Tip of the Day: 11/08/15

6.30 Ffos Las 

Dutch Falcon 1 point win 11/1 (WH) 10/1 (Bet365/PP/Tote S/Coral/Betfair S/Ladbrookes)

***

7.00 Ffos Las 

Unison 1 point win 7/1 (BV/Lad/WH/Tote S/StanJames)

 

***

6.30 Ffos Las…

I am taking a risk here as an ‘old friend’ Clement runs here – the horse who should maybe have won at Lingfield for the blog on his last start. But, he is 1/11 on turf, that win was on Good to Firm, and I don’t know how he will like this slightly sodden turf. A repeat of that last run may be enough, and he has a long straight here to get going. Trainer is only 3/49 at track as well. 

Dutch Falcon is just interesting and 11/1 is worth a punt, and I am pleased to see a line of blue on oddschecker and it looks like he could go off shorter than this. 

The Way in…Well to start the trainer and jockey are 3/8, 5 places when teaming up in handicaps here and Dwyer has an decent overall record at the track. It doesn’t look like he comes all this way just for fun. He is the only runner at the track for the trainer and in my mind, if you wanted to get a run into a horse (been off 55 days) there are much easier tracks to get to and to send a horse for a run. 

The Horse…to put it simply he is doing quite a few things differently here from recent runs, and as such are valid reasons to think we may see a better run. This is only the 8th run of the horses life, so he is still open to improvement. He had an opening handicap mark of 73 and in those 4 handicap runs hasnt done too well. 1 was in a C5 and the rest in decent enough C4 races. He drops into a poor quality C6 race here. His mark is also down to 57. He also takes a step down in trip having looked like the gas tank has emptied over further. Breeding suggests plenty of stamina but maybe not all of it has come through yet, or he hasnt fully developed. This trip could be perfect at this moment in time. He has also had 55 days off which catches the eye. Maybe a problem, maybe freshened up or they have tinkered with him and found the key. 

Finally, the opposition are dire. The instant expert tab on Geegeez is awash with red with most of these having proved they find even C6 a struggle, and most having proved that they dont stay. There are a couple more 3yos in here that could improve and a few 5yos etc who might be better one day. Most of these dont win very often or dont like winning if recent form is anything to go by,and I think Muir has found a weak race. 

The selection could just be disappointing and not very good, but with all of the above there is plenty to make me think 11/1 may underestimate his chance. I was happy to take the chance, and hope Clement doesnt upset the party, or another one of course. If he is to have much of a racing future in this game he has to be going close in a race like this imo. 

***

Unison…

Runs for one of our August trainers. The trainer/jockey are now 6/10, 7 places when teaming up at the track and have won for us here already this season. I am slightly concerned by Makin’s form (last 6 runners all unplaced, inc few fancied ones) but 7s was enough to take a chance. 

Unison won this race last year and has no problem with race conditions, proven form with juice in the ground. The pace interested me – there isn’t much in here at all – and Unison has front run before. I would hope Drowne dictates this from the front and gets them all in trouble. He will keep galloping and we should get a run for our money at least. 

The Opposition… I did think hard about this one as there are two fancied unexposed types in here and I may be asking too much for them both to be beaten. Man of Harlech has been disappointing and is running at the same trip again. It looks to me like he needs further and this wont be a strongly run race on paper, unless they change tactics. He needs to improve on his recent runs, rather than hope they are good enough to win here i think, and I cant see why he would necessarily. Taqneyya is the other danger and does take a step down in class, from C2 to C4. He also steps up in trip. Again the race may not be run to his strength and he also has to prove a liking for a softer surface. On only his 6th run of his life he does look more interesting than MoH to my eye at least. But, there are a couple of sound reasons there to take him on. Muraabit is also interesting making his first start for his new stable. His form has been over 10f, and on paper at least this drop down doesnt look sure to suit, unless they try and make all as well. He is entitled to run well if fully tuned up. Peak Storm is 0/6, 0 places in C4 to date and needs more. Miniskirt has been a bit disappointing, has only won at c5, and has to prove a liking for turf. 

There are reasons to be hopeful of an improved showing from Unison, and if he drops out tamely then there will be alarm bells over the form of the yard. There are also reasons to take the others on,and although it may be asking too much for all these unexposed types to underperform, they would not be at Ffos Las if they were superstars, and 7/1 allows that chance. 

