Tip of the Day: 28/07/15

I think if we all went to visit Windsor, Southwell and Newton Abbot this morning we would find that the three horses I mentioned yesterday were all still running! I hate not getting a run for my money and the main selections are either winning or coming second, or dropping out the back of the tv. They all had a couple of things in common…namely none of them were backed, and the two on the shortlist drifted which told its own story, and they all came here in no form whatsoever. Having no form is ok in some circumstances (esp trainer change stats, and handicap debutants) but, as with not betting in too many 3yo only races, it may be prudent for me to focus more on horses that at least are in some kind of recent form. The Appleby runner looks like he needs stepping up to the Grand National trip, woefully outpaced over 1m to my eye in what was a very weak race – or he just isnt very good but I suspect the trainer will find a poor race or two on on the sand for him at some point. The main selection pulled like mad and was never in the race at all. There were no excuses for race conditions, or fitness or anything else. Just not very good on the day. Days like that happen and I don’t dwell on them for too long…moving on…

Running Total…

18 bets / 4 wins / 5 seconds / +10.5 points 

28/07/15

8.05 Worcester 

On The Bridge 4/1 (skybet, BV, Coral, Betfair Sports) 1 point win 

The Way In…

Jeremy Scott and Nick Schofield are 7/19, 9 places when teaming up in handicaps at Worcester and are a pair to keep onside. 

The Horse…

On The Bridge ticks all the boxes here and while he is not getting any younger he returned to some kind of form last time where two awful jumps near the end cost him any chance. He lost all momentum and while he may not have won he would have been a lot closer. He is 2/4 at the track and 1/3 over CD, 2/5 in this class band (class 3 <£10k to winner) and all wins have been when Schofield is on him – he gets back on today, having not been on LTO, and that is a big positive, taking over from a decent yet inexperienced pilot. He is on form and looks sure to run his race. 

The Opposition…

Well the two dangers are above him in the market. These are the two unexposed horses, the could be anything ‘well handicapped’ horses. Royale Django comes back to hurdles after chasing, which isnt something I like and he also comes here after 50+ days off. That is rarely a positive as it would suggest a problem. Having won two novice chases I do wonder why they revert back to hurdles, that seems very odd to me. But, he is unexposed in both spheres and clearly has ability. However, I am happy to take him on and if he is too good then so be it. Fort Worth is having the 5th start of his life but he has stamina to prove and class. His last run was after 3 months+ off the track so he could come on for that. In a fairly weak race he wont be too far away, but again, at the prices I am happy to take him on. 

I think those are the two to beat. 

Cut the Corner likes placing and has stamina to prove. A couple of questions to answer there. The rest come here either out of form, prefer chasing and a sterner test of stamina, class, high mark to overcome, or a combination of all of the above. I couldnt justify backing any of the others. 

So, all in all this one should not be dropping out the back of the TV unless there is a problem and he should be in contention jumping the last. 4/1 was just about fair enough for a horse with a decent chance here, up against horses that do have questions to answer, which a couple may do emphatically of course. 

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The Shortlist 

1st run in handicap…

Tony Martin is 2/6, 3 places with such runners at Galway (a meeting where he has a decent record). Heartbreak City runs in 8.20. 

Marco Botti is 14/50, 27 places with such runners at Wolverhampton – but for only +2.73 points profit. Go Packing Go (7/2) runs in the 2.20. 

Trainer Change 

Mark Johnston is 8/23, 13 places in the last 2 years with stable newcomers from other yards. He runs Zand at Goodwood in the 2.00, and he looks to be the pick of Fanning. He is a could be anything horse with his form abroad hard to weigh up I think. I will be looking at Goodwood Shortly. 

2yo First Time Out 

Fahey is 8/35, 12 places at Beverley, +11 points and runs Jordan Sport in the 2.45 Beverley. The market should guide no doubt, currently 3/1. 

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Good Luck