Tip of the Day: 27/07/15

Everything appears to be going well at the moment…just make sure you remember these winners when the next barren run comes along, which it will, as it always does! 🙂 

Running Total (trial): 17 bets / 4 wins / 5 seconds / +11.5 points 

***

7.00 Windsor

Perfect Alchemy 9/1 (bet365, BV, Boylesports) 8/1 general – 1 point win 

The Way In…

For the first time a selection from one of the few micro systems I have stored away. Some time ago you may remember that I sent out a free report (or blog post or both I forget) looking at some ’90 Day Trainers’ – trainers that do well with handicappers when having their first or seconds (or both) run in the past 90 days. 

Ralph Beckett was one of those trainers and his stats this year so far are 23 bets / 9 wins / 12 places / +23 points. Not bad. 

The rules: handicappers (both flat and all-weather), 1 run in last 90 days only, class 3,4,5, 12/1 or under. 

Perfect Alchemy qualifies today and as I back all of these runners blind I thought I may as well put this one up. Now, a word of warning. The market is usually a sound guide to this yard, so if he drifts, and/or goes beyond 12/1 then that will be £20 I have just temporarily loaned back to those good people the bookmakers. 

This isnt the only way in mind. In the last 30 days the trainer and jockey are 3/5, and 2/3 in the last 14 days. This would suggest that Beckett is using this 7lb claimer to good effect and is generally putting him on horses that he expects to run well. 

The Horse…

Well, if you use Geegeez Gold you will not fail to notice the speed figure. As I have said I dont know how these are derived (produced by a Dr Peter May who is well known in the ‘speed’ world) but a rating 102 against 50s and 60s is interesting, and a positive sign.

The horse also has a perfect profile for the race, proven on going, class (2/4), track (1/2), distance (3/9), field size (1/6). She is on the same mark as her last win but gets an extra 7lbs off her back here, from a jockey who looks decent given this stage of his career. (..if you ever curse a 7lb claimer for a loss have a word with yourself…young, inexperienced and they will make mistakes. I am quite prepared for that, and if you back a horse with such a jockey on in my opinion you should be too. It is the same for people that swear about Spencer, that really annoys me…but that is a topic for another day!) 

There is no other horse in the race that has wins across all of those factors, which is good. 

Now, the Pace is also interesting. This horse tracks it or can be held up. On recent runnings there is a lot of it in here. I can see 4 or 5 who have led twice or more in last 4 runs so it should be a well run race. Hopefully they all tire each other out. 

Now, why 9/1? That seems big to me. Well I think it is simply because of that last run. That was after a lengthy break, she drifted in the market, and faded quickly 1f from home suggesting that she wasnt fit. She comes here 19 days later which suggests that there wasnt a problem or anything to worry about. I would hope we see a better run today, but the market will guide.

The Opposition…

Clive Cox is 6/63 with handicap debutants in the last year – so you have to pick them carefully! Richard Hannon is 0/8, 2 places with handicap debutants at the track. So – in terms of the unexposed ones, there are reasons to take them on. One of them could be better than these of course but I am happy to take that chance.

The rest all have a question or two to answer. If it rains some more and comes up Soft then Heartsong will run a decent race as she usually does on that going (4/6, 5 places) although there are course, rest pattern and class concerns.

***

All in all I think we have an overpriced horse who I hope gets well supported in the market. It feels like we are going to get a decent run for our money here, and either way, that micro angle is one for you all to follow, as it has paid well over the last 5 years and shows no signs of stopping anytime soon.

*** 

The shortlist…

I nearly put up two here and I expect this horse to go close…

7.10 Southwell – Opportuna 8/1. This horse makes his debut for Mick Appleby who is 19/78, 36 places with horses he gets from other yards and is 8/31, 12 places with such runners at this track. The horse is american bred and will have been trained on the track at some point since being at the yard. He should handle it. This is a maiden handicap and one of the worse races you will see. If the trainer can make him run his race he will go very close here, and if he struggles in this race then he wont be having much of a career sadly. This looks a great opportunity for a horse who is still unexposed. The first run this season was after 6 months off, and the second came within 2 weeks of that. It is possible he bounced, or didnt like the track last time etc. His maiden form and some of the races from last year have produced plenty of winners, so there could be some ability there. We shall see, I have backed him at 8/1 to find out.

4.20 Newton Abbot – Tim Vaughan is 4/16, 5 places in the last year with his handicap debutants. He runs Micras here at he could make 7/2 look like an even money shot. I say that because this is another awfully poor race where every horse has major questions to answer. If this horse has any ability this race will not take much winning, and again 7/2 felt decent enough for me to see, in the context of this race and the opposition. Dickie Johnson is up, and he means business this season.

***

That is it, there was nothing else overly strong that caught my eye.

Good Luck.