No 25/1 shot to go to war with today but in the 7.40 Hamilton I like…
Supplicant 6/1 – 1.5 point win
There are not many trends and stats to go in here but I found it interesting that all 14 winners had RUN over at least 7f or further. 9/14 had not WON over further than 6f. This would make some kind of sense given this track has a stiff finish where you need both speed and clearly an extra bit of stamina near the end. True 7f horses may be staying on at the end but horses with a quicker turn of foot may have gone by then and equally true 6f horses may get outstayed near the end by those that have tried 7f (but without necessarily seeing it out all the way) – i think there is some logic in there somewhere!! Still having extra stamina is no bad thing and Tatlisu, Mass Rally, Shared Equity, and Tiger Jim have all won beyond 6f…
Just those stats (ignoring those to have won over 7f or further for now) would leave a shortlist of Meshardal (class/ability to prove, needs to step up), Colonal Mak (getting on, doesnt win very often, break a concern for me but has ability to win), Munfallet (backed when he won here before, big question over soft ground and another than needs to step up, unexposed though), Fast Shot (out of form, 0/9, 2 places C2 20k+, 1/22 16+ runners) and finally Supplicant…
Supplicant…well he is a but tricky to catch right it would appear but Fahey is 5/19, 7 places in this race and every one of his runners should be considered a threat of sorts. This was a high class horse as a youngster, winning a Group 2. About a year ago he was rated in the 100s – he is now OR89 and I am sure Tony Hamilton could have had the choice of the lot in here. He also doesnt like Good to Firm on what we know about him and, while having tried 7f, doesnt look like he truly stays that trip. For one reason or another you could make valid excuses for all of his runs this season. He ran ok last time when no gaps would appear (maybe he was reluctant to go through them, or he was taken behind horses for some unknown reason 🙂 ) and didnt look to be enjoying himself, a combination of ground and track maybe – but he did travel well for most of the way. Given the trainer’s record in this it would be no surprise if this had been the target for quite some time. This will be his second run in a visor and he seemed to respond ok to it LTO.
6s is short enough but fancied horses do well in this race and he has the back class to romp away with this, as well as plenty of other factors in his favour. He is clearly expected to go well today.
I found it hard to make a compelling case for the rest. A big run from Tatlisu would be no shock given he was second in this last year, however he doesnt come here in the same form. That man Fahey again though. The likes of Mass Rally, Confessional and Colonel Mak dont win very often at all and they are so hard to predict. If one of them popped in I wouldnt be scratching my head as the ability is in all of them somewhere, but they are not getting any younger and as I say it is near impossible to know when today is their day. Artic Feeling doesnt have the class on form shown to date (0/10 C2 20k+). Another Wise Kid is 0/14 in 6f handicaps, bets form at 5f and no wins above C3 in handicaps.
And there are a few unexposed horses that need to step up, which of course they could do. Munfallet is in that category, but as I say the ground is a concern and I dont know if he is up to this level. Poyle Vinnie needs to step up as does Shared Equity (looks like he may need further with a few wins at 7f, and keeps hitting the door at C3 level) and Tiger Jim who can be given a chance. I won on him the last day where the jockey switched him right across the track to storm up the rail – he looked to be on the best part of the track there. He is a hold up horse who also gets 7f and I wonder if he may leave his challenge too late. However, based on that last win and the fact he is unexposed he deserves his chance at the top of the market. Goldie is 0/8, 3 places in the race. Eccleston is just hard to predict. He will like the ground and changes headgear again but he also needs to prove his class.
Boy in the Bar is unexposed for Fahey but I am sure Hamilton could have ridden him (he did LTO) and while trusting jockeys can be a flawed approach, i think this is a sign. In any case, he does have decent placed form but is another who needs to step up, which he may just do given his profile. He is the same price as Supplicant and I preferred to go with him – we shall see if I get that right. That run behind Tiger Jim was just a bit too poor for my liking though as I dont think there was an excuse.
The interesting one at 66/1 is Addictive Dream…now, he isnt going to win, but I have backed him for small change to place in the top 4 at decent odds. It is a stab in the dark but he is 1/8, 6 places over 6f. He has been running over 5f for ages but this is more his trip and there are bits a pieces of form to suggest he could grab a place. I couldn’t resist anyway!
PACE…well there doesnt appear to be loads here but i have learnt from experience this season that in these races that can mean sod all as there are always a few that will get on with it, especially if today isnt their day. Munfallet likes to lead but may not be quick enough, although he will give it a good go. If he is improving and he handles the ground, then he will out run his odds from the front. Supplicant can track the pace and race handily so I have no concerns on that front. Those right out the back may struggle however as on paper at least, I cant see a pace collapse as such.
A race with a fairly open feel, as all these types are, but hopefully we have a live one to go to war with