There were many positives to take from yesterday…and one big negative, which was the run of the main selection. There was always a chance that could happen as highlighted and I used the market as a guide to see whether he was fancied. He was backed into 5/2 (backing 5/2 shots consistently at 7/2 will mean you do ok in the long term) and I was confident. It turns out he just isnt very good at the moment. The other horse of serious consideration was the Tate runner and he very nearly won – that would have been frustrating – but still would have resulted in a 1 point loss.
Henry Morgan won at 7/1 – and I must admit to having 1/2 a point on when he drifted to that price as that was too big in my opinion. He was 4s when I was looking at the race and in all honesty I dont know what I would have done if he were 7s then. The jockey did track what turned out to be a strong pace on the eye and with all horses being ridden some way out he stayed on the best, to win in a photo. I still wouldnt mind seeing him stepped up to 6f but he is going the right way and I suspect they will try and find another race for him there. If running over 5f he does take time to get going, a still finish and decent pace looking to be essential.
The horse at Chepstow should have won but gave the eventual winner a 5l+ head start by being very slow away. He lost by a head or so in the end. And the one at Leopardstown blew the start also and there was plenty of rain which he has yet to prove he handles. All in all it was an ‘evens’ day for me with the various bets I had placed across the blog horses, and an official 1 point loss on the day for the blog.
These stats are helping to narrow down on the right horses, many of which go of much shorter than when they are put up, which is a good sign.
Now…I try and cram as much relevant info as I can into these posts, to help you out. I have done the research and I may as well share what I find, rather than it remaining on my notepad. I also like to share my thinking so you can see how I have arrived at a selection. I will make the wrong call every now and then. But how you use this info is, as always, up to you. My hope is that some of you will take this ‘extra’ info for those that don’t make the final selection as a ‘way in’ to looking at a race yourself. I would not advise backing a horse that isnt the ‘tip of the day’ without looking further into the race. But that is up to you 🙂 I try and add value to my ramblings even if the main ‘Tip’ is a loser! The only winners I ever actively cheer are those that I put up in public as, believe it or not, the thought of others losing money is an awful feeling, but knowing others may have won is one of the best feelings in this game. (and if a Tip of the Day horse loses you know I have just lost £20 as well!)
Running Total: 10 bets / 2 wins / 3 seconds / +2.5 points
Bread 11/2 (general) 6/1 SkyBet – 1 point win
The way in…
This new trainer has made an impressive start, a bit like Mr Crisford although I doubt he has as nice horses. In the past month he is 4/8, 6 places with his handicappers.
The pace angle also interests me – He has been leading for quite some way in Maidens over 2f further – so this drop of 2f really does catch the eye..especially when you have booked SDS to ride. That was the final positive…this man must be chasing the jockey title now and as such will be begging his agent to put him on the best horse he can get on, in any race. That will be the aim most of the time but I suspect we may see him riding for even more trainers now, we shall see. He is a bloody brilliant rider and I suspect he is going to try and make all here – I hope he does.
Well it is best to ignore what he has done to date although he has been running with credit before it would appear his stamina has deserted him. Now, he could not be good enough. That is a chance you take with handicap debutants. However, there was plenty above for me to think 6/1 is a decent price. I think we will get a run for our money and this could well be a lenient mark. The draw may be a slight worry, if he was against the rail that would have been ideal – but there are no in form horses that look like they will blast away for the whole race (secret glance may lead near side for some of the way, but he has been disappointing) so I dont think that will be a problem.
What I like is that there are no stand out horses in here – no really inform, progressive runners. Every single one has something to prove and a lot have been out of form in handicaps. Moving Upwards is making his handicap debut for a trainer that does ok with such runners, but he has been really poor in maidens and that break would concern me.(or maybe he has had his wind done??!) As always in these 3yo races something could well step up but as i say they all have questions of one sort or another to answer.
All in all we should get a run for some of the race as he leads them along, hopefully he is both quick enough to get to the front and then good enough to stay there! The trainer form and jockey booking, combined with previous running style, and the fact he is open to improvement, were enough for me.
Elsewhere I did have a conundrum…
5.15 Newbury…Dangerous Age 9/2 – runs in an apprentice handicap having won at Bath in a normal handicap 3 days ago. The trainer and jockey are 2/5, 3 places in the last 2 weeks and 3/8, 5 places in the last 30 days. The rider is at the top of her game, 4/13, 7 places in last 30 days. This horse is in form, open to improvement on turf, and should put up a good fight. There are a few jockeys in here that dont win very often as well as a few horses with much to prove. The trainer is only 1/85 at the track but not a lot of poor quality racing takes place here (other than this race!) and I suspect he just doesnt have many decent horses in his yard good enough for the usual standard. Either way, there was enough there for me to back this one as well. I was just a bit uncomfortable ‘tipping’ in an apprentice handicap where the jockey, more so than the horse, may determine the result – although on recent form this horse has the best one on top. The horse also has to prove he gets 6f, and this is a very different track from Bath. The horse can be a bit moody as well, and can be slow away.
9.15 Hamilton…Mr Shanahan is 3/9, 4 places with handicap debutants in the last year so his runner in here catches the eye at 10/1. He has been very poor in maidens, but isnt stepping up or down in distance and the only change is the fact this is a handicap. He only ran a couple of weeks ago so it is hard to know if he will suddenly just dot up. The market suggests not and the trainer has brought a boat load over and it is hard to tell which ones are just here because there was space in the horsebox. It will be interesting to see how he goes.
9.05 Pontefract…Ellison and that man SDS have been doing well together in the last 30 days (5/17, 7 places in handicaps) so Sweet Missi catches the eye. But there were a few inform rivals here and she does have questions to answer. She blew the start on her last run so ignore that. If she were coming here based on her seasonal debut run she may be shorter in price. An interesting runner and my P/L figure for the day may decide if I have a little dart or not! That Ryan runner does look solid at a short price.
Finally…David Brown has another Hamilton runner with figures now 6/13, 10 places I think and he runs Munfallet – who won for a blog post last time out, making all. This is a juicy big field sprint handicap and I am about to get stuck into this race now..with a separate post to follow (9.46 am as I write) I will email that out if I find anything, it should be up by 12 at the latest.