Some Bets For Wednesday (inc a Profile Horse)

No pace selection today (nothing really stands out/badly out of form!) but a few horses of interest that I have already backed. I am going to look at a ‘profile’ horse, the 3m+ chase from Ayr…

Profile Horse…

As you know by now I like horse profiling and think it is one of the most powerful, and underused, approaches in racing. I already had a few stored in my HRB account but have recently started looking at Flat Handicappers with the aim of building up a war chest for the coming flat season. I will then move onto All-Weather horses and then National Hunt Horses. It takes time but it is worth it and  a lot of money can be made from this approach. What I end up doing with these profiles (added 54 ‘flat’ profiles in last 48 hours) only time will tell :)…but in the meantime a horse I have been tracking for a while has just cropped up…

3.35 Lingfield

Club House – 4/1 (BV) 1 point win

This horse peaks in January and February, at Lingfield over 1m and preferably when returning within 15 days of his last run. When he gets these conditions his form reads… 1,4,3,4,1,1,3,1  . 4/8 isnt bad, and neither is 6/8 top 3. Backing all of these runs would have won you around 20 points at SP. On the All-Weather he is 1/25 in all other races. Quite simply when he gets the above conditions he usually runs well. I expect him to go off shorter than 4/1 and in what is a moderate race he looks to have a good chance to me. It may not be his day but he should go in before the end of Feb and is one to keep onside. Hopefully he gets the job done in this race.

 

3m+ Handicap Chase

3.25 Ayr

Chavoy 4/1 (PP) 1 point win

I think 4/1 is a shade too big here. The fav beat him at Hexam but Chavoy has since gone on and won at a higher level and I fancy him to overturn the form. Mainly that is because he has decent course form and the pace angle could be against the top two in the market. They both like to lead and I am hoping that the pace is too strong and Chavoy can pick them off down the long home straight. Race conditions are fine and it is a tight race but 4/1 does look a tad big to me.

Good Luck

 

UPDATE: Chavoy ran ok but made a couple of errors and the winner looked to have a bit in hand, receiving a good ride from Tom Scu. He looks to still be improving and that fall last time clearly hasnt dented his confidence. Club House appeared to travel well and the jockey didnt appear to be moving to my eye turning in and got going too late. He looked to finish fast (or those in front slowing down) and i suspect his time will come in next few weeks. His record would suggest it will but time will tell. They dont always win sadly!

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. You mentioned some time ago Josh that you might do an over the shoulder video using HRB describing how you determine profiles – are you still planning on doing this?

    1. HI Dave, yes I did mention that and thanks for the reminder. I do plan to do this and will get something together in the next couple of weeks.

    1. maybe, he didnt half clout it and finished with usual rattle. Think the winner had a bit in hand, it was a good ride, held him behind pace setters when he usually tries to lead and did well to run like that after fall lto. At least we got an ok run for our money. Club House was interesting, jockey wasnt moving turning in and was never going to get there this time.

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