NO RECOMMENDED BETS
I am in a strange position for a Saturday of being unable to advise anything to bet on so instead I will give you a few of my thoughts on races and where my money is going. Quite simply I cannot make a strong enough case for a selection and advise using anything you find interesting below to help with your own analysis. Of course you probably, and quite rightly, do that with most of my ramblings anyway!
I am in an indifferent mood. Firstly, and after long enough, my service OneTrackTrainers is starting to fire. A 7/1 winner today and an 11/1 winner yesterday has made it a decent couple of days and 2015 is now 9/34 +19 points. However, it did hit a low of -34 points but those that stuck with it are starting to see some dividends and I expect it to continue. The quicker it can get into profit the better but it was a rather sluggish start.
On the other hand Friday was full of indecision on my part. Horses I thought would run well and whose price I liked were scrapped as I changed my mind a couple of times. Of course they went on to win. But, that is racing, and you always question yourself after you have seen the horses run!
As the market would suggest, bar Double Ross, you could make a case for every horse in the race. Everyone will have a different opinion and I couldn’t back anything with confidence. So, how can we sort it out. Well the only angle for me is PACE. Coneygree should get a very very easy lead. He jumps well, gallops for fun and could well be hard to catch. These are experienced jockeys so they may not let him get too far ahead but for me that was enough to have an interest bet at 7/2. If he gets out and stays out I wont be surprised. If he gets caught by something else I wont be surprised. It will be a fascinating watch but not a race I would go crazy in. If you do have a solid pick I would love to hear it. Given the small nature of the field and the high profile nature of the race they all looked priced up about right to me.
What a puzzle and its not one I am going to solve! Not the kind of race that excites me from a punting perspective (too much guess work for one reason or another), although I will enjoy watching it. I will be having a small interest bet because it wouldn’t be as fun watching it without any money on. Firstly, and the reason this race isnt a preview, is primarily because my trends shortlist left most of the field!!
13/16 winners were top 3 last time out. 8 of those won last time out. As such 50% of the winners who won LTO have come from just 23% of the runners. Interesting.
15/16 were 5-7 years old.
9/16 Top 3 in the market.
7 of the last 8 winners carried 11-2 or less. No horse has carried more than 11-7 to win this in the last 16 years.
Now if you were to follow all those stats, and just focus on last time out winners (dangerous), you would be left with an ok shortlist comprising of numbers 3,6,8,15,18,19,20, 24.
It is as open as they come. The two that grabbed my attention, simply due to their prices, were Lightentertainment 20/1 and Chieftan’s Choice 16/1 both with bookies playing 5 places. I have backed both EW (with much smaller stakes than usual) and while I would be surprised if either won I think they have every chance of being in the top 5 which would leave an ok profit. Lightentertainment is in the form of his life and stayed on from the clouds last time at Cheltenham. That was an ok race and at least we know he is improving, is in form and is fit. Why is he a 20/1 shot? There is so much pace in this race that if he runs anywhere near the level he did last time he will be in there pitching. I just thought 20s looked big. Chieftan’s Choice could be anything and he races handily. So, I will have one at the front and one at the back. There are a few potential graded animals in here from the usual sources (and this race usually goes to a ‘big’ trainer) and there may be 5 better horses in the race but at least i have some decent odds to play with.
So many horses are in superb form. So many are open to improvement and many will have had this as their target. I am not really sure how you can be dogmatic about any horses chance and wish you luck with whatever you fancy.
Elsewhere in the 1.50 I have backed Milan Bound at 9/2 with William Hill. He is by far the most exciting horse in the race and given the form of connections I couldn’t resist backing him. Of course it could be a prep run for something but I would like to think he is much better than what he has shown to date. I will also be having a small play on Dormouse in the 4.25 Warwick if the odds are worth it. He just loves the Course and Distance and will run his race. However he is taking on a horse who won by half the track last time and she may just not be good enough these days, being a 10yo. And as yet I have yet to look at the race in any great depth. He is one of my CD profile horses who cropped up on the tracker.
So, all in all nothing I could confidently put up as a ‘Big Race Preview’ selection but hopefully there is something of interest above. Good luck with whatever you fancy on what looks a typically challenging Saturday.