove a liking for a softer surface. On only his 6th run of his life he does look more interesting than MoH to my eye at least. But, there are a couple of sound reasons there to take him on. Muraabit is also interesting making his first start for his new stable. His form has been over 10f, and on paper at least this drop down doesnt look sure to suit, unless they try and make all as well. He is entitled to run well if fully tuned up. Peak Storm is 0/6, 0 places in C4 to date and needs more. Miniskirt has been a bit disappointing, has only won at c5, and has to prove a liking for turf.
There are reasons to be hopeful of an improved showing from Unison, and if he drops out tamely then there will be alarm bells over the form of the yard. There are also reasons to take the others on,and although it may be asking too much for all these unexposed types to underperform, they would not be at Ffos Las if they were superstars, and 7/1 allows that chance.
Makin also runs Findhorn Magic in the 7.30 Ffos Las – he does look up against it on all known form and comes up against plenty of in form types. Of course it would be just my luck that he goes in, but on paper at least that would be a slight surprise.
When you are in a rut it is tempting to put up some short priced horses that you think will win – but that would go against most of my beliefs and indeed my approach to this game which has served me well enough. Value isn’t about strict odds caps – a 2/1 shot can be good value – but you do have to be right a lot more at that end of the market and in general I don’ like ‘tipping’ short priced favourites as anyone can do that…
With that said there are a handful of shorter priced horses who I think will go close today…
3.35 Lingfield – Memories Galore – he could well lead these all a merry dance from the front under the excellent Adam Kirby. The trainer is 4/10, 6 places in the last 30 days, the horse won well LTO, has the best speed figure by some way, is improving, and should lead if he wants to. The only question is whether he handles the track but he won at Wolvs LTO so no immediate reason to think he wont. Al lot of these have tried and failed at this class a few times and all in all, when looking last night, 5/2 was fair enough. I backed him at that price and it is no surprise to see him under 2/1 now. He could well be an ‘easy winner’ that i could have tipped to get back in the winners enclosure but rarely is it that easy, and at the prices available this morning, I wasnt going to be putting him up as a main bet.
Joe Fanning and Mark Johnston could have a double at Carlisle and Fanning may well make all on both. 4.20 they have Spirit of Wedza who has been disappointing but this is only his second try at the trip, having ran well over it LTO. I expect Fanning to try and dictate in what is generally another poor race. 11/4 is probably fair enough to find out, albeit the form of the horse has been a bit too questionable for tipping purposes and figures of 0/15, 7 places, temper some enthusiasm. But, having said that a repeat of his last run could be good enough here, especially if able to dictate.
The more likely winner, according to the market, is Mister Rockandroll in the 5.2, who is rather short now. He is just a galloper and without much obvious pace in race is another fanning may try and make all on. He will keep going and does try. However, 6/4 is short enough for me in poor quality race like this and there are 3 others with much better speed figures in here.
The final one of interest was Skidby Mill in the 2.00 Ling, but in the end I was just put off by the career high mark, 5lb above last win. Baker is back on and is now 2/4, 3 places when teaming up with Mongan at the track, all wins on this horse I think. She is a C6 animal so this drop back down looks positive as does the step back up in trip. I think she will run well and have had a nibble at 7s, albeit the niggle about the rating, (0/6, 2 places OR61+) is enough to temper all out confidence.
Good Luck with your bets