UPDATE
well when you are out of form you are out of form. I couldnt even read the pace right there, but that winner wasnt being beat. I deserve that. Playing in a crap race with horses that dont win very often at odds of 2/1. Out of form, confidence knocked. ‘Pace’ and me with that angle, is on a horror run and certainly on the freezing list.
4.00 Fakenham
Nouailhas 2/1 1 point (skybet)
Now this is at the skinny end of where I want to be playing and having thought about it I think he is going to win, I think he should be 5/4 or shorter and am happy to take this price. This is all about the jockey and the fact that he is the only consistent horse in this race. Now it is a weak C5 handicap but this horse is a trailblazer and without doubt i think he went off too quickly last time and just couldn’t last home. There will be no excuse with Tom Cannon on board and if he is good enough he will win this. He should get an easy lead and around this track I think he will take some catching. Zero Visibility does have some decent winning form over further but is very in and out. The rest havn’t shown much at all. Tim Vaughan’s runner is interesting but the trainer is only 1/47 in the last 30 days. All in all I think we have the most likely winner and although 2/1 is short I still think it is a shade too big.
Powerful Storm interested me in the 2.40 at 12/1 but this is an awful race for 3yo and you are guessing a bit really. He has been front running and his sire has a decent record at the track, as do connections. I think he will lead for the first couple of furlongs and what he does after that is anyone’s guess! 12/1 may just be big enough to toss the coin, i will leave that to you. Hot Right Now is also interesting in the 3.40 at 3/1 but he is returning after a long break. If fit, which the market suggests he is, he could well lead these all the way.
Good Luck
