UPDATE: Well the market spoke although in truth i would have taken 14/1 last night. Clearly he wasnt good enough and not in same class as the leader who was open to improvement and duly obliged . Of course profile horses dont win every time they run in ‘their conditions’ but they are usually very profitable to follow over a few runs and I will watch for interest next time he appears at Southwell, hopefully against more exposed types. The winner looked to win with any amount in hand and I dont think I would want to oppose next time out at the track.
Well it remains quiet on the Pace front so I thought I would just highlight a ‘profile’ bet I am having on Tuesday.
Kingscombe 12/1 Coral 9/1 Bet365 1 point win
Unfortunately Coral would only let me have £2.10 on the nose. A useless useless bookmaker. As such I had to put the rest on with Bet365 at 9/1, which i still think is too big.
He is a profile horse and he will win many more times at this track and he will win me money long term. In a way I approach profile horses much like mini systems. While I have undertaken some analysis of the others I couldnt ignore his price. It should be clear to anyone with a horseracebase account why i had to back him.
He is 6/8 at Southwell, including 1/2 over the distance and 1/1 over course and distance. Robert Havlin is 4/7 on him. He is 3/5 in C5 and has won at a higher class. He is 3/7 returning 8-15 days. All in all a rather solid profile and a clear preference for this track. All of his career wins have been here and he has only managed 1 place from his 8 runs at the other all-weather venues.
So, why so big. Well I suspect many are put off by his handicap mark. His last win was here of a mark of 70 and he hasnt managed to win above that. However he hasnt ran in his favoured conditions from such a mark and at the prices I am happy to take a chance. He is also up against a few unexposed types but I couldnt really make a case for any of the others.
Samtu is 0/15 and places a lot. It looks like this step up in trip will be right up his street and if his stamina lasts his consistency will see him go close. But at 5/2 I am happy to take this serial loser on. Tomorrow could be the day but I wont be annoyed that I havent backed him. Lexington Bay has yet to win beyond 1m6f, from 12 tries. He has placed a couple of times and there doesnt appear to be loads of pace here so maybe he will go closer tomorrow. layline is 4/43 on the AW and is 0/8 at the track. He has placed 4 times but I am happy to take on such an animal who finds winning hard. Katie Gale has to be feared because of connections. She is unexposed and will likely build on her last run. She will have to mind and is 0/5 in class 5. A case could be made but not one I would back until seeing a bit more at this level. Rockofages is interesting but is another who is yet to win above class 6, and he has had 5 attempts to do so. He is 1/4 over CD and w/p 3 times in total so he shouldnt be totally dismissed. Marzovian is 4/42 and has yet to win beyond 7f. At 66/1 I dont think he will be winning.
So, a fairly weak race and all of these have something to prove. All in all however the profile horse has a great chance on paper in conditions he relishes. Yes something could be better than him but at 12/1 or 9/1 I was happy to take a chance. He always tries here and we should get a good run for our money.