***

AUGUST TRAINER 

Makin also runs Findhorn Magic in the 7.30 Ffos Las – he does look up against it on all known form and comes up against plenty of in form types. Of course it would be just my luck that he goes in, but on paper at least that would be a slight surprise. 

***

Shortlist

When you are in a rut it is tempting to put up some short priced horses that you think will win – but that would go against most of my beliefs and indeed my approach to this game which has served me well enough. Value isn’t about strict odds caps – a 2/1 shot can be good value – but you do have to be right a lot more at that end of the market and in general I don’ like ‘tipping’ short priced favourites as anyone can do that…

With that said there are a handful of shorter priced horses who I think will go close today…

3.35 Lingfield – Memories Galore – he could well lead these all a merry dance from the front under the excellent Adam Kirby. The trainer is 4/10, 6 places in the last 30 days, the horse won well LTO, has the best speed figure by some way, is improving, and should lead if he wants to. The only question is whether he handles the track but he won at Wolvs LTO so no immediate reason to think he wont. Al lot of these have tried and failed at this class a few times and all in all, when looking last night, 5/2 was fair enough. I backed him at that price and it is no surprise to see him under 2/1 now. He could well be an ‘easy winner’ that i could have tipped to get back in the winners enclosure but rarely is it that easy, and at the prices available this morning, I wasnt going to be putting him up as a main bet. 

Joe Fanning and Mark Johnston could have a double at Carlisle and Fanning may well make all on both. 4.20 they have Spirit of Wedza who has been disappointing but this is only his second try at the trip, having ran well over it LTO. I expect Fanning to try and dictate in what is generally another poor race. 11/4 is probably fair enough to find out, albeit the form of the horse has been a bit too questionable for tipping purposes and figures of 0/15, 7 places, temper some enthusiasm. But, having said that a repeat of his last run could be good enough here, especially if able to dictate. 

The more likely winner, according to the market, is Mister Rockandroll in the 5.2, who is rather short now. He is just a galloper and without much obvious pace in race is another fanning may try and make all on. He will keep going and does try. However, 6/4 is short enough for me in poor quality race like this and there are 3 others with much better speed figures in here. 

The final one of interest was Skidby Mill in the 2.00 Ling, but in the end I was just put off by the career high mark, 5lb above last win. Baker is back on and is now 2/4, 3 places when teaming up with Mongan at the track, all wins on this horse I think. She is a C6 animal so this drop back down looks positive as does the step back up in trip. I think she will run well and have had a nibble at 7s, albeit the niggle about the rating, (0/6, 2 places OR61+) is enough to temper all out confidence.

***

Good Luck with your bets

 

 

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. 7.45 notting..only ten per cent …most interesting runner of the day in my books ..as for unison in the 7.00 ffos las …Peter Makins last season …not been one to remember so far so hopefuly he can have a winner …

    1. Cheers Harry, yes agree about Makin, form of yard a concern, but thoughts 7s worth the risk, we shall see!(hopefully he picks up form to end career, unless he is coasting) Good Luck with Only Ten Per Cent. Dutch Falcon well backed at least, hopefully a good sign (+R4 15p)

  2. Bad start to week , sincerely hope things pick up , so disappointing when both selections are the first to empty out . Confident things will pick up , may be worth putting something on the blog. regarding this poor run (for the newbies especislly ).Horses running as poorly really make you appreciate the good priced winners that’s for sure .

  3. Hi Josh….I’ve been following your blog on and off for the few weeks and have a couple of points that you might consider. Firstly the idea behind tip of the day is based upon Geegeez very successful Stat of the Day feature? I think when you first launched Tip of the Day you alluded to SotD?

    Almost 90%+ of the tips given in SotD are in the odds range of 6/1 to 5/2. I know this wasn’t the case when SotD was first launched but over the last 12 to 18 months this has been the case. I remember the rational given for solely focusing on horses within this odds range (5/2 to 6/1) was because the ROI/BF_PL were much better than on the longer priced SotD tips over time.

