Well my worst fears about Dr Red Eye came true but at least we got 11/1 about a 7/1 shot and while that is no comfort to the wallet it is the way to win long term. I think he was worth the risk and wont be backing him again for a while. I have noticed that he does appear to have a particular rest pattern that I will keep an eye on. His form when running in handicaps between 31-60 days from his last run reads.. 6 1 1 3 1 3 6 1 4 . His form for all other runs in handicaps outside of that rest period reads… 2 2 4 4 2 8 2 7 3 10 7 6 6 4 6 13 7 7 2 4 3 6 7 1 1 (both chester) 5 16 8 10 12 5 8 10 9 5 10 6 10 10 8 7 4 11 …. so he does run well at others times clearly, but as a future ‘way in’ it may be best to focus on when he has had a bit of a rest. Now he either likes running after a bit of a slight break and/or the trainer gets him to peak at this point to land a gamble or two, who knows. I will be sending some ‘profile’ horses next week to keep an eye on in the coming months..
Total now 6/25 = +16.5
In an effort to avoid the first ever blank week in the short history of the Pace Wins The Race we go to Ascot…
Dunraven Storm 5/1 (PP) = 1 point win
UPDATE: Outclassed, and not good enough, simple as that. I dont play in those races very often (unless at Festivals maybe) and that is probably why. On hurdles form he finished in the right place. The winner won it very well and jumped superbly.
6/26 = +15.5
Quite a straight forward bet. This horse should lead, will appreciate the slightly longer trip, and has the best chase form on offer. I just think 5/1 is too big and underestimates his actual chance. Is he the most likely winner? The market suggests not. But he is the most experienced of these over fences and i would rather take his form than the potential of PTiT Zig. I found it interesting that Nicholls has never won this race since 1997 (although I dont know how many he has entered) whereas Hobbs has won it before. Henderson won it with Simonsig, who was already a G1 winner. Josses Hill is following a very similar path to his stable mate and clearly is expected to win well. However he is making his seasonal reappearance and it will be the first time he has jumped a fence in public. The small field will help and he simply may be too good for the selection, but I am happy to take a chance on him at 5/1, given I think he could easily be the second fav and much shorter. Older horses have won this race before, the jockey has won on him over hurdles and the horse has won at Ascot 3 times. I think this trip will be more to his liking, we know he jumps well on the whole, and will not take any prisoners. If there is a race where the fav could be turned over it will be this one.
I know backing a horse that I don’t think is the most likely winner may seem strange to some people but the key to winning money long term is to back horses you think are underestimated by the market in relation to their actual chance of winning. My instinct says that given he has the best chase form on offer 5/1 is too big.
Nothing else really takes the eye tomorrow…our old friend Wreningham (who came 2nd for us at 16/1 southwell) runs in the 18.20 Wolverhampton. He is 0/8 at Wolvs although has never ran on this new surface. I was concerned that Luke Morris doesnt take the ride and instead is on Warm Order who he won on last time out. I can only think he had the choice and while jockey decisions are not always to be trusted i think that is a decent indication. Shaft of Light may also take on Wreningham for the lead however if he can transfer his last run to this course maybe he will go well again. I suspect he wont be much of a price either though.
Sharjah looks like he could lead in the 20.40 Dundalk and he has been very consistent. I am slightly concerned by the high draw, the inexperienced jockey and that his stamina appears to be stretched over the 12f. His recent winning form has been over the 11f trip and he may just get caught close home. However, he is in form, with the jockey claim he is well handicapped and he should go ok if overcoming the draw.