It is nearly June and I am always looking out for trainers who perform well during a particular month with their handicappers. They must be consistent over the last 5 years and their record must be superior to all other months. This would suggest a deliberate strategy of getting their horses primed for a certain period. The month of June would possibly suggest that this trainer’s horses are fit but not necessarily over-raced, as well as being well placed.
I have had mixed success with this approach (although you never lose too much when it goes wrong) and while I wouldn’t advise backing all of their horses blind, it is useful information to keep onside in the battle against the book makers – and the battle against other punters 🙂 – we cant all win!
Rules
- Month: June Only
- Trainer: Midgley, P T
- Flat Turf Handicaps Only
- 12/1 or under
Results
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 138 | 32 | 23.19 | 57.11 | 63 | 45.65 | 81.6 | 59.13 | 23.79 | 1.5 |
| 2014 | 18 | 6 | 33.33 | 12.75 | 10 | 55.56 | 16.41 | 91.14 | 4.61 | 1.91 |
| 2013 | 20 | 5 | 25 | 19.5 | 10 | 50 | 22.33 | 111.63 | 10.53 | 1.89 |
| 2012 | 34 | 9 | 26.47 | 13.63 | 17 | 50 | 22.87 | 67.27 | 6.25 | 1.54 |
| 2011 | 39 | 7 | 17.95 | 3.75 | 15 | 38.46 | 7.23 | 18.53 | 0.55 | 1.23 |
| 2010 | 27 | 5 | 18.52 | 7.48 | 11 | 40.74 | 12.77 | 47.3 | 1.86 | 1.24 |
Pretty solid and consistent stats. I have tried to push the strike rate up and remove some losers in a logical way but I cannot find anything. Days since last run, placing last time out, age restrictions (3yo only races for example), class, distance etc are all fairly consistent and/or the numbers are so small I cannot justify excluding them. His place strike rate is decent too.
I would be cautious of his runners at Haydock, where he is 0/8, and Newcastle 0/6, but they are not strong numbers on which to make a betting decision.
He is 2/80, 15 places with horses priced over 12/1. The market is a decent guide as to the chances of his runners.
Coincidentally I read some betting advice from a respected Value tipster, that I received in my inbox. One of the points was that you should not follow systems with an odds cap. What a load of rubbish – in my humble opinion. By all means, if you think 2/80 are good stats to back his horses bigger than 12/1 by all means go ahead. How, especially with trainer based systems, the market cannot be a decent guide, I have no idea. But, maybe that is just me. Now he will have winners priced over 12/1 and a few will place, but it doesnt happen very often, they are hard to find, and will lose you money long term. (the rest of the advice from this Harvard Graduate was very good mind, and he no doubt makes more money than I do, I just disagreed with that point :))
Here is his record during the other 8 months when he has runners on the turf…
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | Lay(BF) | P/L(Plc) | Lay(Plc) | MxOdd | A/E |
| 598 | 68 | 11.37 | -80.6 | 208 | 34.78 | -12.71 | -2.13 | -40.91 | -5.48 | -32.62 | 13 | 0.82 |
(I may occasionally highlight any qualifiers but not systematically. I have said it before, but getting a HorseRaceBase account for £10 a month is one of the best investments you could make in my opinion, if you like stats, systems etc etc. Qualifiers for the next day are usually up by 7pm the night before. And they have no affiliate scheme so hopefully you can trust my motives!)
****
Some of my bets today…
As well as HorseRaceBase you all know that Geegeez Gold is the other piece of kit that I couldn’t do without. I have never been an enthusiastic user of Speed ratings, but Matt has got some pretty good ones on his racecards and they are interesting. Anyway, I have paid for them so I should probably use them! As you know I like finding front runners that may lead all the way and I am starting to find my feet again this flat season. So, I have started to play around with finding those that are ahead on speed ratings and look like they could dominate. I backed King of Paradise on that basis at Hamilton the other day and he romped home at 10/1. There were two others at 9/1 and 5/1 as well that won – I did think they may lead, but as it happened the jockeys knew more than I did as there was loads of pace in the race that I didnt spot (still a hard game) They both tracked it and were never further back than mid division, grinding out victories in the final furlong as they passed tiring rivals.
With that said, there are a few today that qualify on my ‘rules’ above. I must stress these are not ‘official bets’ to be recorded in the blogs official results as I have not looked at the races in much depth. I clicked on the Instant Expert tab to ensure they were suited to today’s conditions, checked their speed rating and that they would lead, or be up with the pace (with no excuse). I am playing with smaller stakes than I usually do and we will see how this develops…
- 5.25 Newcastle – Lazy Sioux 5/1
- 8.50 Haydock – Craggaknock 5/1
Two more of interest, that won’t necessarily lead but wont have an excuse. The latter will be held up in what looks like a race with loads of pace in it, which should be ideal. The former will track the pace I think – the only concern is if there is any rain, he needs Good to Firm I think
- 3.45 Newcastle Long Shadow 5/1
- 7.45 Haydock Muqarred 9/4 (was 10/3)
***
A quick moan…
It will be interesting to see how they get on. Please don’t moan if they all lose. One reader made a comment a couple of days ago that irked me, but that is life. (at least he was polite) The point of my blog is to make profits yes, but also to provide information and highlight my own approach that some of you may find interesting and that may help your betting. (i am always interested in what works for you too) I bet to make profit and have fun, I don’t bet to find as many winners as I can. If you back anything I put up and can’t handle losing, this is probably the wrong blog for you 🙂 This blog has had long losing runs with ‘official’ bets, and it will in the future, but it has also found two 33/1 winners and nearly a 40/1 winner, as well as various others. I dont ‘tip’. I will never just throw horses out there without telling you why I like them. The blog is in decent profit since I started ‘advising’ stakes so it is up to you. I know most of you get that, so thanks, but for those of you who don’t believe I am blogging for good reasons, or that I genuinely want to make profits for readers (i back everything i advise with my own money) then please don’t bother reading the blog again. And I am still learning, as we all are. My approach to Aintree was wrong, and parts of Cheltenham. I don’t have all the answers, and still make mistakes. And I am very self critical of my own performance, especially when a horse bolts up that I didnt consider! Cheers.
