Pace Wins The Race: Selection 11/12/14

Re Cap

Brownville ran a cracker and was given a peach of a ride – a ride, and a jockey that arguably made the difference. In truth I thought he would beat the runner up a bit more comfortably but it was his reserves of stamina, and STD, that won the day. He clearly doesnt have enough gears for this trip and it was a run that confirmed he will need further in time. He showed a great attitude and returned a nice 4 points profit. He was available at those odds with both William Hill and Betfair Sports Book and it will go down as 4/1 🙂 I know most of you may have got 7/2 but given he was backed into 9/4 (highlighting again the need to use BOG bookies) that was still an excellent price!

So, a much needed win after a mini dry spell leaving the record so far as…

5/19 = +17 points. That is from a 18.5 point outlay.

Less said about the shortlist the better. I am not going to bother with these shorties anymore, i will just highlight if they were on the shortlist etc. They were all poor and I rather not dwell on them anymore. I am glad I picked the right one to put up and apologise if you backed any of the others!

Tomorrow’s Pace Selection…

3.10 Taunton 

Un Anjou 1 point win 5/1 (bet365) 9/2 general 

5/1 is too big for this consistent chaser. Simple as that. I think he should be the same price as the King horse, but alas, he isnt trained by Alan King, hence the price. Make no mistake this is a poor race but I think he has every chance of following up his win last time out. Now, he is not an out an out front runner.

I have just purchased about 8 racing books from Amazon, one of which is called The Inside Track, written by Alan Potts in the late 1990’s. He has some interesting thoughts on pace, especially in chase races – the main point being that you dont really want to be held up. Being a lone front runner, or on the pace, is generally the place to be, for a number of reasons that I wont go into now. Anyway, Un Anjou will track the pace and there will be no excuses. Mr Muddle and Unforgettable could lead and I suspect ours will track the pair.

He just held on last time but showed real guts which I like to see. The rating, especially with the jockey claim, is fine and he has ran well off similar marks before. The trainer is in decent form with 3 winners from his last 11 runners and the horse is the only one in the field with recent winning chase form. This really is a mediocre bunch..

The Opposition 

This is only Tribulation’s second chase and I want him to show more before I back him having fallen last time when in the process of dropping through the field. Come On Annie is unexposed over fences, this being her 3rd chase run but on her first she was beaten by what looks to be a lap of the track and on her second run she was pulled up. She won a weak C4 hurdle last time out and 7/2 looks quite short to me. Anyway, she hasnt won over fences and may take some time to adjust to the bigger fences. It is best to forget about Unforgettable with a chase record of 1/21 and although he may show something, i will never back a horse with a strike rate like that . Peter Bowen hasnt had a winner here either since 2009. Faustina Pius is 0/8 over fences and although the last couple of runs are promising, again i want to see him win a chase before getting involved. Not for me this time, but you would think he will pick up a race at some point.

That leaves two. Our horse beat Mr Muddle on the one time they have previously met over fences. This is also his first run in 220 days and when he was last seen over fences he was in no form whatsover. I am happy to leave him this time.

Money For Nothing is too short at 11/4 and I want to take him on. This is only his second chase however he could have been flattered in the last. The two market principles both fell so it is a hard race to judge. He is from a staying family and I am surprised they havent stepped him up in trip as he has tended to be out paced. Given he is clearly a nice type on paper, compared to these, and he is unexposed from a powerful yard, it is clear why he is 11/4. On everything he has done on paper he shouldnt be shorter than Un Anjou.

So, we have a prominent runner who has a decent level of Chase form. There are serious questions over all of the other runners and I think 5/1 is too big. He looks to have a decent chance and we should get a decent run for our money.

**

There was nothing else that stood out tomorrow. Bladoun may lead them a merry dance in the 1.10 but it is a poor quality large field handicap hurdle. This is his second run after a long break and his win last time was in a poor race, albeit he was impressive. 11/4 is the right price for me and I wont be betting – i think the market has him right. There was nothing in any of the other races however, ….for interest i like the Appleby horse in the 16.50. There is a bit of pace in this race and I think Kirby will track 2 or 3 pace setters and pick up the pieces. But, he has not been missed by punters and odds of 6/4 are right. This is a short price horse I wont be lumping on, nor advising you too – of course we know what will happen now 🙂

5/19 = +17 points. That is from a 18.5 point outlay.

Other Bet (not an official ‘tip’ more some ramblings about a bet I have already placed, in a type of race I do ‘ok’ in)

I have had time to look at the 2.30 and very nearly made this a second Pace selection, but just enough doubt for it to remain a ‘personal’  1 point bet. Ruapehu is the selection at 7/1. Young, unexposed and going places this horse could lead these all the way, if he stays. Trainer comments suggest a real test will be right up his street and he is one of the most progressive horses in this field. I think some of the others have a great chance but this one is over priced at 7/1. he usually jumps fine and is re united with Nick Schofield. The ground is fine, he is a good jumper despite the unseat last time and could be ahead of the handicapper, especially if this trip brings about further improvement. I backed Gregorian King last time at 12/1 when he won, however he has never won over this far and 4/1 is a bit skinny when you are asking an 11yo to do something new. Incentivise is another veteran who always runs his race but I would like to think something younger will get the better of him here. Stoney’s Treasure is coming off a long absence and 6/1 is too skinny for me given the fitness doubt. It would be one hell of a training performance for him to win this. Jonjo won this with a 6yo a couple of years ago but his stable is still cold and i want to see more before backing his. He is superb in these races mind and maybe this is the horse to turn the corner. Barton Gift is just too inconsistent for me and I dont think Handsome Buddy or Viking Blong will be good enough. So I am with a young progressive horse – I know I have often said I like a horse to have been there and done it – that is usually true. However in races over this distance you cant just rely on proven horses at the trip, as often there aren’t many to chose from. Handsome Buddy is the only distance winner (Incentivise has won over further, but is getting on) but I would like to think there is something better than him in the line up. All in all a live front running chance. I dont know if he will stay, hence why he isnt a pace selection, but 7/1 is a decent price to find out.

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