Tip of the Day: 20/07/15

There will be no bet today. There are a few on my shortlist but I am struggling to be overly confident on any of them for ‘tipping purposes’. There is a lot of racing on today but most of it is dross with unpredictable animals…

Some thoughts for interest…

-Keith Reveley has been in good form the last two weeks (3/8, 4 places) and runs Hookergate Grammar in the 8.10 at Beverley. This horse takes a massive step up in trip by 4f. Clearly the trainer thinks this will suit but it is a massive unknown I didnt want to take a big chance on (Breeding isnt conclusive) – although he is near the top of the market so a big run would be no surprise in what looks a poor race. 

-Tina Jackson is 3/9, 5 places at Cartmel, and i think all wins with the same horse – Ardesia (5.25) – he is 11yo now and hasnt been in great form but his course record is very good, and the booking of England caught my eye as he rides this track well. Still, horses at that age dont win very often. 

-Maurice Barnes runs Toledo Gold again here in the 4.55, having won last time out, to enhance his stats for chasers at the track. He will lead again, and provided he doesnt bounce (second run after a long break), will run a big race at 4/1. I wanted to ‘tip’ him, but his career stats of 0/8, 0 places in class 3 put me off. Even a couple of places would have been good. In saying that, some of those were on the flat, some over hurdles, and 0/3, 0 places chases, although a few of those were novice handicaps. And, he hasnt run over fences here at C3 level. He should get an easy lead and that may negate any class issues but it is a niggle, whether he is good enough for this level. But, I have probably talked myself into a small bet, given he will have track position and I should get a run for my money, at least jumping the last. 

-King of the Celts runs in the 8.40 Beverley and is 3/8, 5 places at the track. He ran well last time at Pontefract for a long way, before being swamped near the end. The stiffer finish here may well be what he needs and returned to this track could go well. The danger is a Mark Johnston short prices fav who has a far superior speed figure. Arguably unlucky in a better race last time he will run a decent race – but does need to get his head in front. If he does fail I suspect King of the Celts wont be too far away. 

There were some other stats for trainers but the runners were mainly in 3yo only races and I dont want to play in those too often,. Marcus Tregoning is still in good form, 4/10, 6 places the last 2 weeks and runs Thames Knight in the 7.20 Wind. The trainer’s track record is poor, although this horse has run well here. Although he is a bit on the short side now – his speed figure is far superior so a big run will be no surprise. 

So, all in all, I hope a few of the above run well but there was nothing that I could confidently stake 1 point on. A lot of the shortlist horses, as well as the main selections, have been consistent and run their races so we shall see! This just means at some point I will have a couple of horses on one day. 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. Hi Josh – Thank you for the tentative selections and honest thoughts as to thier chances. Can see why you have links with Matt & Chris as you have the same realistic approach to this (sometimes) frustrating game.

    Many Thanks

    1. Thanks Bob.. yep that is a snap shot of the thoughts that go through my head, I think explaining that helps…. I was fortunate to stumble across Geegeez and nag-nag-nag (Gavin Priestley, am sure you know who he is) blogs about 7 years ago or so and without those I don’t know where I would be! I still learn from Chris’ Stat of the Day posts. Mindset is most important I think, and I am in a good place most of the time (occasionally I will lose discipline!) and very much have a long term view. And I don’t bet to make a living, which would be a different mind set again I think, but obviously I want (and am, touch wood) to be profitable over the stretch. All good fun.

  2. I’ve had a point on Toledo Gold @ 4’s and half point saver on Peckhamecko @ 10’s, hope Hughsie does not ruin the party, of course as we know anything can happen on mad Monday’s. Also had a nibble on and Homage.Been on a decent run of late but the moment you speak about your fancies they all run stinkers!!! If you aint in it you can’t win it. It’s all about the long term folks!!

    1. Yep don’t blame you Jim and I think I will have to join you for a full point, 4s is ok, although still concerned he may be outclassed by a couple of others. Connections will get a win out of Peckhamecko at some point no doubt, and it one to keep an eye on from a shrewd yard, especially if money arrives.
      Yes that is true – thankfully the majority of those I put up run ok, although a few have fallen out the back of the tv! Always the way, I have had a decent day yesterday, and last Sunday, (about +16 points across both days) and of course nothing was up here!! (mainly as I didn’t get round to look until lunchime etc) Always the way…but yes it is a long term game, and profit over winners. I know I will never have a greater than 25% win strike rate, and it usually fluctuates between 20%-25% – that is a lot of losers every now and then, and is all about mindset. I am confident in my approach over time and it has worked for me the last couple of years.

    2. Rather frustrating that they didn’t withdraw Toledo there after all the rain, very little evidence he likes cut. May not have made any difference anyway mind.

  3. well josh,i realise you didntput it down as a definate bet, but im really glad i read your blog about ardesia,got it at 11/1 for only fiver but hey a winners a winner good stuff.

    1. Superb William…that is the point if those ramblings, to indicate info that may help you find your own winners..backers of the 3rd may count themselves unlucky but that is racing. Yes I had a nibble at those odds..and I am glad you found some confidence that I clearly lacked! 🙂

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