Tip of the Day 21/07/15

Well well well. The ‘shortlist’ had a decent day again, 5 horses put up, 2 winners at 11/1 and 6/1, a 3rd at 11/2 and two lesser efforts. All bar one was 5/1 or over when put up. I am going to go through the shortlist and just have a look at the stats etc, but in general they have run well. Maybe it is best to just focus on those stats  and ignore the rest of the horses in the race etc! 🙂 Anyway, it is a positive that so many are running well and I just need to make a few more ‘official bets’.

Running Total: 12 bets / 2 wins / 4 seconds / +0.5 

It is pleasing that 50% of everything I have picked so far has been in the top 2, although I would now like to add a few more winners to that total…

4.30 Ffos Las

Lucy The Painter 11/2 (BetV, PP, William Hill – 5/1 general) 1 point win 

The way in…

The trainer is 7/20, 12 places in handicaps at the course since 2009, for +15 points profit. I was interested in that stat by itself ( a bit like the Beckett stat at Chepstow) however when teaming up with this jockey the stats are 5/9, 6 places since 2009. Clearly he is the go-to man when he has a live one. 

The horse…

To be honest stats like that above are enough to make the horse irrelevant to a point- those two will team up again here and I will no doubt be on. It is a micro angle to keep onside. 

However, this horse is unexposed and still in the ‘could be anything’ category (not a Frankel clearly, but you know what i mean!) She made a pleasing return at Salisbury on what could have been inadequate ground, and I would think that race was stronger than what you get at Ffos Las. I am not sure if she stayed over 7f last time and is doing something different from that run by dropping in trip. The 48 day break is a slight niggle but given position in the market, and how well she ran after a few months off on seasonal debut I don’t think fitness will be a concern. 

The opposition…

Well it doesn’t look a great race, one full of disappointing animals to date and those that are in form have been running in poor races. Agerzam is in form but steps up in trip and races at Bath are rarely overly strong. He does have back class in C4 level on the AW so he could follow up and will be thereabouts. Pettochside ran in a C4 at York lto and any horse coming from a track such as that to Ffos Las should be treated with caution. He ran well and clearly a big run here wouldnt be a total shock. Mad Endeavour is also in form and is fancied in the market to go well.

…So , it does look an open race but those trainer and trainer/jockey stats are strong and will pay over time, hopefully starting today…

***

The Shortlist…

-Keith Dalgleish continues in cracking form with his handicappers, 14/53, 25 places in last 30 days and 6/26, 12 places in last 14 days. He runs Neuf Des Coeurs in the 4.45. I have had a ‘small’ (ie 1/2 point)  interest as he is stepping up in trip having looked woefully outpaced in a slow run race LTO. I dont know if he will stay this far but he was interesting at 7/1 and I am playing with profits from yesterday’s shortlist where a few 1/2 points got a decent return. 

-Mark Johnston and Franny Norton have been in decent form when teaming up in handicaps, 7/21, 9 places last 2 weeks, 11/33, 16 places last 30 days. They run Trafalgar Rock in the 2.30 Ffos Las, his only handicapper at the track. He has a solid 20% SR here. This horse has been off the track for quite some time which was a bit off putting but he is no outsider. He has also been gelded. There are no out and out front runners in here, rather lots of ‘pace pushers’ and I hope that Franny makes all. I have had another small interest at 11/2. Given a few of the circumstances a shocker wouldnt be a surprise and neither would an all the way win. I cant think they are just sending this one horse here for the run, but we shall see. 

-6.10 Chelmsford is interesting from a Pace perspective. I think Excellent Aim is the only proper front runner in the race. The 90+ days break concerned me, it is an apprentice handicap, and he is a bit skinny at 10/3. If i have had a good day by this point i may have an ‘action bet’ (usually £5 for me) for fun, but at the moment I have nothing on. Given the break the market will be a decent guide no doubt and any late drift may be a concern. 

Mr Morrison runs a couple at Chelmford (4/7 in total at track, 3/5 in handicaps) in the 8.15 and 9.20. Hughes rides both which is interesting and they have both been well found in the market. Both are unexposed but have questions to answer and they are fairly big fields. Still, info there for you if you do end up looking at either race. No involvement for me I dont think but both are clearly expected to go well. 

That will do for today. 

Good Luck with whatever bets you have. 

Josh