Arkaim ran a decent race, and much like Harris the day before I have no complaints. The one ‘could be anything but needed to prove it on the course, horse’ bolted up and was backed to do so. I am adamant that unless you follow the Venetia Williams yard systematically, or were close to the yard, the only way you could have backed that horse was to lump on once you saw the money arrive. He was backed from 8/1 into 11/4 and although he pulled hard he had any amount in hand. Arkaim confirmed the form with the Tom George horse and probably ran up to their level. While not the strongest class 2 the winner should be kept on side but you cant think he will be much of a price on his next few starts.
6/24 = +17.5 points
Dr Red Eye 1 point win – 11/1 with a few bookies.
I have deliberated over this race enough and nearly made it a no betting day but I think we should go for it on this one.
He is unpredictable, moody, and unreliable but he is a guaranteed front runner who is handicapped to win and who will handle the race conditions, if putting his best foot forward. He is also a double figure price. We backed him last time based on his Kempton run where he showed determination to stick on having not had an easy lead. Given the way he faded at Lingfield suggested that he went too hard, or he just wasnt up for it. The question is over his attitude and whether he keeps on going. He has the ability to win this race. He will get a lead and he stays the distance at the course (has won over 1m at Southwell).
As with a lot of races at this level horses take it in turns to beat each other. What interested me was quite a few of these are a few lbs above their last winning mark and could be vulnerable. However it is a competitive race and given lots of them have course form you could make a case for quite a few. I dont have the time to go through every runner in this post but Dr Red Eye will be up front which is the place to be and if he sticks on like he did at Kempton two starts back I think he will go very close. Many of the others also have a very low strike rate at C4 level. Pretty Bubbles would look to be the main danger.
Any result is possible here and it is a risky selection but in my opinion we are getting a decent price.
Monty’s Revenge… I think he should lead and has a solid chance in what is a weak race but his last 2 wins have been 3 runner hacks around this course. The last run was a farce, a 3 runner race where the other 2 fell. All in all i think he should be in the top 3 as for the grade he is quite consistent. The trip is fine, so is the track and the ground. He could grind these into the ground but 7/2 feels right to me. I am also weary of the unexposed Ben Pauling runner and there are a few of these in here who havent had many chase runs. If he touches 5 or 6/1 i may have half a point on but my instinct says to leave alone at the moment. We shall see if i have picked the right one tomorrow!