***
Josh
P.S I welcome comments and constructive/positive/negative (polite) feedback. I just don’t like the ‘you haven’t given me a winner today, you are useless’ type comments 🙂
21 Responses
Cheers Josh – Plenty of rain about in Newcastle – Temper your bets accordingly – best of luck
Cheers Joe, very useful. I will, that may do for Long Shadow, i did wonder why he wasnt shorter and that would make sense. But he may get on ok, we shall see.
Hi Josh
always enjoy reading your blog and realise its up to me if I bet on your advise or not _I think you have to be an adult to place a bet but does that make you grown up?
I used to be involved with a sponsored race day at Fontwell and one year tipped the first 6 winners to the invited guests -the 7th lost and all I got was moans and groans + one royal ascot tipped them a 66/1 winner-small thanks but not one drink !
You just have to put it down to the joys of dealing with the great British public.
Cheers Pete
Thanks Pete – blimey, what an ungrateful bunch! Sadly they probably put all their winnings from the first 6 races onto the 7th!
Dont get me wrong, I want people to have confidence when they do follow me in. That is why I try and be as thorough as possible when advising a bet, to provide enough info to help make a decision, and your own analysis – and by keeping records of all advised bets – I do want to the blog to be profitable (and it is so far) for my own bank balance too!
All the best
Josh
Hi Josh
Some negative views . I like your angles and stats. We are all in it to make a profit lage or small. i am a great follower of stats and use them to good effect. Its a lot harder with the way the weather is now. How about giving a e/w bet using your stats. Keep upthe good work.
S R Smith (rossendale punters club)
Cheers Steven, yes it is a bit of a nightmare when the weather is so unpredictable. I do normally like a poke on a horse that is 10/1+ but I couldn’t find anything today, and in any case I dont have time today to look at anything more in depth. Hopefully there are some decent EW bets tomorrow.
Hi Josh
I am not often moved to contribute my opinions positive or otherwise but I think the information you freely provide is quite incredible. I subscribe to many (free) horse racing information sources and find that your contribution is by far the most informative, particularly regarding statistical analysis. Your guidance re the use of Horseracebase has been invaluable.
Keep up the good work and ignore any dissenting voices.
Hi Josh,
Good to see Joe Fanning back in the saddle today after the fall where he got kicked in the stomach. Remember a short while back you said you’d be disappointed if you didn’t make 50 points this season from his front runners – any chance of applying your pace prediction skills on here to some of his runners in future please ?
Cheers
Kevin
Hi Kevin, yes of course, there will be plenty of his no doubt that are lone front runners as the season progresses and we shall see how they get on! And whether I can make a decent profit, as he did provide me with a few decent winners last season.
Hi Josh,You are always learning with horse racing.So many factors come into play that can and does make a difference how a horse performs.So keep up the good work.If anyone out there thinks there is a 100% perfect strategy then please share it so we can all get rich quick!But it aint gonna happen.So for those who moan please get real.There will be losing runs and winners too.
Paul
Josh, We have spoken on here before about how much I appreciate your analysis and to be honest with you cant be without it. I have made steady but decent profit off of your good self and I will always appreciate any angles and systems that you put up or email and like Ray says above IGNORE all the dessenting voices as it’s not as if you put your hand in their pockets, take some cash out and actually bet for them is it!!!!!!!! Gambling is about winning AND Losing if you cant handle the losing part you are in the wrong business. Keep em coming Josh mate and THANK YOU.
I think that it is wrong for anyone to have a pop at someone who is giving free information and opinions. If you disagree with the opinions stop reading them. I don’t always back your choices because I prefer to make my own mind up and then the only person to blame is me. I have, however, found new angles to exploit by reading your posts. You can never stop learning in this game and being able to read free information and opinions is an important part of the learning process so thanks for sharing your thoughts.
hi josh,totally agree with your comments re value .i was with this paticular gentleman for a year and although he got the (very rare) 50/1 and 33/1 winners overall i ended up losing to level stakes.i firmly beleive your methods are correct and that your approach is to be highly recommended
Some people will never win money no matter what…your information is always spot on and I use it with my own information all the time ..keep up the good work Josh..
your I always follow your advice and it comes up time and again many thanks
many thanks Josh your advice is nearly always spot on
Having a degree and sending out constant emails about how good you are is some bs. I’d rather not back that certain tipster again lol you dont always get it right Josh but the blog is free and a good read, i don’t always back what you put up but i’m sure that’s part of the idea? Keep up the good work
Yes you have hit the nail on the head there. What you do with the info is up to you, and I try and provide enough so you can make a decision, or just read what i write for interest. I take the attitude that everyone backs ‘advised’ bets as that means I am more thorough – there is a certain joy when picking a winner knowing others are on, but equally it makes the losers harder. But it is all fun and games.
Win, lose or draw Josh, many thanks for sharing your thoughts
Further to Josh highlighting Paul Midgely in June, he won the big race at York today with Monsieur Joe at 9/1
Hi Josh,
Of course like most of us I expect I only ‘noticed’ Monsieur Joe was trained by Midgley after the event. Even so due warning that he is coming into form as you predicted.
Hugh