    Secondly the stats that are used in SotD are usually based on larger rather than smaller samples. To illustrate what I’m getting at, here is a simple example. If you tossed a coin 10 times and got 7 heads you wouldn’t be that surprised even though you would expect to get 5. However the fraction of heads would converge toward 50% as you increased the number of coin flips (100 flips, 1000 flips so on). With more and more flips its unlikely that you’ll get 70% coming up as heads. Getting 7 heads from 10 flips is unremarkable, but getting the same proportional imbalance in a 100 flips would start and make you think the coin was bias towards heads. Its the law of large numbers/samples….the results are more meaningful and a lot less likely to be skewed! Hope this makes sense!

    So in short….a couple of tweaks that could be used with tip of the day would be:

    1) Focus on horses in the range 5/2 and 6/1.

    2) Use larger samples for the stats and angles that you use.

    Any thoughts or further comments would be interesting to read.

    Best Martin

    1. Thanks for this Martin. Well i referenced SoTD in the sense of 1 tip a day, or aiming for that. Chris does have an almighty bank of micro systems and stats etc that I dont and i like to use the Geegeez reports as a way in. Stats should always be treated with caution and I never use them as stand alone. Of course the bigger the sample the better, but with trainer stats you will never get massive sample sizes and if they are based on behaviour (ie jockey booking, or track pref) that is ok – as long as it is one part of jigsaw when a small sample.

      Your odds point is valid enough. The big race previews wont change, as they have been fine outside of a few of the festivals but for a daily piece maybe that is the way to go. I do try and find horses I think are overpriced and that hopefully get backed into that range if they are not already – Dutch Falcon was effectively 9.5/1 after R4, backed into 3/1. That is the way to do it long term, he just wasnt very good on this occasion.

      I am just going through a run as well, and never wise to suddenly think my approach is wrong. I just need to work even harder, make sure I have covered as much as I can, and work on decision making – there are often a couple winners on my note pad each day that I leave for one reason or another, and I need to start picking them.

      thanks for comment, much appreciated.

      1. Hi Josh…thanks for your reply/comment. The comments made originally were suggested as tweaks to your approach when it comes to Tip of the Day and not a completely different approach. As you have said in your reply you are just going through a difficult run.

        Basing selections on stats in isolation I agree would be a risky approach but as a ‘way in’ its usually my starting point before looking at the form of the horse, the opposition and watching re-runs (of shortlisted horses). As regards your comment:

        ‘Of course the bigger the sample the better, but with trainer stats you will never get massive sample sizes…’

        All I would say that you can get significant sample sizes using the Horseracebase (HRB) profiling tools for trainers and jockeys. After this you can use the query tool to dig deeper (e.g What’s the trainers record when stepping up his runners in trip). Yes I would concede that this could take time to do, but the profiling tool for trainers and jockeys can be used surprisingly quickly with time.

        Anyway onwards and upwards….lets hope New Strategy does the business later this evening.

        Best

        Martin

        1. Yep I know what you mean with trainers etc and actually I don’t use the profiler tool enough for trainers so thanks for raising that point! I will make sure I get in the habit of using it more regularly. Don’t get me wrong I agree that bigger number the better, that was more a specific point to track record with handicappers say and with jocky bookings, some may not consider less than say 50 runners worthy of consideration whereas say a 10/20 over 5 years would interest me as a way in. But I always write stats I have used so readers can judge for themselves. Having said all that I do like robust numbers when backing a micro angle systematically. Anyway, thanks again and for the profiler point!

  4. I use stats every day and are a major part of my betting but only when combined with other factors …I never use stats that are from a limited amount of info . also like to have at least 5 seasons data ..3 winners out of 12 etc not worth a whole lot in the long run ..another point is strike rate I would much rather follow a system that has a decent strike rate even if its R.O.I is not as good …confidence is very important and nothing worse than missing a big priced winner especially if you have been on a long losing run ..if your strike rate is high and have a decent R.O.I your confidence is also a better for knowing even if you miss a day now and again it wont be long before you get a winner ..

    1. All valid points Harry. When I do use smaller samples they are always just part of the jigsaw, and never used as stand alone. And I will always highlight them so you can make up your own mind. Your confidence point is valid. The big race previews will always be dependent on a few decent priced winners as they are type of races they focus on (big field competitive handicaps) but as a daily tipping piece more regular winners would be welcome, and that generally means playing more near the top of the market.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.